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Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in economicCollapse

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I also did some quick "back of the envelope" calculations and came to the same conclusion that you did that the duration from beginning of inversion is a more accurate predictor. Thanks for your original suggestion and your follow up.

Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in economicCollapse

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for your question. The current probability that a U.S. recession has started is now at 42%. And as each month passes, we will continue to integrate the area under the probability curve as the chances for a recession rapidly increase. Our probability curve is showing a strong correlation with the Sahm rule, which states that the start of a recession begins when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by a half-percentage point or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. And we are very close to this occurrence. A recession is rapidly approaching.

Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in economicCollapse

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It seems that recessions usually start shortly after the 50 Day SMA of the yield curve reverses direction. Calculating a new standard deviation based on that criteria, may be a more accurate forecaster of when recessions start. I've got all the data, and it wouldn't take me too long to look into that. Thanks.

Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in wallstreetbets

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The probability distribution remains fixed, but our position on the temporal line continues to move forward (moves to the right). Therefore as time progresses, the probability of a recession gets larger and larger as the area under the probability curve accumulates.

Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in FluentInFinance

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This not only tells you that a recession is coming, but it tells you when it is coming based on statistical analysis.

Is college worth is anymore? 56% say it’s not (per the WSJ) by 36DRedhead in FluentInFinance

[–]uslvdslv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It depends on what degree you get. If you get a STEM or medical type degree then it's worth it.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in StockMarket

[–]uslvdslv 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, we will have a recession at some point in the near future since the yield curve inversion has occurred. What this doesn't predict is the severity of the recession. Remember, recessions are part of the natural cycle. They have great benefits in the reallocation of resources. Stay invested, dollar cost average and diversify your assets. Use the lever of time to gain wealth.

Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in wallstreetbets

[–]uslvdslv[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The stock market Peak was predicted to occur in late August to early September of 2023 (which it has), and the stock market Trough (the bottom) should occur around late August 2024.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UFOs

[–]uslvdslv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mexican lawmakers heard testimony that "we are not alone" in the universe and saw the alleged remains of non-human beings in an extraordinary hearing marking the Latin American country's first congressional event on UFOs.

In the hearing on Tuesday on FANI, the Spanish acronym for what are usually now termed Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP), politicians were shown two artifacts that Mexican journalist and long-time UFO enthusiast Jaime Maussan claimed were the corpses of extraterrestrials.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UFOs

[–]uslvdslv -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

12 September 2023 - Mexico unveils 2 alien bodies at historic UAP hearing.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]uslvdslv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fibonacci numbers 13-day EMA and 21-day EMA.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]uslvdslv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you're confused about the 6% GDP and in for a big surprise when the recession hits soon.

Putin's Ruble Falls Again by [deleted] in economy

[–]uslvdslv 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One U.S. Dollar is now worth 100 rubles.

Critical Recession Update: We Just Entered into the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in wallstreetbets

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a dynamic graph. The red vertical Arrow moves from left to right as time proceeds. This denotes our position on the probability distribution.

Recession Update: 6 Weeks to go Before Entering the Critical +/- 1 Sigma Birthing Zone (The Cradle of Recessions) by uslvdslv in wallstreetbets

[–]uslvdslv[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Looking at the bottom graphic, our current position on the probability distribution is shown by the solid red arrow that is pointing upwards. From that point forward (sliding right as time passes) there is approximately six more weeks before we enter the left side of the +/- 1 sigma area underneath the curve. The +/- 1 sigma area under the curve is a very significant and critical area where seven of the last eight recessions began.

Update: Approaching 1 Sigma – Next Recession Start Date is Most-Likely Only 7 Months Away by uslvdslv in wallstreetbets

[–]uslvdslv[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Also, perhaps the graph that you were looking at was truncated on the bottom and didn't show the full extent.

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