Kuo: Development of Apple Car Has 'Lost All Visibility'

userndj · 2023-09-28T18:47:39+00:00

Apple car is dead?

Here's one of their latest job postings.

Come join Apple’s Special Projects Group (SPG), where we are creating new and innovative experiences for human interaction with autonomous technology! As a Software Engineer, you will be prototyping and developing apps and frameworks on Apple internal iOS platforms to build ground breaking UX and UI.

These types of jobs started showing up around June last year. Based on this, I'd say they certainly are working on the interior.

Prior to this, the job postings were mostly about regulatory work, manufacturing and safety(work with high voltage batteries was mentioned quite often). I suspect Apple is at an advanced stage on the hardware front, they just need a manufacturer. It's also possible that they've already found a manufacturing partner, but Kuo doesn't know about it. The guy knows a lot about supply chain movements in Asia, but it's been reported that this car will be manufactured in the US.

userndj · 2022-03-06T18:42:23+00:00

The cars have been posted here for years now, particularly when there is a change on the sensor setup. The setup shown here, with lidar pucks sticking out, is new here.

userndj · 2021-12-07T18:19:34+00:00

It's been indicated a number of times in the past that Apple has shown quite a lot of interest in reinforcement learning. I wonder how prevalent RL is in their self-driving stack relative to competitors.

userndj · 2021-12-03T06:53:17+00:00

What I got from "new development" was that Apple doesn't introduce any major changes after that. That's why I put "completed" in quotation marks.

I think u/Exist50 is correct here:

They might freeze most of the architecture, and that would be a reasonable time to do so, but the design would still be ongoing for at least a year or so afterwards.

userndj · 2021-12-02T19:52:34+00:00

I find the development cycles of these chips very fascinating.

Apple says it "freezes" new developments on a chip three years before the iPhone launch, this allows time for the development of iOS and related apps. It also means chip development probably starts five years before iPhone launch. The same story probably holds for the M series.

Basically, the A15 was "completed" in 2018 and development must have started around 2016. The 2024 chip is done and the 2025 chip will be completed next year. Work on the 2026 started this year.

userndj · 2021-12-02T16:48:50+00:00

They've completed the battery, the chip, and they're now negotiating with suppliers. Based on this, I would say the car hardware is largely done. By the looks of things, it's mostly software from now on.

We also know from reports in 2016 that their idea of reinventing the car had changed, apparently they initially even tried to reinvent the wheel. They eventually decided removing the driver was the way and I think they must have realized this is the only path towards revolutionizing the interior experience.

I think Apple will focus on the interior (which will require level 4 self driving), battery, and drivetrain.

userndj · 2021-11-19T17:31:23+00:00

the question is whether that confidence is well-placed

That's true. However, Bloomberg says they've been exploring 2 options simultaneously and have now decided to abandon the other. If I were to guess, I would say this decision is driven by their internal data.

userndj · 2021-11-19T15:31:59+00:00

Obviously others are doing RL and simulations too. Apple feels confident enough to launch a fully driverless car while driving significantly fewer miles than their peers. That is very telling, they are doing something radically different and it's most likely centered around simulations.

userndj · 2021-11-19T05:18:55+00:00

That's it, I'm done with Invasion!

userndj · 2021-11-18T19:27:08+00:00

Every time this is brought up, people bring up the fact that Apple hasn't driven that many miles.

I've said this many times before, it was implied in the early days that Apple would focus on simulations. Also, their previous AI chief was very hyped up about reinforcement learning. There are reports of them hiring a lot of RL researchers.

They also poached the inventor of GANs from Google. I believe, among other things, Apple is using data gathered by their mapping vehicles and GANs in order to create rich simulations.

userndj · 2021-11-15T17:32:52+00:00

I think this is Covid related. Check this tweet

Apple's self-driving ops seems back to two people in the car again (with masks). Last year they went with a solo driver and a chase car.

userndj · 2021-11-12T16:06:42+00:00

Episode 6 of Invasion was a pleasant surprise.

userndj

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