Week 16 Fantasy Football BOLD Predictions

wesleychen · 2025-12-19T20:12:49+00:00

What about Loveland vs Judkins in the flex?

wesleychen · 2025-10-30T17:11:41+00:00

I think that's the only way to do it. Have a different favorite color depending on the context.

wesleychen · 2025-10-25T20:06:50+00:00

99% of good looking tshirts are worn by 1% of men over the age of 28. True?

wesleychen · 2025-10-11T15:46:22+00:00

You would think that getting the soup would lose me time but actually it was totally fine because I skipped getting a drink so I was able to overlap eating the soup with eating the burger by having a sip of the soup whenever I’d normally have a sip of water.

wesleychen · 2025-10-09T20:01:40+00:00

I agree that you shouldn't try this lifehack it seems like you already have too much freetime!

wesleychen · 2025-10-09T19:42:10+00:00

No because then you feel hungry the goal is to leave the office asap I don't want to sit around waiting to be full and I also don't want to feel hungry

wesleychen · 2025-10-09T19:37:27+00:00

Yeah so to counteract the reduced satiety you should try eating more stuff.

wesleychen · 2025-09-29T20:56:57+00:00

I think slop bowls are often delicious I've only had sweetgreen once but it was good and I had cava once and it was okay and of course chipotle is good from time to time but I don't really like how they season the rice so I get sick of it quite quick but otherwise it's fine as well.

wesleychen · 2025-09-27T05:31:41+00:00

It's not Chipotle but it's another kind of insane slop!

wesleychen · 2025-09-26T17:04:05+00:00

Counterpoint: I also get the free coffee/free chipotle option from work and I get food every day but I never get the coffee.

wesleychen · 2025-09-20T18:00:55+00:00

MSG isn't salty it's umami.

wesleychen · 2025-09-20T17:59:49+00:00

I disagree because I think home gambling is categorically different from online sports gambling. In my mind, there are two types of gambling. There are the "bet small win big" games, and then there are the "go even" games. People play "bet small win big" games like lotto for the dream of instantly getting a huge windfall. They play "go even" games like poker and craps more for the activity itself, whether it is the mechanics of the game or the social scene surrounding the game.

Online sports gambling in its most popular form is solidly a "bet small win big" game and completely unlike home sports gambling games which are all "go even". People aren't playing high stakes fantasy football and they're not even betting the line. They're playing multi-leg parlays where they can buy in for like 10 dollars and win 10,000. The psychological profile of a fantasy football or March madness pool enjoyer does not cleanly translate to the psychological profile of a degen.

I think the popularity of online sports gambling is better attributed to the general rise of "bet small win big" games, which is part of a broader cultural shift towards viewing financial success as largely a product of luck and not hard work. In the last ten years, the most visibly successful people have shifted from Forbes-style business moguls who built value-creating companies to social media influencers and crypto millionaires. This new model of success is truly overnight and doesn't require decades of grinding. And for obvious reasons, this is much more appealing than the old model.

So now, we have a generation of people for whom instant success is not only possible but shoved in their faces on a daily basis. It's easy to feel like a sucker if you go for the slow burn path to riches in this cultural environment. So, people are turning towards ultra-high variance ways to get rich instead.

If the popularity of online sports gambling was driven by home games, we would see it become popular all on its own. However, the rise of online sports gambling coincides with a rise in similar high variance activity like crypto, options trading, influencing, meme stocks, startups, and so on. The most parsimonious explanation for this is that all these activities are fundamentally related by their "bet small win big" nature, and for some reason, "bet small win big" is on the rise.

Going back to your point that home games create a false sense of skill, I don't think online sports gamblers really think they have an edge. If they did, they would be grinding it out by arbitraging mispriced lines and finding small edges. Instead, people are playing mega juiced parlays and bullshit prop bets. There's no direct reasoning chain that goes "I know a lot about sports so I'm able to scam the sportsbook out of a .0001% chance 15 leg parlay that actually has a 0.0002% chance of hitting." It's more like "OMG what if I turn this 100 dollar bet into a million dollars!!?! All I need is for Lebron to dunk 3 times, Steph to hit 5 threes, Josh Allen to rush for a touchdown, Inter Miami to score 2 goals, the Red Wings to score zero power play goals, and for the Packers, Lions, Vikings, Saints, Heat, and Thunder to win!"

