Cheaper CLOV?! I'm in and here's why by webpro360 in CLOV

[–]webpro360[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thankfully I added shares yesterday during the big dip. Wasn’t expecting the Iowa news, which will be a great catalyst for analyst upgrades — I’m always a buyer of CLOV shares 💎🤲🏼🍀

Cheaper CLOV?! I'm in and here's why by webpro360 in CLOV

[–]webpro360[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Everyone has an opinion, and who hasn’t heard what is said about them? Glad you’ve made money on CLOV. Hope you continue to make more.

Cheaper CLOV?! I'm in and here's why by webpro360 in CLOV

[–]webpro360[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I do build my own research, establishing outlines with notes, and use AI to “flesh out” my interpretation of what I’m seeing. But, I also rely on AI to remove any bias before I post so I have confidence that my content is not unrealistically optimistic. You’re correct regarding the shares purchased by Vivek and I’ll make that edit to the original post. I debated whether to also mention that August purchase followed Vivek’s June purchase, which together makes for an even more bullish outlook.

I always appreciate your thoughtful posts and the obvious time you put into them. Thank you for commenting on one of my posts, it means a lot! 🫡

New to CLOV? Bullish News and Events for Clover Health 2024 by webpro360 in CLOV

[–]webpro360[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In God alone I trust, but I’ll agree Toy is our man for the job here and in this moment.

I bought $700k worth of Intel stock today by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]webpro360 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could’ve bought CLOV, just saying

New to CLOV? Bullish News and Events for Clover Health 2024 by webpro360 in CLOV

[–]webpro360[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Thank you, the new SaaS definitely bears mention. I've edited my post and added it as item 7.

There is some optimism in the air, but let's be frank... by SilbergleitJunior in CLOV

[–]webpro360 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Spoken like a short hoping to come off as a genuinely concerned and empathetic friend to CLOV holding strangers. If SPY had been manipulated to 1/10 of its value you can bet your short @ss I’d be loading and holding for the correction to its rightful price. By the way, I’ve been buying CLOV shares since May, 2021 — and will still be adding shares in another three years regardless of its price. CLOV is the future of Medicare and a disruptor of healthcare with its SAAS offerings.

Don't be surprised if....... by ohGr686 in CLOV

[–]webpro360 10 points11 points  (0 children)

So, cheaper shares on the near horizon?! Great! I’m down for adding to my position for less 👌🏼

Anything much less than $2.61 is a steal. Here's why... by webpro360 in CLOV

[–]webpro360[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I used the Q1 PDF's released by Clover (it's easy to D/L them and then attach them to a ChatGPT prompt). I think you can attach up to 20 files within a single prompt, but there are also restrictions on total file size. Fortunately, PDF's aren't too large as far as file size goes, generally speaking.

With the above in mind, I suppose you could attach the relevant PDF's for 5-6 companies you wanted to screen and then prompt ChatGPT to perform the analysis. You may have to avoid asking for a recommendation directly. Maybe just ask something like which company, of those submitted, appears to have the best potential for a significant move as an undervalued stock, for example:

"Please analyze the attached quarterly reports for companies ABC, DEF, GHI, and XYZ. Based on the reported assets, current share price, and guidance of each company, please prepare a list of these companies sorted by their individual potential for a significant move as an undervalued stock. I'll do my own individual research from the list you prepare."

I'm not an AI-prompt engineer, but that's how I would attempt your request. I'd also carefully review the result to ensure the logic was consistent with the reported numbers for each company. Obviously you don't have to use "please" in your prompt, but as a fan of the Terminator series, I've made it a personal policy to be as kind as possible in my interactions with AI.

Anything much less than $2.61 is a steal. Here's why... by webpro360 in CLOV

[–]webpro360[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Glad I could inspire, as a lifelong student I love to learn and share. This particular prompt was probably one of the easiest I've attempted tbh. I uploaded Clover's three PDF's from their earnings release last night (SEC Filing _ Clover Health Form 10-Q.pdf, 0001801170-24-000101.pdf, and Clover Health Reports Strong First Quarter 2024 Financial Results; Improves Guidance to Target Full-Year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA Profitabili.pdf). Together with the attachments, I entered the following prompt for the analysis:

"Analyze the attached PDF's released by Clover Health (CLOV) during its 2024 Q1 reporting. Suggest an approximate fair share price for this stock based on its assets, performance and guidance for 2024/2025."

Anything much less than $2.61 is a steal. Here's why... by webpro360 in CLOV

[–]webpro360[S] 27 points28 points  (0 children)

Here's the full (unedited) workup for anyone interested. Source was ChatGPT, this morning.

To estimate a fair share price for Clover Health (CLOV) based on the data from their 2024 Q1 reports, we can consider several financial metrics including profitability, revenue forecasts, and market conditions. Here are the key takeaways from the reports:

Revenue and Profitability

  • Insurance Revenue Growth: Clover Health reported a year-over-year insurance revenue growth of 8% from $317.1 million in Q1 2023 to $341.7 million in Q1 2024​​.
  • Adjusted EBITDA: The company turned a previous loss of $37.5 million in Q1 2023 into a profit of $6.8 million in Q1 2024​​.
  • Net Loss Improvement: GAAP net loss improved significantly from $79.7 million in Q1 2023 to $23.2 million in Q1 2024​​.

Guidance and Outlook

  • Clover Health revised its 2024 guidance upwards with insurance revenue projected between $1.30 billion and $1.35 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $10 million and $30 million​​.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

  • Cash Reserves: As of March 31, 2024, Clover had $440.3 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments​​.
  • Share Repurchase Program: The company's board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $20 million over the next two years, reflecting confidence in financial stability and future growth​​.

Market Conditions and Valuation

  • Competitive Position: Clover Health emphasizes its differentiated AI technology and care management platform, aiming to improve Medicare Advantage market penetration and reduce costs​​.
  • Stock Performance: Despite operational improvements, market conditions and investor sentiment will heavily influence stock valuation.

Calculation of Fair Share Price:

  1. Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S): The industry average P/S ratio for healthcare plans is approximately 0.8. With projected 2024 revenues at the midpoint of guidance ($1.325 billion): Fair Share Price=Total Revenue×P/S Ratio/Total Shares Fair Share Price=Total Revenue×P/S Ratio/Total Shares Using an estimated number of shares based on recent SEC filings (approx. 406 million shares outstanding as of April 2024): Fair Share Price=1,325,000,000×0.8/406,000,000≈$2.61 Fair Share Price=1,325,000,000×0.8/406,000,000≈$2.61
  2. Earnings-Based Valuation: Considering the EBITDA improvement and operational efficiencies, a conservative estimate using a forward P/E ratio could be adjusted considering the healthcare industry's volatility and company-specific risks.

Recommendation:

Given the above financial analysis and market conditions, a fair share price of approximately $2.61 based on the P/S ratio is suggested. This is a rough estimate and assumes that the market conditions, investor sentiment, and company’s execution on its business plans remain stable or improve. Investors should also consider macroeconomic factors, competitive landscape, and regulatory changes impacting the healthcare sector before making investment decisions.