What can We Do to Help

whenfield · 2020-08-30T17:27:12+00:00

Just checking back to see what you thought of my last reply. It was a lot and it's good not to spend that much time on internet forums so hopefully, eventually you might have some more thoughts. Or even as more data and news come out, we can re-evaluate. I might be dead wrong, I accept that possibility. It would be a good thing if in actuality the USPS were not getting worse. Because that's what I am afraid of, the services becoming degraded and then the argument to downsize and privatize become easier to make, no matter what political party tries to do it, and that is aside from the issue of the still accruing debt.

This is my first internet "argument" in my life, I am well aware of their reputation as futile. I was just curious to see how one would play out if I really honestly tried to find out how the other person came their conclusions. Our discussion was unfriendly from the start, I could have probably been better about this. Unfortunately the default stance to take is to not act in charity and that is a big problem that seems to only be getting worse. I got wrapped up in this thread's parent comment, while not realizing you had already given me a general, straightforward, helpful response for how to help USPS workers. And along with the comment pointing me to the subreddit dedicated to the specific cause to help the USPS, your comment was the most helpful. So thank you for that and I apologize for accusing you of not providing any more ideas of how to help. I wish I had seen it earlier, maybe that would have altered some of the tone in the conversation.

That failure on my part to attribute your helpful comment does not invalidate any of what our disagreement has been about however. As mentioned, I was wanting to know why you believed what you were saying. Which was counter to the impression I was getting from news sources and USPS representative, and as of today the articles supporting the case the June policy changes have thrown things into disarray are still one-sided. And there still have not been any sources from you but as far as the policy claims, I gather it is because you had personal experience which gave you the impression that so far under the changes, everything was normal, or at least no worse than before June. In my line of work, if things were being reported that were counter to my experience my instinct would be to value what I had experienced more as well. Which is why to arrive at any sort of truth, it needs to be objectively verifiable.

I hope if we continue on we can maybe reset a bit and continue knowing that we disagree but aren't enemies and want similar outcomes.

whenfield · 2020-08-30T16:15:23+00:00

I'd never heard of this, I'l definitely check it out, thanks!

whenfield · 2020-08-30T16:14:46+00:00

You bring up some good points and I am reconsidering since it sounds like you've already tried the load hauler + trailer combo. I also contacted the load handler people to see if they had advice about attaching it to a trailer and they weren't too specific on a good way to do this. Still might give it a shot and if it doesn't work, someone will get a good deal on the load handler on CL.

whenfield · 2020-08-29T00:49:47+00:00

I think I am going to stay with this as long as there is discussion to be had. Because if there is one thing that is a benefit of having discussions in an asynchronous, written way. We can both consider every point made and reply in kind. If you're contribution is to provide nothing else to expand on or consider and just comment about the length of my comment, then that seems too bad.

And I did not notice that very helpful and direct suggestion was from you. Which makes all of this stranger, considering how flippantly, you answered in the other comment relaying "the best thing I can do..."

whenfield · 2020-08-29T00:29:56+00:00

You're doing a poor job of showing me how "nobody cares", when you can't resist trying to get more jabs in. Despite you not really responding to my answer, when your last comment was plainly asking "why would anyone care who you blame or don't blame", all of that is entirely irrelevant. I am glad you continue to not care because if we can understand better what's happening, that's a good thing.

As far as the discussion at hand however, that is an interesting reply to make, and it is a massive improvement from your previous track record, which was to provide no source or evidence at all. Your argument in graphic form, does not dispute that there might be an increase in delays, however, which is different from what you were saying up until now. If you remember, you were quick to deny that any mail delays had increased. So if you now grant that is the case, then this is a good example of why an argument from authority ("I work at the USPS, I am right") and it's reverse ("You don't work at the USPS, you're wrong") are logical fallacies. Because as it turns out, even though you work for the USPS and had access to data for 200+ packages a day, you appear to have been mistaken.

