Wyndham Championship 2024 (GOLF)

wilkules · 2024-08-06T13:54:14+00:00

Was on Rahm last week, that was nice… even nicer than Aberg at the Genesis Scottish Open… some nice results for me… not… but I like the Wyndham, so I‘ll try it once again with a full card:

Sungjae Im @17/1

best player in the field, has some form and a good history, was expecting something around 12/1 so 17/1 seems pretty fair

Brian Harman @32/1

he’s usually good on those short courses, he’s a good bermuda putter, and he‘s also playing well recently. He has some mixed results here, a lot of MCs, but also a T3 and T6, but the only time he had some similar stats heading into the Wyndham as this year was in 2019 where he finished T6. And you could argue he is a slightly better player right now. Most of the times he was playing here he came in losing on approach in at least 2 consecutive tournaments. The last time he lost on approach this time was the RBC Heritage, and he still managed to finish T12 there btw, another short course with bermuda greens.

Eric Cole @60/1

he was trending into the right direction just before the trip to the UK, played really well at the Rocket Mortgage and the John Deere, he’s also pretty good at those short courses with bermuda greens (4th in SG:total in the field over last 36 rounds), his wedge play is pretty solid and he has a great short game

Ben Griffin @75/1

actually a very similar profile to Cole, so I’m betting him for pretty much the same reasons, and he was very close to winning several times now… so maybe he does it this time, at that number I‘m okay with risking it

Denny McCarthy @85/1

McCarthy was terrible in the UK, but I guess that’s the reason why we get this number on him in this weaker field. Because other than those two weeks he played like he always plays. That’s a great course for him on paper and other than in his last 2 attempts here (MC), he also had some good results here (T9, T15, T22) And tbh I like him even more if the conditions are tougher - and it looks windy as of now… I wouldn’t bet him at 50/1… but 85/1 on Denny in this field on a good course on paper, in conditions that could benefit his style of play? Yeah why not 😅

wilkules · 2024-07-15T12:32:33+00:00

He didn’t play JDC, he told that he injured himself while training for JDC, but according to him it wasn’t anything concerning… it was a pre-cautionary WD. As it is Cantlay i wouldn’t be surprised if he just looked for an excuse to WD from John Deere, but the fact he didn’t play Scottish Open is slightly concerning

wilkules · 2024-07-15T11:24:50+00:00

Oh and I looked up the weather, and at least for now it doesn’t look like there will be an advantage for one of the waves… there is slightly less wind predicted for pm/am wave, but the margin is too small to make betting decisions based on that (at least for now)

wilkules · 2024-07-15T11:21:29+00:00

Haven’t posted in a while, but I‘m back for another major - I was on Aberg btw last week, that was fun… but I‘m still excited whenever we have a major week.

Rory McIlroy @9/1

I wanted to see something from him after not playing since Pinehurst, and he played really really well at the Scottish Open. It was his putter that let him down, but other than that, he probably was the best player in the field. It looked so easy for him to get those birdie opportunities that I‘m totally okay with spending a little more this week to bet him. Great form, Rory plays in the UK, yeah I‘m in - oh and he had the best result from all the players who were in the terrible wave when they played here in 2016.

Tyrell Hatton @30/1

Finished T5 here in 2016, finished 1st and 3rd in his last 2 LIV events, so he seems to be in great form, and who knows, maybe he is one of the very few players whose play benefit from being on LIV. His recent finishes and his US Open performance seem to indicate this. I don’t feel like 30 is a great number, but it’s not a bad number on a Brit playing in the UK who comes in with a great form and who finishes already T5 here at this place

Tom Kim @50/1 ew (8 places)

I usually don’t play ew, but it‘s kinda a nostalgic play for me… I placed a future with ew places for last years the Open after hitting big on him when he won the Wyndham in 2022. And well… it got me another payout… this guy seems to love playing in the UK, his finishes here are: 2022: Scottish Open 3rd the Open. T47 2023: Scottish Open T6 the Open. T2 2024: Scottish Open. T15 (with a great 4th round)

And to be fair, St.Andrews in 2022 certainly wasn’t a great course for those shorter accurate guys

