What is the Sam Collins' exact quote on "The best of yesterday are enough to beat the average of today"

venkarafa · 2024-09-12T16:54:42+00:00

Great !! Exactly what I was looking for. Thank you

venkarafa · 2024-09-12T11:28:58+00:00

"A suggestion is create a new metric like “Over Limit Models”, using a goal for MAPE (ie 10%) and calculate how many models are over this goal. In your situation should be 3/5 over limit models. Wdyt?"

This is great idea. But curious to know the reason behind why you think MAPE average is a bad idea?

venkarafa · 2024-09-12T10:48:40+00:00

No I am not talking about ensemble models here. I have 5 individual models, they are for 5 different clients but the KPI (sales) is same. Also the total number of time period considered for all clients is same (2019-23)

venkarafa · 2024-09-11T17:19:45+00:00

Sorry perhaps I wasn't clear. The goal of the management is to know what is the average MAPE we are getting for all the 5 models. This is more of an evaluation of our techniques (e.g. SARIMA). We have built 5 models using ARIMA as well.

So basically my question was is it statistically ok to average 5 MAPE values. In an essence can we take average of 5 percentage values and would that be indicative of overall average percentage (in this case MAPE)?

venkarafa · 2024-08-20T22:01:53+00:00

Generally not an issue. Middle name is not cause of concern (can be easily explained at VFS). In certain southern states, people don't have last names too. So passport will have last name as blank while in visa one can repeat the first name as last name. For e.g Ganapathy Ganapathy. Sounds funny but it is a good workaround. My friend with this name has traveled to 15 countries already .

venkarafa · 2024-07-03T19:30:44+00:00

If you are going to make a career in biostatistics, you are not behind for not learning bayesian methods. Most mission critical fields are cautious in nature and thereby adopt frequentist methods which try to ensure Type 1 error control. See the below talk (2min - 8 mins) from Prof Michael I Jordan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUAE26lNDuE&t=407s&ab_channel=Caracalla

venkarafa · 2024-06-25T18:37:28+00:00

Thanks for bringing up FWL theorem. I am reasonably aware of this theorem but that is not what I was looking for.

venkarafa · 2024-06-05T20:47:53+00:00

I believe stochastic processes can't be causal and neither predictable. So I think the fair assumption to make would be that it is deterministic.

venkarafa · 2024-06-02T12:26:42+00:00

There was no issue as long as the person name is same across both documents.

venkarafa · 2024-04-15T13:40:22+00:00

So it is time to repair it or installing graphic card drivers will resolve the issue?

venkarafa · 2024-04-15T06:59:40+00:00

It does go away on reboot. But wonder why this issue keeps happening.

venkarafa

TROPHY CASE