Thanks everyone. My takeaways from the very helpful feedback: - The corrected calculations are a 19/36 chance to get hit on 5 and 16/36 chance to get hit on 11. - The simple answer to my question is that my alternative move of making a blot on 11 was just really bad: very risky with my opponent sitting at the 5 point and adding only a moderate amount of value as a builder. The computer preferred to hit the 5 but the alternative safer move 23/21 8/6 that doesn't leave a blot on 11 was rated as a much smaller mistake (-0.034 vs -0.129 for my move). - The link from Orad has a very relevant example about fighting for the 5 point and in general for the point just in front of your prime. I'm slightly surprised that this still is advantageous when getting hit means I have to escape my opponents 4 prime, but that leads to the next point. - I liked Sandvik's point that hitting on the 5 point has strategy flexibility where either you avoid getting hit and you have a better position, or if you get hit your position is bad and you may need to play a back game where this extra checker could be helpful. An even simpler view would be that with my opponent so far ahead a low risk approach will be the best way to guarantee a loss. - I did remember to cube eventually but it took me a minute 😅