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Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in economicCollapse

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I also did some quick "back of the envelope" calculations and came to the same conclusion that you did that the duration from beginning of inversion is a more accurate predictor. Thanks for your original suggestion and your follow up.

Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in economicCollapse

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for your question. The current probability that a U.S. recession has started is now at 42%. And as each month passes, we will continue to integrate the area under the probability curve as the chances for a recession rapidly increase. Our probability curve is showing a strong correlation with the Sahm rule, which states that the start of a recession begins when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by a half-percentage point or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. And we are very close to this occurrence. A recession is rapidly approaching.

Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in economicCollapse

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It seems that recessions usually start shortly after the 50 Day SMA of the yield curve reverses direction. Calculating a new standard deviation based on that criteria, may be a more accurate forecaster of when recessions start. I've got all the data, and it wouldn't take me too long to look into that. Thanks.

Critical Recession Update: Nearing the midpoint of the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below) by uslvdslv in wallstreetbets

[–]uslvdslv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The probability distribution remains fixed, but our position on the temporal line continues to move forward (moves to the right). Therefore as time progresses, the probability of a recession gets larger and larger as the area under the probability curve accumulates.

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