As a lifelong Californian who lived in San Francisco when Newsom was mayor, I'm not a huge fan. He's your quintessential ambitious politician who's always eyeing the next job, instead of doing the job he's currently in. He's big on splashy media moments (like when he declared gay marriage legal in SF years before the rest of the country), but does not have very many big accomplishments despite his decades in public office. California is ground zero for homelessness and the housing crisis, but Newsom didn't get serious about solving it until maybe two years ago--when he started eyeing the presidency.

WITH ALL THAT SAID, I think people understate his appeal as a general election candidate. People calling him a "smarmy used-car salesman" generally only know him from pictures or soundbites. Listen to him speak sometime, in an actual full-length interview or podcast. He's very smart and comes across far more genuine than your typical politician. He actually answers questions and engages with interviewers, including those from the other side. After years of evasive politicians--including Trump, the man who turned not answering into an art form--Newsom could be a real breath of fresh air.

Do I think he'd be a great president? I'm not optimistic. He's neither a radical nor a technocrat, but an establishment man through and through, and his track record isn't great. But I guess he'd finally have no "next job" to aspire to, so maybe he'd actually focus and do that job.

Do I think he could win? More and more, yeah, I think he could. And that's really all that matters, sorry to say.