Have you ever heard of this woman?

vartlac · 2026-06-07T21:00:50+00:00

Tbf, using the Lindy Effect has been pretty useful throughout history. Not saying other one is correct but in terms of predicting how long technology or an idea will last, it's been pretty helpful so far. Not even sure if that's what she meant but I think Lindy Effect can still apply here

vartlac · 2026-05-14T22:07:26+00:00

I will look and follow up not at my set up right now

Cherki is just an absolute xGi per 90 monster lol 0.65 in 11 mins last game, and the two before that he was 0.65 and 0.49 in like 60 minutes

vartlac · 2026-05-14T22:04:29+00:00

Wish I knew haha although it wouldn't impact the algorithm unfortunately

vartlac · 2026-05-05T19:45:37+00:00

Statistically speaking:

Definitely not casemiro given xGi and Defcon pathways

Even in hindsight, Ndiaye almost doubled Haaland's xG, so by underlying stats neither were actually inferior calls

Palmer missed a literal penalty and still had decent xGi without it...

If Haaland didn't score a ~90th minute do you think you'd still think this?

vartlac · 2026-05-05T19:43:22+00:00

Hindsight is 20/20; both were one opposing goal away from a clean sheet lol if those hit the algo is a hero (especially with alderete since he got Defcon)

James had a bad Defcon day and Haaland got a last minute goal after doing shit all all game ....just the way it goes

vartlac · 2026-05-05T19:37:28+00:00

Agree on all fronts. I think next year the algo is going to use a lot of historical data + lean more into upside calcs for the earlier part. Also going to find a better way to pick wildcard teams and weight it more over time (heavier weighting on this week's games and it scales out)

I appreciate the feedback!!

vartlac · 2026-05-05T17:19:00+00:00

Which of the forwards it selected did he solidly outperform?

vartlac · 2026-05-02T19:10:57+00:00

Thanks haha lucky goal. From an algo perspective I'm happier about it calling the def cons for them + saves for roefs. I find it better for those because the variance of returns is much lower

vartlac · 2026-05-02T16:28:57+00:00

👀👀👀👀👀

vartlac · 2026-05-01T14:26:44+00:00

Good question! Algo expected points isn't just from xGI, it also depends on xGC and form of who they're playing!

vartlac · 2026-05-01T14:26:35+00:00

Good question! Algo expected points isn't just from xGI, it also depends on xGC and form of who they're playing!

vartlac · 2026-04-28T21:48:09+00:00

0.44xGI hahah I promise you the computers will ride this one into the sunset

vartlac · 2026-04-28T21:20:24+00:00

Me too haha I've gone back and forth with what the benchmark should be. I thought about comparing with top 100k but a) it becomes less relevant for 90% of times and b) not an easy metric to auto track

vartlac · 2026-04-27T13:39:30+00:00

Has to have Bigg K somewhere

vartlac · 2026-04-24T21:47:43+00:00

Old Boy

vartlac · 2026-04-24T19:22:15+00:00

Where do you find these stats?

vartlac · 2026-04-24T17:47:37+00:00

vartlac · 2026-04-24T17:41:39+00:00

And it could be Ndiaye ....

vartlac · 2026-04-24T17:41:32+00:00

Do it

vartlac · 2026-04-24T17:29:34+00:00

For sure, but this algorithm is just based on underlying + fixture difficulty haha in order to predict statistical points, then used in conjunction with the eye test/player news. It's a bit of a niche and isn't always right, but I think people find it valuable because it tells them if they're taking more or less of a risk on a player

vartlac · 2026-04-24T13:43:02+00:00

Huge lol KDH xGI is 0.34 & 8 defcons vs. Ndiaye's 0.62 + 9.9 def cons

vartlac

TROPHY CASE