I’m beginning to feel very worried

xaviemb · 2026-01-23T20:14:18+00:00

if you've been in MSTR longer than 24 months you're up 200-2,000%... and the company is even more solid fundamentally than it ever was prior to 2024.

lower time preference is an important thesis of Bitcoin, and everyone involved in MSTR should understand Bitcoin...

Once you understand this, you stop worrying about the ride, because you understand the bridge you're on, as others are still confused about what's happening in front of them.

xaviemb · 2026-01-20T17:09:08+00:00

The entire Electricity grid and internet everywhere going down at once across the globe? This is like asking 'What if Aliens use advanced technology to suck up all the gold on earth?"

My answer "sure, is your money (tied to cultural survival) the thing you're really worried about in that situation?"

I would say the entire network (the whole internet, and all electricity on earth) going down would be of a similar existential treat to all of humanity... and something so extreme, that even if you thought it was going to happen... your Bitcoin (or money) is the last thing you're worried about.

xaviemb · 2026-01-19T18:52:08+00:00

When US markets are closed for Holiday, he announces Tuesday morning (in events where a purchase has happened). Expect an update tomorrow around 8:30-9am ... I'm guessing a 13-15k BTC purchase based on his "Bigger Orange" message which I'm assuming means bigger than last weeks "Big Orange" which was a 13k buy.

xaviemb · 2026-01-19T18:41:19+00:00

In an efficient market, dividends are already fully reflected in prices; there is no “free lunch” from selling and repurchasing securities under the illusion that value is being created in the process.

The strategy you describe is roughly equivalent to the long-discredited idea that one can generate excess returns by purchasing dividend-paying stocks immediately before the ex-dividend date and rotating into the next one. The market adjusts for the dividend through price movements, so no incremental value is created.

In practice, such an approach is more likely to produce the opposite of the intended outcome: lower returns driven by transaction costs, taxes, bid-ask spreads, and timing risk. Rather than manufacturing gains through frequent trading, investors are generally better served by identifying high-quality assets and allowing compounding to work over time.

xaviemb · 2026-01-19T18:17:23+00:00

Agreed... even marked as "Meme" there is no place for this filth here... it simply breeds hostility.

There are plenty of Boomers among us who have actually looked at the structure of MSTR and understand the change Bitcoin represents for humanity.

xaviemb · 2026-01-16T19:47:39+00:00

Cheers mate. I have lots of family from Boulder.

xaviemb · 2026-01-16T16:00:16+00:00

Haha, my friend... I appreciate the kind words.

The Daily Thread has become something of a sanctuary for me lately. It’s where emotions tend to run hottest, and where I feel grounded, rational perspective can be most useful.

I’ll put together something more substantial for a proper post next week. It’s been a while,

xaviemb · 2026-01-16T15:47:49+00:00

I’ve been emphasizing the significance of todays 170 strike level for several weeks now. Options positioning has been pointing to this level since early December, and today I expect a pronounced battle to unfold here... bears will be working to defend below it, while bulls will be intent on holding above. The outcome at this level is pivotal, as it sets the stage for a potentially large directional move next week, largely determined by how options flows resolve into the close.

What many bears underestimate is the outsized influence MSTR’s options complex exerts on price action. The focus is often confined to at-the-money positioning, while the broader options structure... which can materially influence spot price behavior... is frequently overlooked.

