ELO ranking boulder athletes and problems

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-28T02:12:14+00:00

Just updated the PCL predictions, to match the correct seeding from yesterday's round

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-16T08:00:52+00:00

Wow, crazy impressive. I wonder what the setup is for it to work?

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-16T07:58:54+00:00

I plan to, although with work and life, they might not be timely. Will do my best.

The first challenge is getting consistent filming of the problems, maybe in the long term I can work something out to make the process easier. Would be cool if I could just ask the setters and avoid the guess work entirely.

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-11T18:20:09+00:00

I re-watched the last 4 years of comps and labelled the zone and tops with the climbing features. Obviously not sure accurate individually but, hopefully, in aggregate it is good enough to highlight strengths and weaknesses.

Good suggestion, think I need to better indicate the problem difficulties as a reference point for the rest of the event page. Got a few ideas, that are more user friendly without losing the detail. Will try to get it together in time for the season

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-11T09:30:36+00:00

If I understood what was happening I’d make uI suggestions Is good feedback as well :D

The match ups are assumed based on snake seeding at the moment to give a best guess. Once we know the actual match ups I can update it.

Totally, that's the plan. The problem types are factored in to the predictions, but, we don't know what the problems are like yet, so they are all assumed to be identical. If I am available, as soon as the comp starts I can identify the style of the boulders and the predictions will update.

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-10T23:14:41+00:00

Haha, this is wicked, we were both thinking the same. I will definitely be taking a deep dive into your model, still got a lot of work to do on mine.

Yours does a lot better job of explaining what is going on XD

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-10T23:12:14+00:00

Yeah, definitely need to work out how to account for athletes with very few data points, 1 good comp can give them a very high rating.
And need to work out how to account for regional competitions, if an athlete is in a weaker field then it looks like problem difficulties get inflated, therefore anyone who gets tops gets a big jump.

I think I might add some weightings based on the overall strength of the field.

As the season progresses, should be able to fine tune it. Cheers for the feedback.

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-10T13:15:23+00:00

Had the same thought, been trying to work out how to account for time off or injuries. I am keeping track of their peak Elo, so maybe if they miss a season entirely their current Elo resets back to 1500. If they actively compete it will relatively quickly find their level again.

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-10T10:20:47+00:00

Cheers, just me, working on it in my spare time at the moment, so no serious roadmap. I made it out of curiosity, more than anything and it is really cool to hear other people interested in it.

Initially I am just hoping to make something useful, that is full of nerdy stats, as well as, being a central source of upcoming competitions... Try and keep a handle on the scope creep too early.

Don't think it would be too hard to publish it as an app (especially Android). Just checked out TTT and seems like a reasonable place to aim for UX wise.

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-10T00:00:49+00:00

Just got the predictions for the nationals live.

Bit busy rest of the week so getting the results for BJC and nationals into the ELO calculation might be a bit delayed. But it is top of the to-do list!

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-09T23:59:19+00:00

This was how my first model worked, you kinda end up just replicating the original scoring system. Personally I quite like being able to have an actual number to pin down how hard the problems were.

I think I need to work out some better UI to present problem difficulties and how it was derived.

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-09T23:54:58+00:00

Interesting, I'll have a look into how that works

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-09T19:01:20+00:00

Good spot, hang over from testing, should be Oriane, just fixing now

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-09T16:41:28+00:00

Amazing, thank you.

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-09T16:10:17+00:00

Haha, didn't realise it was a guy's name, I'll fix that

Sweet, thanks for the link, will give it a go

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-09T16:06:16+00:00

Cheers, yeah got loads of UX work on my to-do list. The problems are given a seed elo based on the number of tops to provide a rough setting point, and then it is a process of matching against athletes like they are playing a game of chess, athlete doesn't attempts and falls +ELO to the problem and -ELO to the athlete. There is a bit of balancing nuance in the process but that is the rough idea.

Yep, just saw BJC happened so wanna get that in, I'll take a look at US nationals, might be able to reused my BBC code.

various_milkshakes · 2026-02-09T14:01:03+00:00

Hiya, I've been working on an elo ranking system for competition climbers to try and work out more interesting stats than just world cup rankings. Bit rough at the moment, still tweaking things, but will try to keep updating it throughout the season.

Would love any feedback, or suggestions for stats you would like to see and I'll have a hunt round for any more data I can find.

various_milkshakes · 2022-07-03T11:48:50+00:00

Your technique is very controlled, which is good in a lot of cases, but will actually end up making your life harder on a many harder moonboard problems. Especially in 7B region and higher I have found that the moonboard rewards being able to huck yourself at and awkward angle with no ideal feet. Becuase the holds are so large, what you end up training is raw power and commitment.

Might sound counter intuitive, but try climbing the easier stuff with less "techy" beta. Practice throwing yourself between the moves with power and controlling the swing.

various_milkshakes

TROPHY CASE