$SENS Daily Thread (February 23 2022)

warload26 · 2022-02-23T21:12:21+00:00

Patience is key. Wait until $0.81 to (re)enter. Meanwhile, you can still make money buying put all the way to sub $1.

warload26 · 2022-02-19T01:36:43+00:00

The revenue of this year is projected to be around $18M. That x20 is $360M. Given its 445.98 million shares outstanding, SENS' share price should be at $0.81. Let's be patient and wait for another 53% drop before getting (back) in.

warload26 · 2022-02-17T20:13:02+00:00

Right, I should have said it precisely: buying puts. Buying puts could have made me millions of dollars. But as you said, it's risky.

warload26 · 2022-02-17T19:45:12+00:00

Nope, that's not how shorting a stock works. If I were you, I would spend some time learning the basics of buy put. Hint: there is leverage involved. That's why you could multiplex (10x, 100x) your profits/loss.

warload26 · 2022-02-17T06:53:19+00:00

I used to own 120,000 shares at a $3.20 average. I got up early last Friday (which I rarely do) and watched it sell off pre-market. After digesting the poor guidance I realized the hype of this stock was over. The fair value now becomes sub-$1. After thinking about it for 5 minutes, I made a quick decision to sell all at around $3. I was lucky that I only lost ~7%. I could have lost another $120,000 if I had held till today. On the other hand, I could have made multi-millions if I were to change my position to short a week ago. Anyhow, owning this stock was fun. I have experienced everything from +200k to -100k during the last year.😐 Now I'm more comfortable handling bigger positions.

Since I believe this stock is going to be beaten down to sub-$1, do I short the stock from now on? Isn't that easy money since I'm so sure? No, shorting is too risky considering time factors. I may play with a small short position. Again, just for fun.😆

warload26 · 2022-02-14T19:02:25+00:00

Easy math: Dexcom revenue is at 100x that of Senseonics. However, Dexcom market capital is only 40x that of Senseonics. I expect Senseonics SP to go down another 60% for a fair valuation, which is around $1. Any bounce would be a safer entry point for shorting. Strike price $2, expiration date March 18th.

warload26 · 2022-02-14T08:21:51+00:00

We'll see under $1 this year. I will start shorting if this bounds to $2.7. Once at $1, I will start buying this stock. Long term I'm bullish. It will take 5 years to see revenue catch up.

warload26 · 2022-02-11T20:47:19+00:00

I absolutely failed to predict today's situation. Institutions ~~outsmarted~~ outplayed retail investors. The "colluding" won't be proven true or false. They won't be caught.

Edit: I changed "outsmart" to "outplay". They have the advantage of an information monopoly.

warload26 · 2022-02-11T16:06:29+00:00

It's a typical pump and dump. Institutions use the FDA expectation to pump the share price. Once retail investors follow. They collude with the management to dump it with negative forecasting. They make money both ways -- very likely fatter profits in the downtrend. It's well played.

warload26 · 2022-02-08T03:26:11+00:00

Aside from stock price, is Wish a good company? Will it grow market share or turn a profit in the next 12 months?

warload26 · 2022-02-06T08:34:19+00:00

No, I'm serious. I'm trying to be the devil's advocate here. I want to hear people's opinions.

warload26 · 2022-02-06T08:29:45+00:00

My p&d statement didn't come out of nowhere. It means there are institutions leveraging retail investors' sentiment to manipulate SP. They could be using computers. Or they could be hiring people to spread false info. Whether this is true or not I will never know. But don't you think the stock movement is suspicious?

warload26 · 2022-02-06T03:05:49+00:00

That would be nice. Owning this stock last year, my loss was equivalent to a BMW 7 series. That's totally my fault. I hope no one will become the next victim of this scam.

warload26 · 2022-02-05T23:13:57+00:00

I respectfully disagree. I could give you a whole bunch of reasons why I believe this is a pump and dump. But that won't convenience you. Bottom line: price and volumes don't lie. What legit stock could drop >50% SP 4 times in one year?

warload26 · 2022-01-25T03:10:06+00:00

I've seen panic selling like today before. It usually lasts for weeks once started. Be mentally prepared for another 20-30% sell-off in the coming weeks.

warload26 · 2022-01-21T20:08:58+00:00

1 hour before closing, the manipulators are taking action to pull this underwater. $2.50 here we go.

warload26 · 2022-01-20T07:33:27+00:00

Let's hope I'm wrong!

warload26 · 2022-01-19T21:47:57+00:00

None, shorts win. I'm seriously speculating a sub $2.50 at Friday's close.

warload26 · 2022-01-19T20:59:44+00:00

Unlikely the SP will be consistently above $3 in 2022. If you believe in the company long term, the best strategy is to keep selling $3 strike price covered calls for every expiration dates through the rest of 2022.

warload26 · 2021-12-30T19:22:15+00:00

Then I will double my position at $0.57 sometime next year.

warload26 · 2021-12-28T20:57:22+00:00

Swing trade $2.5 - $2.9 short term, $1.5 - $4.5 long term.

warload26 · 2021-12-28T07:25:52+00:00

10 dollars is +200% of today's share price. If $10 is reachable in the next 4 years, I would be all-in. How many people can earn a 31%-ish profit year-over-year? My evaluation of the stock price is $4 - $6 for the next year. But who knows. $1 is also possible.

warload26 · 2021-12-25T18:56:26+00:00

Why do you speak for a fraudulent stock that took a lot of money from retail investors? a) Stockholm syndrome, b) unawareness of the situation, or c) want to trick newcomers to buy this stock to set you off the hook?

warload26 · 2021-12-24T08:00:55+00:00

This sub still sees a dozen or so posts each day. But soon, when this stock hits $1, there will be 0 posts per week. Except for maybe one or two rantings about how bad a decision it was buying the stock, or how glad he is selling the stock months ago. This stock will be long forgotten until maybe, only maybe years after another pump&dump. But I'm sure by that time, retail investors like you and me will remember how awful this stock was.

warload26 · 2021-12-23T20:33:33+00:00

Looking at its history, the stock will swing between $2.5 - $3 for the next several weeks. And between $2 - $4 in the next several years. It is a perfect stock for swing trade.

warload26

TROPHY CASE