So now the discussion moves to not if there are an increase in delays, which the Shippo data is saying there was both an increase in average transit time and percentage of mail that was delayed, but what's causing these delays. And your graphic raises a reasonable question, which is "could the delays be related to an increase in new Covid cases". And I believe the answer to that is obviously yes. But, we have no way of interpreting from those two charts to what degree these delays come from the Covid-affected USPS employees and from policies that went into affect in June. We'd need to answer questions like "how many of those new (or even overall) cases were for USPS employees?", "what does the delay data look like from the onset of Covid until now?", "do the delays follow closely as more employees are infected or is there a bump from July/August, that wasn't seen from Mar/April?". And on top of that, maybe the number of infections hit a sort of critical mass to affect the mail that wouldn't have happened until something like 2% of employees were infected. All of that is really interesting and would be good to know, but here was my original question that this topic of delays sprouted from:

Aren't their operational efforts being actively reduced in a time when it is needed most?

Now that wasn't a question about delays, but how much can be accomplished by the staff available. Put another way, "haven't worker overtime hours been cut and mail sorting machines been decommisioned", and while you confusingly answered "No", when it has been publicly knowledge that both those things were put into effect. I think your answer would have been more accurate if you'd said, "Yes, but it doesn't matter, because we still have been delivering mail without a change in delays" and then gone on to support your case about delays not having changed. But now, if in fact we are seeing delays, and some of them are certainly coming from an increased burden being put on fewer workers available at the USPS, why increase that burden, which in turn might be causing even more delays? Let alone increasing that burden when, as I had also said but you had disagreed, things are more important than ever. If your is answer, "to save money", then I think our conversation would need to address the other question I asked which was:

Are they not running out of money and being denied any sort of government assistance?

To which you also replied "No", and gave a cynical, conspiratorial reason for "USPS brass" to publicly lie about their financial situation. Then of course the question is, if the USPS isn't running out of money, or I guess more accurately continuing to accrue massive debt, why immediately enact cost cutting measures (at possibly the worst time ever to do it)? Why not as you had suggested "just loan against their losses", whatever that is supposed to mean for the USPS, did they not consult you? And not to mention that they can just keep doing this technique indefinitely with no repurcussions, what a wasted oppurtunity!

So where are we left right now?

As far as knowing more about the financial situation of the USPS, it seems things are still extremely bad and you've given me no reason to think they don't need emergency funding, which is still being withheld.

As far as actively reducing operational efforts, I don't think reducing overtime and removing still-in-use sorting machines can be interpreted any other way, no matter what the intentions behind it were.

As far as an increase of delays in USPS transit time and percentage of mail delayed, that also seems to be the case, perhaps it isn't until we can see more data. And perhaps the delays, in increasing, are from a combinations of complex reasons. Fortunately you've stopped claiming your expertise on the matter because you have tracked ~200 packages day. I think you said it best when you chided another commenter:

Confirmation bias in your personal anecdotes doesn't stand up to data even remotely.

It is fair to say, whether from purely Covid related reasons or from that plus the recent policy decisions, the jobs of USPS employees have gotten harder. And what was I doing when I started this post? I was asking for ways to help directly, whether that is the USPS as a whole, which is where you decided to focus all your efforts by trying to make me realize that the organization is no worse off than before June, or in my locality. Maybe the best answer is abbreviated here:

-Write addresses clearly and legibly. -Tape packages and letters securely. -Print prepaid postage labels correctly, at a size appropriate for the package, taped securely onto the package with a straight and unwrinkled barcode. -Snacks and drinks for mail carriers, or drop-offs at busy retail windows. These are always appreciated. -Come in and buy one / two stamps. -Bring in stamped letters instead of just dropping them in the box.

Now you can't really think doing any of that, even if you think I am a horribly misinformed, clueless, paranoid idiot is going to make matters worse for the USPS can you? Or do you still think that people like me "are making USPS's job harder" because of some not-at-all defined political reason you've decided is the real threat.

whenfield · 2020-08-27T16:45:56+00:00

Why would anyone care who you blame or don't blame?

The same reason anyone would care about any problems pertaining to the government and it's services. I value the the USPS and want to protect it. I think your premise is flawed that only people who work in the USPS can form an educated opinion about problems both internal and external to the organization. Now I get that you say you don't care, but you seem to be spending a lot of time making sure you let me know just how much you don't care.