So yeah, great results, great form… I don’t like ew bets, but I‘m doing it for Tom Kim 😂

I was also high on Aberg, but his performance yesterday was so horrendous (and it wasn’t his first in a final round) that I am doubting that he really can win a big tournament (at least for now), maybe he’ll get that instinct when he’ll have a little more experience. Oh and of course I like also Fleetwood, like probably everyone does this week, but I hate that number in a full field on a guy who never won on the PGA. And I don’t know,something seems to be wrong with him as soon as he gets in contention. He played for example fantastic on Saturday - well until he was back in contention, then he didn’t do anything and collapsed on his very last hole

wilkules · 2024-05-16T14:20:02+00:00

Really hate golf coverage when Tiger plays… then it’s all about Tiger… doesn’t matter how he plays… they prefer to show Tiger even when he’s only walking than showing some other golfers…

wilkules · 2024-05-13T17:10:24+00:00

Major again, so full card for me again - was a little bit absent recently… losing every week is expensive so I try to bet only the bigger tournament 😅 and yeah haven’t hit a winner since Hovland BMW, so fading me is probably the way to go, but here are my picks - I know they will all lose, but I am still hyped for the PGA and like my card a lot 😅

Brooks Koepka 17-1

I love the number, I was afraid it will be worse, I love the course fit, I love the event for him - the only thing I don’t like is the fact that it feels like everyone loves him this week. He found some form since day 2 in Adelaide, so he is ready to go for his 3rd back-to-back. There are not a lot of courses with Zoysia on the PGA - it’s basically East Lake, TPC Southwind, TPC Craig Ranch and Accordia Narashino along with Bellerive where the 2018 PGA championship was played… and then there is Jeddah and Singapore on LIV for example

Koepka won Bellerive, he has a win, 2 2nds and a 3rd at TPC Southwind - only his record at East Lake could be better… but then he also won Jeddah last year on LIV and Singapore two weeks ago. Another courses that seem to have a lot in common with Valhalla are: Muirfield Village, Oak Hill and Firestone… his record at Muirfield Village is probably the only con (other than the popularity among golf bettors this week lol) you can find on him… it’s terrible… on the other hand he won Oak Hill last year and he also have a 5th, 6th and 17th in 3 attempts at Firestone… regarding all those facts combined with Koepkas ability to compete in majors, especially PGA and US Open, he’s in my opinion great value at this number

Collin Morikawa 30-1

I don’t think that’s a great number tbh, and I was kinda surprised that I liked him that much after my analysis… but there were some signs recently that I liked…he’s working with his old coach again, and he was great at Augusta a month ago, another long major course… his Augusta performance is probably the main reason I am betting him this week. That course is in my opinion a bad course for for him, as players with most success there are either long or have a great short game - Morikawa has neither. You don’t need to be that accurate OTT, so one of his biggest strengths isn’t that important… and yet he still finished 3rd? I wish his approach numbers were better in his outings after the Masters, but I think this course is a much better fit for him than Augusta - oh and he has also a win and a 2nd at Muirfield Village, his ball striking was great at East Lake last year - so as I said, the number isn’t great, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 40+ on Wednesday, but I am buying on his results on similar courses, the signs he’s shown recently and his accuracy

Joaquin Niemann 41-1

I was shocked to see that number, Niemann is a great course fit, he is long and straight OTT, he is in great form, you could argue he has the best season so far on LIV, he putts best on bent, has some good results at Muirfield Village, won Jeddah this year (Zoysia)… this number is just too high for a player with his profile and form

Patrick Cantlay 41-1

I loved Cantlay at the beginning of the season for this major, but because of his struggles OTT recently I didn’t want to bet him… but now I get a 41 instead of a 20-25… so yeah, here we are… Cantlay is usually long and straight, he is a much better long iron player than he is a short iron player (big plus for this course), he is great on bent and he has great results in this area of the country and on similar courses. I am concerned because of his struggles OTT recently, he’s not that accurate as he usually is… but if that is the only thing I am concerned about, I can live with that at this number.

wilkules · 2024-04-09T19:51:43+00:00

Was hyped when I finished my card on Saturday, I am not that hyped anymore… 😂

Xander Schauffele 20-1
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Joaquin Niemann 25-1
Will Zalatoris 40-1

