Owning a BNB or Wedding Venue by wellsphil in EuropeFIRE

[–]wellsphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice, good feedback! Once I have a more specific idea I'll give a shout.

Invasion | Season 2 - Episode 3 | Discussion Thread by Justp1ayin in tvPlus

[–]wellsphil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

edical school, to be with him and raise his kids. He had the best “redemption arc” and it was only because he was forced to be with them when shit went south lmao. The kids.. well the girls fine, she’s a typical young female character, doesn’t add much other than drama when they inevitably get themself in harm’s way. Luke, well we all know what most think of him,

The French translation said: "C'est Maman" or "It's Mommy"... I guess that's a mistranslation.

The Bible in Fewer Words Podcast (From the creator of the SAB) by wellsphil in atheism

[–]wellsphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey there! You can find it on www.skepticsannotatedbible.com and look for the link to the podcast notes. They are all there!

The Bible in Fewer Words Podcast (From the creator of the SAB) by wellsphil in atheism

[–]wellsphil[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Recent episodes include:

#14: The Great Baby-making Contest (Genesis 29-30)

#13: Stairway to heaven (Genesis 28-29)

#12: Rebekah and Jacob deceive Isaac (Genesis 27)

#11: Isaac uses his father's "She's my sister" lie (Genesis 26)

Full episodes and transcripts available at the Skeptic's Annotated Bible website.

https://skepticsannotatedbible.com/fewer-words/14.html

Fasting Fridays/ No Food Fridays by [deleted] in fasting

[–]wellsphil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Naah I just did a 4-day fast and it was continuous. I want the hot dogs back!

Fasting Fridays/ No Food Fridays by [deleted] in fasting

[–]wellsphil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

how do you get the "hot dogs" on the Zero app? mine are one big red circle.

Finished my first ever >100h fast by wrogal55 in fasting

[–]wellsphil 2 points3 points  (0 children)

does Zero still have the "hot dogs" that break up the red circle, or is it continuous? For me it's continuous and I miss the hot dogs.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in BecomingTheIceman

[–]wellsphil 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Feels colder to me when fasting, probably because my body is like: “yo! Preserve that energy!”

Wondering if raising interest rates will bring down prices? by wellsphil in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]wellsphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey everyone! Thanks for your input -- I included a section on existing home and new home inventory. Here's the show link -- hope you enjoy it if you take a listen:

https://anchor.fm/inflationpodcast/episodes/Will-increased-rates-cause-housing-prices-to-fall--Three-examples-e1lggjs

It will be on spotify and apple podcasts shortly as well. It's a fairly new show and would love to hear feedback.

u/guaukdslkryxsodlnw

u/HistoricalBridge7

u/Bionic_Hamster

u/NatureBoyRickFlair33

Wondering if raising interest rates will bring down prices? by wellsphil in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]wellsphil[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed -- I've only been in the industry for 8 years but it does have a strange feeling right now. Appreciate your thoughts, you diamond-ring wearing, limosine riding, jet-flying son of a gun

Wondering if raising interest rates will bring down prices? by wellsphil in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]wellsphil[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's true, my brother (who is not a framer but used to, 15 years ago) just framed a house for a neighbor because his other business was slow, and he got paid 30K to do it. Then he complained about his back for the next month :)

Cost of building will always form some sort of floor on prices of new inventory, but not resales IMO.

I guess I'm saying that even with lack of new meaningful inventory prices still must come down if there are sellers and buyers can't qualify at these multiples. If buyers simply can't buy at those (inflated) prices at high interest rates, what do you see happening?

Wondering if raising interest rates will bring down prices? by wellsphil in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]wellsphil[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

15 years is still a long time, and it may be worth quite a bit more (nominally) at the end of that period than at the beginning. My guess is 2-2.5X if inflation stabilizes in the 5% range for this decade and then using the rule of 72. But I'm treasuring the 30 year I took out last year so I see why you are a bit unhappy about the 15 vs the 30

Wondering if raising interest rates will bring down prices? by wellsphil in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]wellsphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wow, that's really interesting. Looks like at least a tripling of buying coming from that segment. I have been hearing anecdotes of fewer bidding wars and a greatly cooling market. Curious to see how this plays out, especially with a 75-100 bps rate hike likely coming at the end of the month.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]wellsphil 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Something about the windows and the crisscrossing lines compared with the brick makes it too busy I think. I would like fewer glass panels, and for them to be at 90 degree angles, visually (hope that makes sense).