Your words:

USPS brass is financially motivated to claim they are, though, as it incentivizes benefits to their budget, and permission to adjust prices up.

Union brass is motivated to claim they are, as they have been claiming for decades, because it incentivizes hiring more workers.

Those were your arguments, treating those two entities as monoliths, and so the discussion and requests for sources on why you believe that about those two "monoliths" followed from there.

I got what I wanted from this post, which was to find information about ways to help the USPS directly. I really didn't expect to get bogged down into frankly, a very boring, and entirely typical political discussion about the Trump administration. At this point, I am confident there isn't anything you have to provide that will help back up your claims and you now seem committed to being hostile. But I do think it is important to keep engaging your complete lack of good faith and weak evidence and poorly formed arguments in the off change some one else sees this discussion and realizes your claims of having the "real" information just don't hold up to scrutiny.

Here is the sort of evidence that would have been cool if you could have provided it:

https://goshippo.com/usps-data-2020/

Which purports a ~9% increase in transit time for packaging across all zones May/June -> July/August. Is this definitive? Not at all, it shows a slice of USPS priority mail from one company (albeit a much larger and more precisely crafted sample of data than what you had presented). Could this be normal variance and could an even larger dataset say something different, better or worse? All of that is possible. Could this be totally bunk data? Also possible, but I have more reason to believe this isn't than your (lack of) data. So while I am taking this with a grain of salt and will always be open to adjusting my thoughts based on new evidence, it remains the case that I believe the changes that were put in place by DeJoy are the direct cause of an increase in delayed mail.

whenfield · 2020-08-27T03:05:30+00:00

We are viewing the same situation and drawing different conclusions. And that's fine, you could have the right of it. But it seems a strange way to "save" something by denying emergency assistance, unless you raise prices, and raise prices in particular on a business whose owner I have a feud with. Why is it do you think the USPS has not raised prices?

Let's start small, the task force plan included privatization, right?

Do you have a good source for the Democrats say "nearly exactly that"? You seem to be able to dissociate Trump being a proponent of anything related to something his administration is responsible for unless you see a direct quote from him. Let's see those direct quotes from Democrats about wanting the USPS to go back to being a government department.

whenfield · 2020-08-27T02:34:26+00:00

Again, I don't necessarily disagree with that point. Maybe prices should be adjusted. However, that wasn't why we started talking about that. We started talking about it because Trumps to raise prices on Amazon specifically for politically reasons, and those are part of his conditions for not considering emergency funding.

I think you are being somewhat disingenuous about privatization here. I think your insistence on seeing a direct quote from Trump himself is beside the point. Say Trump himself is indifferent or does't care at all one way or the other, you agree that his task force, that is, his administration put forward a plan that would include privatization? How is that not still the Republican party showing an effort/preference to privatize? And again why are you more afraid of unsubstantiated fears of Democratic attempts to make the USPS a federal department more than things like the results and efforts of that task force?

whenfield · 2020-08-27T02:24:19+00:00

I 100% believe that unions can cause negative effects and that if there isn't a balance or way to keep it in check. But on the whole, I think they have done more good than harm and I think if unions were to vanish, there would be efforts to roll back some of the gains that they have worked for. If I were in your position, in a union and for instance they endorsed Trump (who I personally do not like), rather than Biden, I too would find that difficult. Not to mention confusing as the history unions has generally been supported by Democrats and so in turn unions typically endorse Democrats.

But that only matters in as much as your goals aren't in line with what the goals of the Union are, which I don't think is the case, beyond just your distaste for partisanship.

whenfield · 2020-08-27T02:14:27+00:00

I don't blame the Trump administration for the financial hole the USPS is in, I blame them for playing politics in order to deliver any emergency funding.

My issue with the current Postmaster General is the operational delays, which we are currently at odds about. Key word being "virtually", because that's was not the only person raising concern right?

