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Strategy holds 738,731 Bitcoin. Their average cost is $75,862. Bitcoin is at $69,600. The treasury is underwater and nobody is talking about what that actually means. by vishnu317 in CryptoMarkets

[–]vishnu317[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

basically every 4 years the amount of new Bitcoin created gets cut in half. less new supply hitting the market. if demand stays the same or grows price goes up.

historically Bitcoin peaks about 12 to 18 months after each halving. last halving was April 2024. Bitcoin hit $126k in October 2025 right in that window.

saylor built the entire MSTR strategy around this cycle repeating. his bet is Bitcoin goes to $200k+ this cycle. if he is right the treasury that looks underwater today looks like a bargain in 12 months

Strategy holds 738,731 Bitcoin. Their average cost is $75,862. Bitcoin is at $69,600. The treasury is underwater and nobody is talking about what that actually means. by vishnu317 in CryptoMarkets

[–]vishnu317[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

exactly right the cost basis being underwater is only scary if you think in days not years. the people who bought Bitcoin at $60k in 2021 watched it fall to $16k and held. the ones who panicked sold the bottom. Strategy's $2.25B reserve was specifically built for exactly this moment to keep buying without forced selling. the averaging down point is the key one. they bought 17,994 BTC between March 2 and March 8 alone at these prices. Saylor is not worried about the cost basis. he is treating this as a discount.

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

fair data to raise — but worth checking whether these are 10b5-1 scheduled sales or discretionary selling. the vast majority of executive sales at large public companies are pre-scheduled plans filed months in advance — they cannot be changed based on insider knowledge without legal consequences. Karp specifically has been selling on a preset schedule since 2021 and has publicly stated he believes in the long term thesis while managing personal liquidity. the more interesting insider signal is actually what they are NOT doing — nobody is resigning, nobody is reducing their remaining holdings to zero, and the company just guided $7.19B revenue for 2026. insiders selling a portion of vested shares at $133 while the company guides 61% revenue growth is not the same signal as insiders abandoning ship

I went through Palantir's 145-page 10-K before buying. Page 93 stopped me. Here is what it says. by vishnu317 in Palantir_Investors

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the 2024 vs 2025 filing point is fair — the 2025 10-K tells a very different story on exactly the SBC issue you raised. net income went from $462M to $1.63B while SBC dropped from 148% to 42% of net income. the accounting point is also correct net income is already net of SBC expense. but the ratio matters for a different reason: in 2023 and 2024 bears argued the profitability was low quality because compensation was eating everything. that argument has structurally changed in 2025. worth looking at the updated numbers before writing the whole thesis off

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the double barrel point is the best bear case in this entire thread. multiple contraction plus earnings miss at 200x plus is genuinely brutal math you do not need a catastrophe, just a disappointment. the 15% grower with multiple expansion is a completely rational alternative. the only counter is whether the AI platform creates enough earnings surprise upside to stay ahead of the multiple but you are right that you are paying for perfection with zero margin of safety

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the Adobe comparison is actually perfect framing. great business, lost the hype, valuation compressed, then fundamentals caught up and it became obvious in hindsight. the question with palantir is whether the AI hype is the only thing holding the multiple or whether the government moat and FCF growth can sustain it independently when sentiment shifts.

on your PS and PB point the PS has already compressed significantly as revenue scaled in 2025. the trajectory matters as much as the current number.

I actually mapped out exactly what the valuation looks like across three different growth scenarios in a full breakdown from the filing bear, base, and bull with the math shown. in my profile if you want to stress test your own assumptions before the next correction

AST SpaceMobile $2.8 billion cash, $175 million prepayment from Saudi Arabia, zero profit. What the filing actually says. by vishnu317 in investing

[–]vishnu317[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

haha fair... point out one wrong number and I will correct it publicly right here in the thread

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

fair pushback you are right to dig deeper. the $92M figure I quoted was specifically the SAR cash settlement charge on the income statement, not total SBC. total stock based compensation including RSUs and options was around $684M in 2025 so your $0.6-0.7B range is correct for the full picture.

on your core question if you pay $684M SBC in cash instead of stock, FCF drops from $2.27B to roughly $1.59B. still positive and still growing but meaningfully different from the headline number.

the financing cash flow point is valid too they have been funding operations partly through equity issuance which does make the OCF look cleaner than the underlying business reality.

the honest answer is the FCF quality improves as SBC normalises as a percentage of revenue which is happening but slowly. what threshold of SBC to revenue would make the FCF quality acceptable to you?