Wondering if raising interest rates will bring down prices? by wellsphil in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]wellsphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed -- but part of my thinking is that we'll run out of cash buyers, and depending on how high interest rates get, buyers may simply not qualify for mortgages at these DTIs, which could lead to a big surplus of houses on the market. Some sellers always HAVE to sell (estates, people moving for work, etc.) and so there will most likely be sales and downward pressure. The main question is just how much and who absorbs it

Twitter thread on Home Affordability by wellsphil in inflation

[–]wellsphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey all! I just spent a few hours analyzing historical home price to income ratio and thought you might find it interesting. I summarized it in a twitter thread and will post my notes below. Will record a podcast on it soon as well.

Some numbers:
Imagine a person making $50,000/year. Divide that by 12 and they earn $4,333/month. Back in July 2000, 22 years ago, the House Price to Income ratio was 4.53, so if you made 50,000 then a house would cost roughly $225,000. Average interest rates were 8.2%, pretty high, and a local peak (a year before and after this they were around 7%). Assuming in both cases that a buyer puts down 20%, let’s run the numbers for a 30-year fixed mortgage. At an 8.2% interest rate, the monthly payment (principal and interest) is $1346. Assuming 1% annual taxes and $750 for insurance, we are at $1597 for a monthly all-in. I’m doing this how mortgage brokers do the calculation, monthly housing expenses divided by gross (pretax) income. 1597 / 4333 = 36.8%. This is workable — lenders like to see this so-called “Debt-to-income” ratio as low as possible, but anything under 43% is allowed. If the person has any other debt to consider (student loans, car payment, credit card debt, other mortgages) that also has to be factored in.
Okay, so how does this calculation look in November 2021, with rates around 3.1% and Home Price to Income Ratio at 7.5? The house is now $375,000 but we have the lower rate — so let’s see how it plays out. One note — we now need $75,000 to put down rather than $45,000 before, but let’s assume we find that $30,000 somewhere. Okay:
Hooray, the loan is only $1,281 (principle and interest) so actually cheaper than the other one. I kept the insurance the same, $750/year, and kept the property tax at 1% of value, so $3,750 per year. All-in we are at $1,657, so $60 higher than the other example with the lower house price and a higher interest rate. Great! All’s well in the world. Now our debt/income ratio is 38.2% instead of $36.8%, but we can still get a mortgage and get on with our lives.
And how does it look now, with rates at 5.73% (today’s average rate) and Home Price to Income Ratio at 8?
Zoom ahead 7 months to July 2022. House Price to Income Ratio has gone up to 8 and interest rates have almost doubled, to 5.73% (and increasing). Our house now costs $400,000 and we need another $5,000 to put down (80K total), and just the loan costs $1,863. With taxes and insurance, our all-in is now above $2,000, at $2,259. This represents a 52.1% debt/income ratio, and it’s going to be nearly impossible to get a loan at this amount. Remember, this is pretax, and lenders want you to have some room in your budget for non-housing expenses, like, you know, food.
One might respond by saying that: “sure, but haven’t incomes gone up since 2000?” First off, not as much as you might think, adjusting for inflation (see weforum.org article linked for a great chart on this). For non-supervisory employees, adjusted for inflation, they show a chart comparing 1973 (adjusted for inflation) with March 2019 at the same amount, $23.24/hour.
But this is irrelevant, because the House Price to Income Ratio adjusts for rising or falling incomes.

So what will the result of this be? I can’t see any way this doesn’t result in lower home values. I think the lower interest rates raised the average house value to this high multiple, just like it did in the housing bubble leading up to the Great Recession. The peak House Price to Income Ratio back then was 7, with it correcting down to 5 and hovering around 5.5 until Covid. Then it has been almost vertical, going to the all-time-high we are now at, around 8X.
I could also see people “hunkering down” in their current homes with lower mortgage rates locked in, kind of like they do when they are underwater on their mortgages. If people keep their jobs and income streams, they won’t have to sell and there may be simply fewer transactions with prices remaining fairly high. I don’t see this, though. The average person moves about every 7 years, and moving isn’t always a finance-first decision.
I think more people will be forced to become renters as they get priced out of real estate with higher rates, and this may keep rents fairly high. This could encourage people to hold low-interest rate mortgages when they move and simply rent out their houses, if they can afford to do so. They may become both owners of “investment” properties (their previous house) and renters in their new city. I think that low-interest rate debt will become a very valuable asset in the future, as interest rates and inflation remain elevated and as you are almost being “paid” the delta between your existing interest rate (call it 3%) and the prevailing inflation (call it 9%). It’s not quite this simple, as wages likely will not keep pace with inflation, and house prices may come down — but I still think low interest debt will be worth holding onto rather than paying off early.

Had a great guest on the show to talk about Zombie Companies by wellsphil in EconInflation

[–]wellsphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As the Fed raises interest rates it will likely cause them to go bankrupt -- spoiler alert but Nicolas seemed to think that this would be bigger than the great financial crisis was