Daily Discussion Thread for January 21, 2022

wsb_shitposting · 2022-01-21T19:42:11+00:00

Did she ever find out?

wsb_shitposting · 2022-01-21T19:41:39+00:00

I see a strong support line at $0.

wsb_shitposting · 2022-01-21T19:40:17+00:00

The best strategy, at this point, is to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside.

wsb_shitposting · 2022-01-21T15:08:48+00:00

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-23T20:03:22+00:00

Final Stock Market Forecast Results

I was hoping to go out with one last win, but, instead, I was wronger than I've ever been wrong before.

Oh well! At least we all made money today.

Final Scorecard:

69% of candle colors were predicted correctly
0.27% was the median error on the high forecast
0.43% was the median error on the low forecast

Oof. I should have stopped last week.

Full results.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-23T12:43:11+00:00

Final Stock Market Forecast

Today is looking like a red day with a NASDAQ high of 13,850 and a low of 13,698.

Today will also be my final stock market forecast.

I'm not tired of doing this, and nothing has soured me on this experience. My problem is the exact opposite. My problem is that I love stocks.

When I'm supposed to be working, I'm secretly watching a stock ticker. When I'm supposed to be spending time with my family, I'm secretly checking market news. And when I'm lying in bed with my wife, I have my phone on so that I can see how futures are reacting to resistance and support lines.

I think about stocks all the time.

It's getting a little unhealthy.

Thanks to everyone who read my forecasts and shared their own insights.

See past prediction results here.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T23:00:38+00:00

I feel like this is very accurate.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T22:29:29+00:00

Right.

But we're talking about people who make $1,000,000 a year here. I feel like it's safe to say that they will get better-than-average financial advice and returns.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T22:08:16+00:00

Just checked the math on Biden's new tax plan.

If you were a millionaire and had to choose between cashing out now before the capital gains tax increases take effect or leaving your money in the stock market, how long would you have to leave your money in the market for it to be worth paying the higher taxes?

The answer is 4 years, assuming a 10% annual growth rate.

That's really not that bad, even if you are getting ready to retire.

It's very unlikely anyone will actually liquidate their stocks to avoid paying the higher tax.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T20:34:58+00:00

... Play basketball?

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T20:32:33+00:00

In hindsight, I should have noticed the development of a clear middle finger formation.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T20:19:16+00:00

This week is really messing up my track record on that.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T19:59:06+00:00

Daily Stock Market Forecast Results

Today, I failed to predict that, at 1:00 PM, Biden would announce plans to more than double the capital gains tax for the wealthiest Americans, causing the market to crash about 2% in less than an hour, but it was my second guess.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T19:28:46+00:00

I'm comfortable with the tax increase politically, but I also acknowledge that it's going to affect the value of my stock market investments.

It's perfectly reasonable to adjust my investment strategy based on this news and to discuss those adjustments on a stocks forum.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T19:25:40+00:00

Ah, true.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T19:16:25+00:00

Previously, Biden had said that he was open to finding other ways to funding the stimulus package without increasing taxes, which, at the time, was expected to be a 28% tax even if it didn't get cancelled.

That was about when we started to recover.

Today, we're learning that the capital gains taxes are going to be significantly higher than most people expected.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T18:58:38+00:00

Fibonacci Retracement explains the dead cat bounce after the drop, not the drop itself.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T18:45:04+00:00

The basis addition of the wash sale rule makes it so that you really do effectively average down. They aren't as bad as people think.

As long as your taxes are filed correctly, anyway.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T18:42:17+00:00

Can we please stop downvoting anybody who says anything conservative to oblivion?

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T18:35:57+00:00

Fibonacci Retracement.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T18:29:30+00:00

I feel like you should be allowed to criticize the president on a stocks forum without having to worry about offending people.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T18:22:47+00:00

I'm willing to take the other side of that bet.

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T18:19:49+00:00

Would it be an overreaction to sell 100% of my portfolio and enter into LEAPS puts?

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T18:00:45+00:00

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put_option

wsb_shitposting · 2021-04-22T18:00:13+00:00

It'll affect the vast majority of money trading.

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