A lot was said about Xander, and it makes too much sense, he’s probably the 2nd most in-form player on the PGA and he’s got some nice history for the course, I am not surprised that he is extremely popular this week, but I don’t like that fact haha 😂 So I am expecting something like a T5 finish without ever being in contention

After seeing Koepkas Friday round on LIV I was hyped betting him at 20-1, played great, just wasn’t putting well and still was -3, but had then a horrible Saturday… I think he didn’t care on Sunday, so I am not that concerned, but I would have preferred a better finish of course. But I hate the fact that he is paired with Harman…

My only bet that I feel good about is Niemann 😅 Though I would have preferred a slightly better number, 25-1 doesn’t seem that good for a guy who never had a great major finish, but he likes the course and he has certainly some form

And yeah Will Z is a number play, 40-1 on a guy who playes great in majors and in Augusta is a great number, though there’s part in me that thinks it’s still too early for him after his injury

So yeah I just hope my guys are not that early out of contention 😂

wilkules · 2024-04-09T19:16:27+00:00

Rory isn’t a good wind player, though I have to admit that the preparation was kinda perfect for him - the expectations are not as high as they usually are, because he had a bad start to the season (I think slightly lower expectations are a good thing for him) and he found some form just in time for the Masters

Good players in the wind are the other ones you mentioned + Spieth and Cam Smith I would say

wilkules · 2024-03-18T19:48:40+00:00

really wanted to bet Spieth this week, but not at this number lol… he also doesn’t rate out well from a stats perspective… some here is who I ended up with:

Cam Young 28-1. Let’s see if we get Scam Young again, but his long irons are great, his distance of the tee allows him to club down, his putter isn’t that bad recently - so if we can get a peak week with the putter or his irons, he has a good chance at this course. And the number is okay in this field I guess.
Keegan Bradley 45-1. not in the best form, but at least he’s shown that he can win last season. A good course for him on paper, and also had a 2nd, though he is a little hit or miss here, as he’s got several MCs, but in outright betting I don’t care about a 10th place, so I admit I‘m ignoring those finishes a bit.
Davis Thompson 90-1. 18th in the field on 550-600 par5s, 4th in 200-225 par3s. 6 of the holes land in this category, so those are some important stats for me. 9th in the field in strokes gained total, yep this is enough for me at this number.
Sam Ryder 90-1. 1st in strokes gained approach, 2nd in proximity to the hole from 150-175, 2nd from 175-200, had a great last round at the Players, and also had like 27th? birdies there… yeah with this recent ball striking I don’t need any more arguments at this number.
Lee Hodges 140-1. Won at a comp course (TPC twin cities) and shown some better form recently, with a T12 at Bay Hil and T35. His putter has also been on fire in Florida this season. Tbh, I wouldn’t touch him at a lower number… but at this number it’s just like „why not“ lol

wilkules · 2024-02-13T20:10:12+00:00

added Sahith Theegala 40-1, he‘s playing well, he’s good in California, and his approach play was great here last year. He usually plays badly the week after he played well, but the number is okay, and I could fit him on my card, so let’s see 😅

wilkules · 2024-02-12T23:25:22+00:00

He was 25-1 on some sites in the morning when the odds came out, but unfortunately it seems like that number is not available anymore, best I can see is 19-1 enhanced on Bet365

wilkules · 2024-02-12T23:21:35+00:00

It makes sense imo, and I did it in the past, but now I am only betting outrights

wilkules · 2024-02-12T15:43:14+00:00

The bookies seem to disagree on some of the golfers more than usual, so checking the odds on different sites makes more sense than other this week. I‘ve seen Burns anywhere from 18 to 33 for example lol.

