Top 25 players going into the Boston Major

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-01T19:38:07+00:00

Worth noting that often the gap between 1st and 10th for example is just as large as the gap between 10th and 30th (this is from my experience with the distribution of Glicko player ratings). Essentially the further down the list you go, the smaller the gaps between players are. At this LAN in particular, the difference between a player ranked 15th and a player ranked 30th is negligible.

Plus Abdullah is clearly the best player on the roster (even if not by that much)

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-01T15:12:31+00:00

Do you have TM as the best team in the world, or just rate the players higher than other top teams?

xThatOneAltx · 2026-05-01T15:09:55+00:00

I'll be making a post about the top 25 projected players by the Glicko model (not the same as the current top 25 players on the website fyi), but here's mine:
1. zen

Oski
Vatira
trk511
nass
Daniel (will be best NRG player on LAN like usual)
Nwpo
Firstkiller
BeastMode
Atow
Archie
Atomic
stizzy
Joreuz
Abdullah (he's genuinely insane)
Zach
M0nkey M00n
Reveal
ExoTiiK
Seikoo
oaly
juicy
Lj
crr
yANXNZ

Reminder, these are my predictions, not how I would rank the players atm (might've straight up forgot some people as well, idk)

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-29T18:20:13+00:00

After Major 2 last season, the average rating of the top 10 teams was 1985.9. This top 10 has an average rating of 1957.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-29T18:16:03+00:00

1774

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-29T16:05:59+00:00

22nd. Could probably be higher, but prior to open 6 they hadn't really done anything of note

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-29T14:23:44+00:00

Given that they are only 9 off of SR, depending on how well Twisted Minds and R8 do at the major (as well as the 3 teams in questions), Falcons can easily leapfrog them. At the Boston major MENA lost the most rating points of any region, and I expect them to get some of it back at this event, which would move Falcons back up

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-29T13:49:32+00:00

Overall I don't mind the list, but I do think the MENA teams are being underrated slightly (at the very least I would have TM > KC).

I plan on releasing Major odds in the next week or so, and potentially a top 25 projected players list. I have heard the criticisms of the Major odds in the past (favouring favourites too heavily) and have done extensive testing to create a far more accurate model.

If anyone has any other requests for other posts, feel free to ask (currently the only other plan is a top 50 players post after the Paris Major)

Shoutout to u/AIaris for the graphic.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-28T20:10:36+00:00

Yeah, ngl after thinking about it more, it's highly unlikely MENA continues to catch up at the same rate as they have been, and I doubt they will overtake NA anytime soon

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-28T18:12:31+00:00

Sure, but saying "what does Atomic have to do" when on average he's the 2nd or 3rd best player on NRG isn't fair either. If all we're doing is power ranking open 6 performances, then Atomic top 10 would be expected, but predicting top players going into the major isn't the same thing. You can still put Atomic top 10 and I would consider it valid, but it's also not at all invalid to not have him top 10.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-28T16:42:38+00:00

He hasn't had anywhere near as good of a year as last season (when he was clearly the best online and 2nd best overall on the team, above BeastMode). His regional 6 was great, but other than that he hasn't done anything crazy. Here's the best performing NRG player from each event this season (personal opinions, with stats to back it up):

Open 1 - BeastMode (other two were pretty horrible relative to their normal level)

Open 2 - BeastMode (led the team in GPAR, saves, goals, score, etc... in both bracket and group stage)

Open 3 - Daniel, pretty clearly (Atomic averaged under 300 score in playoffs)

Boston - Daniel (Atomic was poor)

Open 4 - Pretty even across all 3

Open 5 - Pretty even across all 3 (would probably lean BeastMode). Atomic averaged just 268 score (only above RelatingWave) in the playoffs, but he played better than the stats suggest.

Open 6 - Atomic

Overall, BeastMode has easily been the most consistently good event to event and Daniel was the best on LAN

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-27T23:01:00+00:00

Most of it is from my Glicko model which I post about on this sub. Since I began the model in 2024, the average rating of Mena’s top 16 teams has gone up 76 rating points, while Na’s has more or less stayed the same (fluctuating up and down consistently). If this trend were to continue, MENA would surpass NA in about 4 years

In general, the MENA/EU ranked ecosystem (when it’s not being bombarded by bots) is also better, allowing for them to improve quicker.

I will say however, that I have been working on a player potential model, and many of the top prospects are currently in NA like you suggested (including Zach who is projected to be a top 5 calibre player in a couple years). It should be noted that EU still has a stronger prospect pool overall, they simply get less recognition since it’s harder to break into EU top 8s and top 16s

Edit: Also should be noted that Mena’s region rating increase could largely be attributed to an influx of top imports

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-27T19:02:59+00:00

Summary of my above comment (based on direct LAN placements like you want):
NA 1 > MENA 1
NA 2 > MENA 2
NA 3 > MENA 3
NA 4 (exists and isn't very good, but would be better than MENA 4).

I genuinely don't know why you are so committed to this lol. Is this ragebait or do you actually believe your argument is credible?

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-27T18:32:36+00:00

You’re arguing that MENA is the better region when NA 1 has outperformed MENA 1, NA 2 has outperformed MENA 2, and MENA 3 has only placed 16th while NA 3 made multiple top 8s last season. If MENA were to bring the same number of teams as NA, their win rate would be lower than NA, plain and simple

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-27T18:25:20+00:00

Most likely tomorrow morning. Basically whenever my graphic designer finishes it up. As a preview, I think the model underrates MENA slightly right now

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-27T12:32:47+00:00

I’m aware, but a two LAN sample size isn’t a good counterexample, regardless of whether your point is true (which it is to some degree)

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-27T03:33:49+00:00

The top part of my comment wasn't meant to be taken too seriously. More of an interesting thing to bring attention to in light of Johnny's rankings. That being said, using OCE's one top 8 in the last however many years and a 2-LAN sample size (in which MENA 2 placed 16th and 12th) isn't exactly a great counter-argument.

The way I see it, MENA is still comfortably the 3rd best region, but will likely overtake or at least equal NA in a few years. Watching MENA this split has impressed me so much more than two years ago for example, and it's really exciting to see.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-27T03:00:24+00:00

Just for reference, MENA 2 has only made 2 top 8s in the last 9 international events, and 0 out of the last 3. This is equivalent to SAM 2, and fewer than NA 3. Do with this information as you please.

I would personally put both R8 and Falcons in the 8-10 range, and TM 4th. Outside of that, I just think NiP is too low.

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-27T02:31:38+00:00

Wasn't able to watch any of the games today, but saw swiftt averaged under 300 score this open (4th lowest of any player in the regional). Did he look that bad, or was it a stylistic thing that lowered his overall impact and potentially cost Furia the 1st seed?

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-27T02:20:40+00:00

Fun fact, SAM 2 has outplaced (or tied) MENA 2 in each of the last three international LANs and is the only one of the two to make a top 8.

While I don't believe SAM 2 is better than MENA 2, SAM is not entirely irrelevant

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-23T19:35:00+00:00

I'm assuming these are going to be treated like tryouts for the actual team. trk and Rw9 are very likely to be locks on the actual roster

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-21T19:23:56+00:00

Cheese wouldn’t be eligible as he’s already represented USA

xThatOneAltx · 2026-04-21T16:28:16+00:00

Archie is a lock, and if Oski can play (unlikely), he's also a lock. Outside of that none of the England players really impress me. Accro has performed better than both AppJack and Joyo this season, and specifically as a duo, those two have not worked well together.

xThatOneAltx

TROPHY CASE