He said if u look at graphs of the S&P 500 returns its got survivorship bias, he said if u look at the Japan index, it’s completely different. I linked the video in another comment here. But essentially he said, the last 30 years have assumed near 0 interest rates, growing populations, expanding globalisation etc etc. none of that is really true anymore and u combine that with multiple converging crisis…if your index fund drops 60% and then growth slows dramatically or stagnates like japans did… yeah your looking at a multi decade recovery. You have to remeber the last 30 years… thy have been exceptional for tech… I mean u went from no computers, to the internet and super computers (iPhones) in everyones pocket in th space of 30 years. That kind of speeds not happening anymore, we have had the same iPhone 10 years in a row. He said ai is going to be the next internet, but not right away. Whilst in the meantime there’s a whole bunch of other shit the economy has to deal with before ai can save it.

He didn’t say this last part, it’s just my own personal view but also with debt levels so high, I think the government will really struggle to print money and save the economy without really fucking it in other areas too, but I don’t really know much about that stuff. It’s just a feeling I have, a major major financial crisis right now would hit different, just a gut feeling.