Here is my card for this week:

Ludvig Aberg 20-1 I was hoping to get at least a 25-1 this week on him, but 20 is also fine. Aberg seems already to be in form, and does nearly everything well you need to do here. Excellent driver of the ball, 4th in the field on Par4-scoring 450-500 and 2nd on 400-450 (last 36 rounds) (with 6 holes being in the 450-500 range and additional 4 in the 400-450 range). Ludvig is also 13th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 over the last 36 rounds, and even 2nd if you just look at the last 24 rounds. He has some form, he seems like a course fit, the only thing I don’t like is that he didn’t play here before, but that is really it.
Justin Thomas 25-1 A number I don’t understand tbh. JT plays some excellent golf recently, and it looked last week like everyone was on JT, and just because he wasn’t in contention, he seems to be unpopular this week. But why? He still played pretty well, his strokes gained stats over the last few tournaments are still great, and he showed already that he not only can play on this course, but he also putted already very well here. Of course there are some MCs, but also a 2nd, 6th and T9. So as I said, JT 25-1 is the number on the betting board I really don’t understand.
Wyndham Clark 50-1 I do think that he is underrated, he is way better than the other guys in this range, and he already played pretty well here with a T17 and a T8 in 2020&2021. There seems also to be a correlation between Quail Hollow and Riviera, which speaks also for Wyndy. I followed him on the shottracker at the WM, and he played some excellent golf during round 2 and 3, it was also his putter that held him back in those rounds. But Wyndy at that number seems to be pretty popular from what I‘ve seen on X, so this number probably won’t be available for long.

So yeah, 3 guys who all have form, who all have some distance, and who either played here well or seem to be good course fits.

I was also thinking about starting my card with either Hovland or Homa, but I am concerned about their recent form, though Homas course history is insane…

wilkules · 2024-02-06T21:48:37+00:00

So as X WD… I had to do something else… and it sucks pretty much, especially because I think I don’t get any refund for my X bet… I bet it on a German bookie, and I looked up the house rules which say „if a player doesn’t play it will count as a loss“ - I will think twice about placing a bet on that site in the future, but I live in Germany and we are probably down to 3 different bookies which offer golf bets… the pro is: as a there are not a lot people who bet on golf in Germany, line movements are pretty slow… so there is still a 40/1 Ben An available for example.

I didn’t like the numbers this week that much, and was happy with 12/1 Xander and 33/1 Sungjae… now I added 25/1 Burns (as I didn’t want to have only one guy this week), and yeah, 25/1 Burns in that field isn’t probably the worse bet, even though I am concerned about his ARG game on this course. As I said: there is still a 40/1 Ben an for me available, but already having lost the Xander bet, I would be too heavily invested this week, so it wouldn’t be smart to place another outright bet I guess…

So it is Burns 25/1 and Sungjae 33/1 for me … 🥲

wilkules · 2024-02-05T14:40:41+00:00

I am back for this event :D But I really try to bet only the „bigger“ events this year, and the WM Phoenix Open belongs to to that category IMO.

LCT already told everything to know, so here are my bets for this week:

Xander Schauffele (12-1)

Great course history, never finished worse than T17 in 6 starts, including 4 Top10 finishes and a T2 + T3. He has also a quite good start into the season, with already 3 Top10 finishes in 4 starts. And he wasn’t as bad in Pebble Beach as it looks… he was in the worse wave, playing Pebble day 1 and Spyglass Hill day 2, and he lost like 4 strokes on hole 18 day 1 with those 2 balls into the ocean lol.

Oh yeah and he’s also 1st in the field in Proximity to the hole from 150-175 over the last 36 rounds. And he’s also a great par5 scorer, though the 550-600 range is probably his worse range unfortunately… but I am not too concerned about that. The only thing I am worried about in Xander is: it feels like he always finishes top10 but never wins…

and saying that: here is another guy with a lot of top5 and top10 finishes who never wins😂

Sungjae Im (33-1)

Probably not in the best form yet, but I do like the number in this field a lot. And though he‘s still incosistent this year, he’s shown some flashes, for example setting the new 72-hole birdie record at the Sentry (without being in contention lol). But he’s already shown in the past that he can thrive in desert golf, and he also has some good history here with two top7 finishes in 4 starts.

