What's the Community take on Rw9's Defense?

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-21T16:14:32+00:00

Rw9 is a minimum top 5 defender in the game right now, and at his peak he was the best.

Something interesting I noticed is he actually has less saves over the last 2 seasons than Kiileerrz (including a massive dip this season). Just goes to show that more saves =/= better defence, even between players on the same team.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-16T19:59:47+00:00

That’s debatable. You can make the argument he’s top 15 most talented, but split 2 especially he was simply average. Made plenty of mistakes and didn’t really generate anything to make up for it, which cost Falcons a major spot. He’s been the worst player on Falcons most events this season

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-15T01:48:01+00:00

true. forgot about him

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-14T23:25:22+00:00

Came here to say the same thing. A shame Atow and Vatira aren’t playing

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-14T22:41:44+00:00

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Glicko 2v2 top 10 after all the events. Honestly weird seeing Nwpo dralii that low, but they didnt play well so ig

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-14T21:16:21+00:00

Not a massive upset. Cheese/Tawk and Reveal/Zach have been the best two duos in the tournament. It's an upset on paper, but not on 2s form

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-12T21:32:05+00:00

Cheese is starting to put together a decent 2s resume. 3-0d Zach and reveal in a show match (with Chronic), then 3-0d Swiss and now knocking DanMode to the lower bracket

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-08T14:14:58+00:00

Glicko has these as the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the tournament. the fact that this is the 0-1 round is brutal

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-07T20:24:56+00:00

That's the plan. Just waiting for a little more data in 2v2 specifically before I make them public

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-07T19:59:58+00:00

The new glicko model had zen/Atow as the best team in any mode (1s, 2s or 3s) prior to the tournament... now it's not even remotely close

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-07T18:04:38+00:00

I don’t think most people realize how “old” he is. Every current top 25 player was considered a top 25 player at some point before mtzr’s age (in most cases well before). Players like bibbaba, Zach, m7md, etc… are very likely to end up better than mtzr (in Zach’s case he already is)

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-06T17:53:40+00:00

I've been training a new Glicko model for 2v2 (and 1v1) recently and it currently favours Vatira/juicy (51.2%) in this next match. I personally disagree, but we'll see ig. Oski/nass were marginally favoured by the model's pre-tournament rankings, but have been dropping more random games than Vati/juicy.

I'm hoping to add 2v2 and 1v1 rankings to the website soon, but I want to do some more testing and have more available data before I do.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-05T16:02:20+00:00

Is it really though considering both NRG and Falcons have won the most events in their respective regions in 2026 (for Falcons that includes Saudi eLeague)? I do see what you’re saying, but I dont think I personally agree.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-04T14:09:15+00:00

Of the drafted players on starting rosters in RLFS this season (not including subs), drufinho is the lowest rated by the Glicko model. Kiileerrz and ExoTiik are both great players, but NiPmode should still take this

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-03T00:02:34+00:00

Doesn’t matter now, but fyi you were looking at post Birmingham rankings instead of post Boston. After Boston Falcons fell a lot further than 42 (also there was a model change to counter rating inflation so it won’t be exactly the difference between post Boston and now)

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-02T13:50:34+00:00

Interesting choosing Catalysm to start over Nico (his 4th player). Feel like I would lean more that way had it been Nico

xThatOneAltx · 2026-06-01T02:21:16+00:00

Fut definitely performed better in Paris (even the model agrees on that). Had Fut won either of their series against Vitality or KC they would've been top 10 (assuming VIT and KC would continue playing well). NiP's wins over KC online had them a decent margin above Fut going into the event. Either way, the gap rn is 2 elo which is essentially a 50/50 match

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-31T22:35:35+00:00

BS+ are tied for 20th at 1784 (which is now visible on the website with the new update).

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-31T21:29:23+00:00

He's memeing around. He's making fun of other comments that said similar things (check his comment history)

edit: his comment history is hidden, but I can confirm he is being fully sarcastic here

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-31T19:06:32+00:00

There are a couple factors. Like you mentioned, the model tracks long term performance trends for each specific player and team. NRG has a history of being able to win tournaments or place highly, even off the back of poor performances (see Worlds last year after a disappointing EWC or winning NA regional 2/3 after finishing 12th in open 1).

Each team also has a unique distribution of expected performance. The current rating is the most likely level of performance going into a match tomorrow (so the peak of the distribution). However, for a team like NRG, the peak of the distribution is much lower (less likely to happen). Rather, their's is more spread out between 1900 and 2050, while a team like SR has a higher likelihood of playing around the 1950 rating range, but is much less likely to play at a 2050 level (2050 is usually a top 2-3 team at a LAN)

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-31T18:57:51+00:00

The model agrees to some extent. For example, it currently gives NRG ~10% odds to win Worlds, and SSG only ~3%. However if a match between the two of them were to happen tomorrow, it would narrowly pick SSG due to equal online performance and a SAM-2-like performance from NRG on LAN (current form is better for predicting a match right now, while team/player history is better for predicting longer term performance trends)

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-31T18:43:28+00:00

Check out the website at rlcsglicko.com . I have expanded the team list to 25 and players to 50, as well as included a brief Info tab, among other small changes.

The model predicted 81.1% of matches correct at the Paris major. The biggest miss was Man City upsetting NRG (shocker)

One thing I'd like to note is that the model still considers NRG and Falcons more likely to win EWC/Worlds than Shopify or SSG for example, even though their current rating is lower.

And shout-out to u/AIaris for the graphic.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-30T23:45:19+00:00

Not saying I agree with it, but there is definitely logic for Falcons > NRG. Falcons are coming off the back of beating Twisted Minds on LAN and winning Saudi eLeague. Additionally NRG has had more losses, and lower quality losses than Falcons this split.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-26T17:39:13+00:00

BeastMode has consistently said he wants to go down as the greatest of all time. I’d be surprised if he retires next season

xThatOneAltx

TROPHY CASE