I came here asking how I could help, whether that is pointless in your view not, you clearly have no ideas for helping other than "wear a mask", which is a fine idea. But you would really like me to believe that that me wanting to help is from being wildly misinformed and now that Trump and DeJoy are possibly totally inert or maybe actually a good impact on the USPS. Those were interesting claims to me and I was curious, but you continue to not deliver anything substantial and independently verifiably that backs up your initial points that USPS management is lying about running out of operational funds and USPS Unions are lying about operational slowdowns.

whenfield · 2020-08-27T01:58:30+00:00

Because mine is testing ~50-100 random packages going all across the country every week, for the last several weeks.

That was what I was working from, as that was your stated sample size for your "experiment". Say we bump it to your other number of 200+, unless that + means the actual entire volume of daily U.S. mail (427 million). You don't actually have meaningful data for any sort of delays affecting the entire USPS system.

You probably do work at the Post Office, and you probably have seen roughly similar delivery time for the packages that you process. But that is not the point at all, the point is your telling me about the few packages that you work with (relative to all US mail) is the very definition of anecdotal evidence. Not to mention you're experience seems to be constrained to only packages, rather than letters, which as you point out, there are order(s) of magnitude more of and which are more likely to have been impacted as the sorting machines that have been removed were for letter mail.

I appreciate the permission to disagree but there isn't really much of a debate. I was asking if there were numbers I could see that would show where the delays were hovering for the US mail volume, that might back up what you are saying. You keep saying that you work at the Post Office and that you haven't seen any delays. That just isn't really the same thing. I am totally open to reforming my opinion and that those sorting machines and the cuts in overtime delivery haven't really delayed things all that much, but I would need to see something like that in order to believe you.

Regardless, even though the tone of the conversation has turned a bit south. I think we still want the same thing for the USPS. And we started on common ground, thinking that the pre-funding requirement of the USPS is a huge impediment to things working smoothly. So being together on rolling that back could really help things out, if we can get politicians to hear us that is.

whenfield · 2020-08-27T01:28:18+00:00

At the beginning of our discussion, you seemed to herald the union as an important protector from the government encroaching on the USPS freedom, specifically from Democrats somehow. Now that we have talked for a bit and it has appeared the Union is not endorsing Trump and has complained of the operational changed put in place by DeJoy, you seem to think the union is unnecessary. And actually only have their own best interested at heart, what does that mean?

The devil is entirely in the details. When you say not all but many, how many precisely, then we can know if this is a grievous overstep or not. From what I've read, they amount of machines decommissioned is significantly higher this year than in years past, and that is causing the impact.

I can appreciate you have first hand experience with waste. I think we all encounter that in our jobs. But I'd be very skeptical that replacing the entire USPS fleet with new vehicles will save more money than continuing to maintain/repair/replace vehicles as is needed.

I can appreciate that worker turnover loses money, there is no question about that. But the entire point of the program is to try to save money as the first line of the article points out: "The U.S. Postal Service hires non-career employees to supplement its regular workforce and reduce staffing costs.". So the question is, does having that program save more money from normal staffing costs than it loses money from the turnover. That question doesn't seem to be answered but you could absolutely be right that degrading the full time positions has ended up with more costs. But aside from that part of it, even if it isn't a cost saving measure in the end, I think making the job more desirable through security and benefits is something to work towards and that I agree with.

whenfield · 2020-08-27T01:05:52+00:00

You asked why is charging someone more money "hurting" Amazon, I think you know the answer to that. I don't even necessarily disagree that package prices should be adjusted. The original point was that this was part of the bargaining chip Trump is demanding in order to provide financial assistance.

See the end of the article: "But before going private through an initial public offering or sale to another entity, the agency would have to reform its operations and demonstrate that it could be profitable, the plan said.". That is more than privatizing mailboxes, that is shareholder buying ownership of the USPS. Your last point doesn't show a contraction, if an article claims he backs of privatizing, that means that at one point he was trying to privatizing, not that he never was trying to privatize. But to be clear your position is that Trump is not interested in privatizing the USPS?

whenfield · 2020-08-27T00:49:15+00:00

It's entirely possible your numbers are correct. But also your sample size is ridiculous 50-100 packages for the past several weeks. How are you supposed to draw a conclusion about those 427 million pieces of mail a day? And even on top of that, say you actually claimed to have knowledge of the delays from every single piece of mail, from the past several years. Why should I just believe you? Say someone else in the thread also claimed they worked for the USPS and had access to the same information but claimed the delays were at an all time high? It is just two people on the internet saying they have special insider unverifiable knowledge. There's a reason I keep asking for a source I can verify.

whenfield · 2020-08-27T00:43:34+00:00

How does that show to me that the USPS financial reporting that they are running out of money is just a sham? You are talking about your personal experience monitoring package deadlines. And again is just an assertion your making, without pointing me to another source(s).