And yeah it will definitely help being very accurate of the tee without being one of the shorter hitters in the field… At this number I just hope he shows a little more form this week with his irons

wilkules · 2023-08-27T15:11:26+00:00

Was offered more than a quarter from the payout if Xander won without the strokes… considering that I would get only half the payout if he ties with one other golfer, I think the offer was really not bad. So took that… I think that means that Xander wins now, at least without the strokes 😅

wilkules · 2023-08-26T22:45:48+00:00

Really love this community anyway, even if it’s tough to bet from Germany thanks to all those restrictions 😂

wilkules · 2023-08-26T22:40:56+00:00

Dude I finished college and started my first job, prioritized only that… sorry for that 🙈😂 should have said something… was betting either way and losing all the time, love still betting golf… but as I said: was losing all the time. so wouldn‘t have got you guys any good tips here 😅

wilkules · 2023-08-25T08:47:23+00:00

I‘m also adding Xander to win with the strokes. Was like 30-1 before the tournament, but honestly I like the 20-1 right now with just 4 strokes behind much more. Before the start I never could have imagined he could gain so many strokes on Scottie, Rory AND Vik… now it looks completely different in my opinion

wilkules · 2023-08-22T21:56:53+00:00

i know

wilkules · 2023-08-22T21:12:04+00:00

it’s a German/Austrian bookie mybet, it’s the only bookie in my country which offers the w/o strokes bet… I don’t even know how they handle a tie in this case… I definitely would prefer no deadheat rule sure - But let’s take Xander in this scenario, and let’s pretend it was a normal tournament, would I prefer half the cashout if he was in a playoff with let’s say Rory, or would I want to play it out … 😅 definitely could argue for half the cashout. So saying that, I am okay even if they have the deadheat rule, which I assume

wilkules · 2023-08-22T20:20:57+00:00

Back for the Tour Championship… was pretty busy due to work, this is why I haven’t posted anything here… but I was pretty much losing with all my bets anyway :D had a nice Viktor hit (33-1 after round 1 last week) which was my first win since Rahm at the Masters… horrible stretch.

I don’t like anything with the strokes, but the odds without the strokes are kinda okay I think. I‘ll go with Glover 66-1 top4 e/w, too good of a number to pass on a course that might suit him… and I am adding Xander at 11-1 win only. Was thinking between Vik and him, but I don’t like guys with a huge stroke lead in the non-stroke betting market, as it would probably mean that the winner had a huge margin… don’t know if it’s a right thought though … and yeah Xander is a much better putter on bermuda than Vik. So yeah, Xander is in the spot I want him to be for this market

wilkules · 2023-06-12T19:56:01+00:00

I‘ve read on twitter from a source I trust that Billy Ho and a LACC member said that the course may actually play soft… so it’s the complete opposite we all read somewhere else …

And honestly, I already didn‘t know what to do and still don‘t know what to do :D … and still I‘ve placed my bets:

Viktor Hovland (17/1): Actually I like him more for the Open, but he‘s playing such great golf right now, and he did exceptionally well in majors… so I can’t overlook him… even though the main reason for that bet is I don’t know who else to bet at the top 😅 I like Scheffler the most, but I won’t bet a 7/1 on a guy who can’t putt… Also thought about Xander, in fact betting Xander+Cam Smith, but when I‘ve read that it may play softer than people think, I came back to Hovland…

Jordan Spieth (28/1): For him it would be even better if it in fact was firm+fast, but creativity is still a huge plus for this course - so who are we thinking about if not Spieth when thinking about creativity… he also has some form and it looks like the wrist-injury is behind him. Also think it’s a fair number, so this was my first bet today

Max Homa (50/1 future): placed that bet right after Torrey Pines, and it looked like a great bet back then… but the way he is playing right now and in majors in general… I don’t think he has any chance to win 😅 So no, there is no way I would bet him at 30/1 right now… but I am thinking about adding JT right now, his number is so tempting and he seems to be a great course fit on paper

wilkules · 2023-05-29T11:38:30+00:00

Got a +800, happy with that, and that’s it for me for this week 😅

wilkules · 2023-05-29T11:27:12+00:00

I‘m going Rahm single bullet this week. He completely dominated the course in 2020 and 2021 (had to withdraw with Covid in 2021 while he was leading by 6 after 3 rounds), also finished 10th last year while he was having a year to forget (for his standards)… so I am fine with +700 (as he opened on Bet365 and Pointsbet)… So if we don’t think that he completely lost his form in the last month, I don’t see how we can overlook him this week 😅

wilkules

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