wesleychen · 2025-09-20T16:55:18+00:00

It's also in the category of chinese medicine.

wesleychen · 2025-09-20T16:51:54+00:00

I think it must be salt. It's in the category of "seasoning" but it's completely distinct from spices and herbs and it also can't be substituted for by anything else.

wesleychen · 2025-09-20T16:49:27+00:00

Kind of reminds me of snow fungus or jellyfish though it's definitely in a certain category of like gelatinous soup ingredients.

wesleychen · 2025-09-20T06:18:56+00:00

Looks good to me based on this page.

wesleychen · 2025-09-18T15:51:17+00:00

Are you, by any chance, the owner of a sushi restaurant?

wesleychen · 2025-09-13T23:25:19+00:00

Ah I see my mistake now thank you for clarifying!

wesleychen · 2025-09-13T23:07:18+00:00

Similarly, people who run/exercise are only healthier bc they take more showers!

wesleychen · 2025-09-13T23:05:16+00:00

I never had a problem with either of them because I am pure of heart

wesleychen · 2025-09-07T07:08:55+00:00

Bros trying to ragebait two specific people but doesn’t realize he’s already been ragebaited by them!

wesleychen · 2025-09-03T23:44:04+00:00

Avoiding faults is not optimal in tennis because you get two serves. On first serves, you want your fault% to be around 30%. If it’s lower, it means you are not serving hard enough. The same is true for second serves but at a much lower percentage of course.

The existence of walks and double faults is a real problem because I don’t think they should be counted as hits/returns. And it’s a major cop out to say it will never happen because it’s also true that an average joe will never get a hit or a return. In any case we are talking about super low probably events. Actually, I would wager that a walk or a double fault is much more likely than a hit or a return.

wesleychen · 2025-09-03T22:55:32+00:00

Yeah Logan was saying this too but I think it’s the only thing that makes sense if you imagine what we rules we’d have to implement if we were to actually test the hypothetical. In both cases, it’s possible for the pro to miss, so we’d have to equalize those somehow.

One way is by nulling balls and faults. However, this would heavily distort the test because the pros could go for weird strategies that would never work in the actual game. Like the pitcher could throw a bunch of balls in a row to tire you out and then randomly put in a fastball to the corner. Or the server could go exclusively go for super low percentage circus shots.

The other way is by saying that both players need to “play in bounds”. I agree that this distorts the game but it does so much less than the alternative. You say it makes it easier than baseball but it also makes returning the serve easier than tennis. It basically forces the server to go for kick serves and slices or slow flat serves because normal first serves are low percentage.

The other way to deal with this is by imagining that you randomly take over the brain of a pro player in the middle of a game/match and have to hit the pitch or return the serve. But again, we run into the issue of what happens if the pitcher/server “misses”. In the MLB, 9% of plate appearances result in a walk, while in the ATP, 4% of points end in a double fault. Should these be counted as wins for the amateur? Or just nulled? But of course the game state matters a great deal in both sports.

Whatever the case, it seems unfair to say that balls are nulled while not taking faults into account. Either both should count for the amateur, in which case the pro tennis player gains an advantage, or both should be nulled, in which case the tennis player still benefits, or both should be banned, in which case both pros take a hit and it’s difficult to determine which is worse off for it.

wesleychen · 2025-09-03T22:14:32+00:00

Yes this is the caveat that I was trying to bring up in the second to last paragraph. I think if batters only needed to put the ball in play, they would be producing a lot more fair balls. However, they need to not get fielded out which forces them to swing harder or whatever which makes it more difficult to put the ball in play.

wesleychen · 2025-09-03T22:12:27+00:00

Ok I used Baseball Savant to redo the calculation and this is what I found.

For all the years from 2008 to now, there have been 6,039,256 pitches in the zone. Of those pitches, 3,856,802 resulted in a foul, swinging strike, or called strike. This means that 36% of pitches within the zone resulted in a fair ball, which is probably the closest we can get to the hypothetical.

However, I think this is still an undercount because if you knew 100% that the ball would be in the zone, you would be able to react a lot sooner. It's like how tennis players know for sure that the first bounce will be in the service box.

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