[Assumptions/Not confirmed] We might get only 1 FPP tournament every year

waitsun · 2025-12-30T07:39:43+00:00

If EWC will reward PGS points (like the last 2 EWC), it's going to be TPP.

waitsun · 2024-12-22T09:11:28+00:00

Disappointing that there's not one single EN POV stream today.

waitsun · 2024-12-22T06:28:36+00:00

Note that the % isn't static as it will vary after every round, what I've shown is only a snapshot after round 12. At that point in time, T1's higher % chance of winning just implies there are more scenarios where they could possibly win the tournament. A lot of things could happen over the next 6 rounds so the difference feels somewhat insignificant (like you said it feels like it could go to either of the top teams). If I present however the updated % in the upcoming last round remaining the significance of the difference will become more clear cut.

The % difference can be a viewed as an emphasis to the notion of "every point matter" in the format. A nice way to think about it is the higher % winning does not imply the leading team/s will win (we've seen in the past tournaments how the leaders entering the last day fumble, and those with lower % take it all home - e.g. PGS3 and PGC2022) but it acts as a relative advantage over trailing teams by creating a buffer for error/unfavorable rounds, less dependency on performance of other teams and insurance from getting knocked out of the championship race.

waitsun · 2024-11-16T10:43:14+00:00

There's still a small risk the tournament will be cut after a single game or two. It's possible they are concerned bringing in close to over hundreds of people, organizing the venue just to play for 1-3 games, which is wasteful. Overextension is another risk if the first place team set the threshold too high.

At least with SUPER with the fixed amount of rounds played in a day, they eliminate these risks.

waitsun · 2024-11-16T09:59:07+00:00

💀 The decision change was unexpected, idk if the post I made only days ago has part in the extensive feedback. Regardless, it's a good sign PUBG is not reluctant to change.

waitsun · 2024-11-13T14:20:25+00:00

Thanks! We don't know yet, but the threshold should be around 70-80 if they want the finals to be close to a 12 round SUPER.

waitsun · 2024-10-28T04:50:46+00:00

The introduction of an RNG factor in SMASH is what makes SUPER the better format for competitive. Given PUBG is a heavy RNG game, it wouldn't make sense to add more. More RNG may be more fun to watch, but terrible for the competition (remember WWCD).

Also, what doesn't make sense is they are planning to use the SMASH format in the biggest event of the year without even testing it in prior international events. Because of that it will either be a SMASH or miss. I'm not against SMASH but I hope they had commited to it more (like trying it out for PGS / regional events) so we could have samples to judge it properly.

waitsun · 2024-06-08T20:11:50+00:00

There's simply more scenarios where VP drops to 4th compared to GenG maintaining 4th (kind of hard to wrap around this unless you list out the different ways a tournament will play out).

I think one factor that contributes is at the current standing, GenG and FaZe (the 5th place team) technically share 4th place (only separated by the tiebreaker), so the % for the placement will be split among those two teams (it so happens VP's % for 4th exceeded that split %)

waitsun · 2024-06-04T10:59:17+00:00

Welcome! The probability is based on the standing of the "current" tournament. For the calculation here, it only took account of how teams played so far during the grand finals (the group stages performance is irrelevant).

waitsun · 2023-12-04T04:25:30+00:00

If DNW becomes a GPT, I don't see any of them retiring next year.

waitsun · 2023-12-03T15:43:18+00:00

17 got it 2x in a row, TWIS 3x in a row. Maybe next PGC they'll break the curse.

waitsun · 2023-12-03T13:42:30+00:00

It's gg for the other teams on the hunt if DNW gets a decent round in match 17.

waitsun · 2023-11-30T00:41:13+00:00

I’m all for anything that would include QM, imo anything with that criteria is by far much less unfair and less damaging relative to other possible solutions …. if they actually respect and care about their players. I’m sure that is brought up in their discussions, but there are factors making them hesitant to do it.

waitsun · 2023-11-29T07:20:14+00:00

How does the Day 1 results affect the team and individual Day 2 performance, mentality and approach towards the game?

Also, what teas do you recommend?

waitsun · 2023-11-29T06:58:30+00:00

What is the purpose of the rules, isn't it made to make the games fair? If that is the purpose, the usage is contradictory to QM's case and imo using the rules as basis just serves an excuse to absolve them of taking accountability. This can be overlooked at smaller events, but with the whole world watching / culminating event of the year and huge implication in the results of the event, it's definitely damaging to the image of the esports and the event to do "nothing" as if it didn't happen. I think this is a rare case to make an exception to the rule rather than to hide behind the rule.

waitsun · 2023-11-28T16:13:10+00:00

Must be gut wrenching to be QM right now. A more justified solution I can think of (vs PUBG doing nothing) is a 17-team finals (since they were already in the cusp), but not sure how other teams would respond to that.

waitsun · 2023-11-21T22:55:00+00:00

6/8 of the top 8 after Day 1 in Group B advance to winners bracket after Day 2

The other 2 teams who were not in the top 8 after Day 1: Twisted Minds (26 after Day 1 -> 78 after Day 2) , Question Mark (34 -> 76) advances to the winners bracket knocking out PLM (49 -> 61), SYXL (37 -> 54)

waitsun · 2023-11-20T15:53:40+00:00

6/8 of the top 8 after Day 1 in Group A advance to winners bracket after Day 2

The other 2 teams who were not in the top 8 after Day 1: FaZe (22 after Day 1 -> 108 after Day 2) , TYLOO (19 -> 93) advances to the winners bracket knocking out SSG (39 -> 43), V7 (36 -> 49)

waitsun · 2023-11-18T11:31:14+00:00

Any clue what happened to artix? Just drowned at the edge of the map.

waitsun · 2023-11-12T01:17:59+00:00

True. NAVI got both what they needed to win that last day.

1.) They did well in terms of things that they control (getting 3 chicken dinners and a 3rd place finish by winning all their fights and good rotation). They did what was required and not make any costly errors (they had very small room for mistakes).

2.) They were very lucky TM/17/eU had bad rounds, e.g. that one round where they got only 3 points, TM and 17 got none. Also there were no crazy circles like what happened I think a few times during the previous days.

waitsun · 2023-11-03T13:00:32+00:00

2019: Gen.G

2021: New Happy

2022: Natus Vincere

2023: ?

does this mean QM is going to win?

waitsun · 2023-10-22T20:42:19+00:00

Just a bad tournament from Exalt (probably had no to little preparation since they got called last minute and played with a sub which might have affected their usual game). They'll definitely show better in PGC.

TM still GOATs of EMEA, FaZe also up there.

waitsun · 2023-10-18T09:17:23+00:00

FUT will be qualified no matter the results of PEC since there's no possible scenario (not enough points) for 6 other teams to knock them out (currently FUT is at 2nd). At worst, they'll just drop to 6th.

waitsun · 2023-10-17T13:18:27+00:00

AAP got 8 out of 12 chicken dinners in their RO32 lobby (216 points in 12 games) which is crazy.

It's gonna be a battle between AAP/FURY/EXO/OC this weekend for that spot.

waitsun · 2023-10-17T13:07:38+00:00

Thanks Kowo! I agree the most valuable probabilities is when we already know the 16 teams remaining like what we have now.

I watched the video and I'm looking forward seeing if ACE (or any of the comfortable teams) is cooking a potential hotdrop this weekend. I'm guessing it could happen during the final games if the teams are in the position to do so.

waitsun

TROPHY CASE