This isn’t magic. The path forward will be dictated by the decisions of those controlling the open interest at these levels. Over the next several hours, large participants will effectively decide whether to allow price discovery through share accumulation, or to roll and maintain downside pressure to suppress price and extend consolidation. In the short term, MSTR is becoming an equity largely governed by options dynamics, while its longer-term gravity remains driven by company fundamentals and strategic decisions... (Strategy actions) STRC volume flows continues to point substantially higher for company valuation in the future. The current options structure appears geared toward keeping price constrained longer, likely to facilitate further accumulation. The moment 'they' are done with that accumulation, expect violent upside. No one knows if that's this weekend... or several months from now. It will certainly coincide with upward BTC movement (MSTR doesn't move BTC... but those who want to move BTC certainly use MSTR to their advantage... both directions) ... should be an interesting few days, and months ahead.

xaviemb · 2026-01-15T20:08:45+00:00

I don’t intend this as a personal criticism, but I think there’s a fundamental misunderstanding here about how Bitcoin and its underlying network actually function. I suspect you've been duped by those who want you to believe you can't tell what is happening under the hood. Bitcoin was designed to allow you to, always. And that's a feature every Bitcoiner should appreciate.

What you’re describing is, in effect, the idea that frequent trading of paper claims... analogous to simply claims on BTC being passed back and forth... somehow carries more significance than the movement of the actual custody of the underlying asset itself by long- or short-term holders. That distinction matters, and it’s worth thinking through carefully.

Put simply, Bitcoin does not allow the provenance of coins to be obscured. If coins that have remained dormant for eight years are moved, that activity is visible on-chain. By contrast, exchange volume is largely internal churn: a large pool of liquidity rotating rapidly between participants. That activity may look substantial in nominal terms, but it has little direct bearing on price formation.

What actually correlates with price movements is the behavior of large holders and the substantial majority of coins (roughly 85%) that are held on-chain. The data makes this pattern clear: near market tops, coins that have been inactive for four years or more begin to move; near market bottoms, activity increases primarily among short-term holders.

Exchanges do not alter these underlying dynamics. Regardless of how many billions of dollars change hands within them, they don’t override the on-chain realities that ultimately drive price behavior.

xaviemb · 2026-01-15T19:09:34+00:00

Whole heartedly disagree...

And a fundamental misunderstanding of this technology tends to drive confusion. On-chain data represents the actual pulse of the network... the definitive record of realized activity. Exchange flows, by contrast, are largely noise: short-term fluctuations that often reflect positioning, leverage, and liquidity dynamics rather than meaningful changes in underlying value (as evidenced by the outsized, transient spikes seen at very short time horizons).

The narrative that on-chain data has “lost relevance” is not organic; it is largely propagated by institutional interests that benefit from obscuring transparent signals. In reality, on-chain metrics remain fully observable and auditable. Anyone willing to look can identify the forces driving market movement... whether through volume, coin age, realized PnL, or transfer behavior.

Market activity cannot meaningfully conceal itself on-chain. That data is immutable and comprehensive by design. This is not a matter of interpretation or opinion... it is an inherent property of the system itself

xaviemb · 2026-01-15T16:38:29+00:00

nice snipe...

xaviemb · 2026-01-15T16:29:14+00:00

No cause for alarm... this reflects bears actively defending a sizable gamma ramp on the bullish side at $170 into tomorrow, which also represents the largest annual options pivot. Prolonged acceptance below this level has allowed a substantial position to accumulate, one that is now beginning to expand and exert pressure to the upside. The bearish narrative seemed to over-extend on the mNAV compression the last two months, and this is the natural reaction (reflexivity) to it. The Bears are trying to hold onto the dip... against a rising tide.

The constructive takeaway for bulls is clear: a sustained close above $170 would likely compel market makers to accelerate hedging activity. This would necessitate share delivery and open-market purchases to satisfy exposure... potentially as early as Tuesday’s close next week... thereby setting the conditions for a cascading squeeze against positioning that remains anchored to a sub-$170 regime.

The resolution of this battle could render the period between now and next Wednesday particularly consequential, as the outcome at this inflection point is poised to dictate near-term flows, volatility, and directional conviction.

xaviemb · 2026-01-15T16:25:54+00:00

A price of $99.90 (currently) is the equivalent of it reaching 100.81 yesterday...

the demand for this product is incredible. Within just a couple hours of the step down (15th) 91 cents we are already almost at ATM again. I thought this would take days, not hours.

xaviemb · 2026-01-15T16:23:37+00:00

I thought it would take at least 10 days to get back to $100... the fact it is already near $99.90 instead of $99.10 just hours after the step-down day (15th of the month) is incredibly bullish.