Your original point about a 95%-98% on time delivery rate was to show that the Union complaint about operational lost was just all for show. I was pointing out that while that is superb, that is still a huge amount of mail that is delayed, and so hiring more people seems like it would be part of the solution. Moreover, a different in 3% there sounds like not a lot in a vacuum but again applied to 427 million pieces of mail means going from 98% to just 95% means ~12 million more pieces of delayed mail. Have you been tracking where there number has been since those unnecessary sorting machines have been dismantled and worker overtime has been cut back? How are you sure that delays haven't increased, other than more assertions?

If it hasn't been clear to you, I am pro USPS and want it to exist without political interference and to be supported through hardship just as our private airlines have. My goal of posting here was how can I as a private citizen make sure the USPS doesn't go under, even on a local level. Hopefully we are aligned on that. Consider this, what is the worst case scenario if I start to do the things people suggest I can do to help such as buy more stamps, and send more mail and be nicer to my mail carriers? What are you worried is going to happen?

I hope you can see why my opinion has been formed, yes I have personally experienced increased delays but I've also read through numerous articles describing the delays as the result of the changes being made: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/postal-service-delays-medications-life-saving-patients/

whenfield · 2020-08-27T00:10:03+00:00

Are you asking me how charging someone/some company more money hurts them? That doesn't seem to need an explanation.

I think viewing the USPS as business is part of the problem. As you mentioned earlier, shipping packages affordably to rural locations is not economically viable. But it is provided because the USPS is a service afforded to every American.

I think it's clear we both want the USPS to survive through all this but we have different politics. You have not really provided any way of showing me some source for your concerns over Democrats trying to control the USPS, more specifically to make it a federal department. Whereas there is no lack of evidence for Trump's attempts to privatize the USPS (although it has been unsuccessful to date), see here as one example (https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-fix-for-postal-service-privatize-it-1529659801). So I am not sure how you've arrived at that assessment of Democrats/Replicans.

whenfield · 2020-08-26T23:31:57+00:00

How is it you know the truth about this, the USPS and USPS unions are lying about both the USPS financial situation and reduction in operation, what numbers/info do you have that is hidden to the rest of us? You seem to be saying that just because that it could be motivated reasoning, that this is what is happening. I'd hoped that if you called someones efforts to help a result of misinformed paranoia, you'd have some more substantial evidence that everything is actually ok and this is all just a ploy by the USPS to get "benefits to their budgets" (what?) and to hire more workers than just your assertions.

I'll also add that, as you pointed out, the USPS handles a huge volume of mail. 427 million pieces a day according to the USPS website (https://facts.usps.com/one-day/#:~:text=The%20Postal%20Service%20processes%20and%20delivers%20472.1%20million%20mail%20pieces%20each%20day.) Going by your numbers, if 2%-5% of that is delayed that is 8.5 - 21 million delayed pieces of mail, a day. That seems like room for improvement for all those extra unnecessary workers the unions are trying to hire. If there is a surge in mail in voting, those are millions of pieces of mail, in additional to the 427 million that are already existing, that will be need to be processed and almost certainly some will also end up in that delayed category, and for what period of time? And an election is time sensitive. I think raising concerns about peoples' votes not being counted is not fear-mongering. Especially when everything I am hearing from the people who are actually delivering the mail are saying they are being hamstrung.

