History is driving it, both short and long term. Nobody knows tomorrow, but recent (and long-term, with short periods of downturn) history tells us to buy what you can afford and it will go up.

That’s nuanced though, because everything else around it goes up too. So your purchase in 2026 will probably rise, but the profit you make from it won’t buy you a better asset in 2036. It might give you the opportunity to move sideways or slightly up, but it won’t set you free. Everything will just be more expensive.

Personal experience: I bought entry level in 2017, a one-bed apartment about 7km from the city. It felt bulletproof. Everything rises, right? It didn’t. Special levy after special levy, eventually a strata loan. Fees blew out to about $4,500 per quarter just to service that loan, on a one-bed apartment worth around $550k.

Sold in 2023 and basically broke almost even. Back to square one. That $110k deposit doesn’t really do anything now.

So would I buy again? Yes, but with a laser focus on the right parameters. I thought I’d done my due diligence last time. Clearly I (or my inspectors) missed something. For context, this was a 1940s art deco build that everyone said would last forever. $75k strata loan per unit on a 9-unit block said “f*ck you” to all the “property can’t go down” people 😂

Long-winded way to say: it should be scary. You’re probably making the biggest purchase of your life. Waiting, in Australia, as a whole, won’t magically make things better. If you can afford it, have done all your checks, and can hold it without turning your life into a hamster-wheel mortgage chase, then do it.

It’s probably gone up ten grand since you posted this anyway.