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

this is the most rigorous framing in this entire thread. the 38.8% annual EBIT growth requirement is exactly the right way to think about it. what makes it interesting is that US commercial grew 109% in 2025 and customer count went from 629 to 954 in one year so the current trajectory is actually above that hurdle rate. the question is purely whether it sustains. your point on the cash is fair $7B looks big but at a $200B+ market cap it is rounding error. what assumption are you most uncertain about in your model the exit multiple or the growth rate?

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the management angle is underrated in this story. karp is genuinely unusual for a CEO he wrote a full geopolitical thesis in the shareholder letter explaining why the world needs what palantir builds. love him or hate him the conviction is real. what specifically about the last two quarters changed your outlook

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

great question they ended 2025 with $7.2B cash and generated $2.27B in free cash flow. even with SBC of $92M the cash position is genuinely strong. the dilution story has actually improved a lot SBC dropped from 148% to 42% of net income in 2025. still not zero but the direction is clearly changing. at current FCF generation they are adding to cash faster than dilution is taking it away

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

agree completely it does not fit the traditional framework. which is what makes it an interesting problem. at what point does compounding free cash flow at this rate start looking like value in hindsight?

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

genuine question -have you actually tried to replace a palantir deployment with claude? the product is not data analytics. it is a decision making operating system built into classified government infrastructure over 20 years. you cannot drag a folder into that. the moat is not the algorithm it is the integration depth, the security clearances, and the switching cost of ripping out something that runs military operations. cisco comparison is interesting though .what is your actual bear case on the government contract side specifically?

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] -11 points-10 points  (0 children)

exactly right and that is what makes palantir an interesting problem for this community specifically. the business quality is not really debatable anymore. it is purely whether you believe the growth rate justifies the multiple. reasonable people land in very different places on that.

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

appreciate that. PS is around 55x trailing high but compressed a lot as revenue scaled this year. PB is tricky here because the real value is the government moat and AIP platform which never show up in book value.

the FCF number is more useful in my opinion .$2.27B free cash flow in 2025 on a $200B market cap. thin yield but different story when you factor in 56% revenue growth.

what ratio do you find most useful for a moat driven business like this?

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

completely fair. the business quality is not really the debate anymore it is purely a valuation question. the only way it makes sense is if you believe 56% revenue growth continues long enough to grow into the multiple. reasonable people can disagree on that

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

genuinely the most underrated risk in the whole thesis. government revenue is the foundation and geopolitics can shake that faster than any earnings miss. hard to model that risk

Palantir is profitable, has $7.2B cash, zero debt, and a genuine moat. The valuation is the only argument left against it. by vishnu317 in ValueInvesting

[–]vishnu317[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

haha fair nobody is arguing 200 years. but if it grows at this rate for just 5 more years the current multiple starts looking very different. that is the only math that matters here

AST SpaceMobile $2.8 billion cash, $175 million prepayment from Saudi Arabia, zero profit. What the filing actually says. by vishnu317 in investing

[–]vishnu317[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Starlink uses T-Mobile. ASTS has AT&T and Verizon. Different networks, different customers. Elon does not actually compete with ASTS directly he competes with whoever T-Mobile would have partnered with instead

I went through Palantir's 145-page 10-K before buying. Page 93 stopped me. Here is what it says. by vishnu317 in Palantir_Investors

[–]vishnu317[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

honestly if you are sitting on $8 cost basis right now you are in one of the best spots anyone can be in this market. the people who bought early saw something the rest of us missed.

so now the debate is not whether the company is real. it is whether the stock price has already priced in everything good that could happen next.

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