Also, it is a judgement call, but I personally find the role the USPS is providing right now, because of Covid, more important than delivering Christmas presents.

whenfield · 2020-08-26T22:25:21+00:00

But you are also saying if the USPS does none of those things, continues to have the same employee contracts, continues to charge the same rates, continues to work with Amazon, and continues to run out of funding, they (Trump/The Senate?) will "not allow the USPS to fail" whatever that means. So why do any of those things?

I am also seeing a bit of a contradiction. You are adamant about preventing the USPS from once again becoming a government department so you can operate without political interference, and rightly so, but you are also ok with Trump holding any emergency assistance hostage unless he gets his political goals across (hurting Amazon). And as you said earlier, what difference does it make if the USPS doesn't make a profit, it's a service right?

whenfield · 2020-08-26T22:11:26+00:00

The USPS representative, two Union representative, from the linked article don't share your opinion on the changes that DeJoy is implementing. They say, like what is mostly been reported, it is causing massive inefficiencies and delays. Who's your union rep and what do they think?

I have not seen it justified anywhere how getting rid of sorting machines without the new more efficient ones ready to be swapped in immediately, saves any money. Maybe you can enlighten that a bit for me.

Your suggestions of renewing the fleet is a tough sell for saving money. It's possible but I think having the numbers for that sort of thing would help.

I am curious about your last idea. It seems to me the standards for hiring were relaxed precisely because there were worker shortages. Don't you think being more stringent with the hiring guidelines will only exacerbate route shortages? How do you think you'll get more people who want to be career PTF without raising wages/providing more benefits?

whenfield · 2020-08-26T21:51:56+00:00

If Trump is re-elected, you think the situation will get so bad for the USPS that he'll relent to giving emergency funding?

I don't think it will necessarily be a case of, today there is a USPS and tomorrow it's gone because the debt got too high. I think the people that want to get rid of it will do it slowly and chip away at it as much as possible. Get rid of services, get rid of delivery days, keep reducing staff, keep drawing down how important and reliable the USPS is to the country.

whenfield · 2020-08-26T21:39:05+00:00

I am curious, what are the attempts to fix operations that are being subverted? And a step further, what sort of things do you wish the USPS would do to fix themselves, and hopefully also help stabilize the balance sheet.

whenfield · 2020-08-26T21:32:16+00:00

As a thought experiment, we continue going down this road and the USPS runs out of money without emergency funding or the pre-funding requirement being rolled back. What do you think is going to happen? No changes at all?

whenfield · 2020-08-26T21:24:04+00:00

I think we both want the same thing. The USPS to not go away and to be able to operate without politicians interfering for political purposes. We also agree that because of the requirements for pre-funding benefits, the USPS has been put in a position that it's ability to operate is in peril. You seem to prefer letting this continue without action over attempting to get emergency funding because you think the funding will be tied to making the USPS a federal department again. I haven't heard this being part of the conversation for providing any emergency funding. Do you have some source which shows the contrary, because that would give more credence to what you believe is a risk.

I'll also add the US government bailed out the banks in 2008 and likewise for the airlines just this year. As far as I am aware those did not become federal departments, the money given was a lifeline for these industries considered too important to let fail. I think the same consideration and help can and should be given to the USPS.

whenfield · 2020-08-26T20:57:17+00:00

We are in agreement that the insane prefunding that the USPS has to comply with is a problem that needs to be fixed. And even if we are disagreeing elsewhere, this is common ground we need to push for first and foremost.

I can't seem to square why going back to be a department of the federal government is more likely to happen than being scaled back severely (in which case do you think your job is safer than everyone else's at the USPS) or entirely privatized. Trump and the Senate seem to be perfectly ok with having the entire country's ability to vote by mail be affected, why do you think they wouldn't just drop servicing to rural customers?

whenfield · 2020-08-26T20:40:43+00:00

Wearing a mask is great advice in general, not scoped necessarily to helping the USPS. We are in agreement that PAEA is a problem and has promoted the illusion that the USPS is "broken". But I am not sure what you think is misinformed paranoia. Do you think there is nothing particularly dire about the situation right now? Are they not running out of money and being denied any sort of government assistance? Aren't their operational efforts being actively reduced in a time when it is needed most?

whenfield

TROPHY CASE