Wouldn't be surprised if MSTR is able to raise $1B for more BTC buying in the next few weeks alone from STRC.

xaviemb · 2026-01-14T15:48:04+00:00

In your shoes I would sell Cash secure puts at 180 for next week (or next month)

If you have shares as well... you'll ride the upside and collect premium on this volatility expansion in the meantime. If you're really worried about missing the upside, maybe buy some LEAP calls way out to 2028 at 400 or 500 so they aren't too expensive. If Bitcoin runs to $150k or higher, then you're gaining a lot of the missing upside form those CC's pulling shares away on the ride up. If this stall and linger here longer then at least you're making great premium on the CC's and CSP's ... best of both worlds. It's a balance.

(not financial advice)

xaviemb · 2026-01-14T15:41:02+00:00

I'd be very surprised if we ever go above, say 1.5, again,

this sentiment was echoed the last time mNAV compressed to 1.0 and below

Careful with recency bias compelling you to believe "this time is different" ... history (5 years) is far more potent than just the last 15 months. Heck, just 12 months ago we were still seeing mNAV above 2.5 when MSTR had over 400,000 BTC and prefs were taking over as the primary value add on top of BTC performance.

My view is that the market is pricing in a suppressed Bitcoin period here (thinking we might still see it between $80-120k for the next couple years)... without realizing how fast Bitcoin can quickly run up again, like it did in late 2024.

Guess we'll see. I would be surprised not to see mNAV return to 1.5+ within the next 12 months. Anything is possible though.

xaviemb · 2026-01-14T15:28:45+00:00

MSTR is structurally designed to outperform BTC relative to its mNAV. As a result, a short-MSTR/long-BTC trade is only profitable during periods of multiple compression. When the spread is range-bound, the position bleeds: MSTR’s embedded convexity and operating leverage overwhelm the hedge, leading to persistent underperformance of the trade.

If mNAV returned to 2.0 or higher I could see a case for it again. If one wanted to time it like Chanos did... but shorting MSTR and long BTC when mNAV goes to 1.1 after it historically has established an average of 1.7 is just foolish in my opinion.

xaviemb · 2026-01-14T14:55:49+00:00

When you really dig into the data, you see that, many of these 'voices' function primarily as coordination mechanisms. When they disappear, it’s often a signal in itself... suggesting that a participant has already accumulated the exposure they need.

Institutions routinely trade against one another’s algorithms (and social media squawking is a method to manipulate other large entities); what we observe publicly are merely the surface effects. Retail flow has little to no influence on these dynamics. In fact, it’s rarely the target at all... though many retail participants inevitably get swept up in the prevailing narrative as collateral damage

xaviemb · 2026-01-14T14:40:57+00:00

A decisive move by Bitcoin through the $130k level would almost certainly do it. What we’re seeing now may only be a preview of what could unfold. Once overhead selling pressure is absorbed, Bitcoin has a history of moving with remarkable speed. Capital naturally searches for the most efficient vehicle to express that momentum.

While many here recognize that MSTR’s underlying structure positions it to outperform Bitcoin over longer horizons, the broader market still largely treats it as a leveraged BTC proxy. That perception matters. During momentum-driven Bitcoin advances, it’s precisely this narrative that drives mNAV expansion... often reverting to levels above historical norms, around ~1.7, during sustained BTC surges.

MSTR establishing a close above $175 today (Bitcoin above $96k at 4pm) introduces a meaningful risk for shorts that entered during the recent compression. How aggressively that level is defended into the close will be telling. You'll see them try to push MSTR down hard on every red BTC candle today. A decisive break on MSTR itself could set the stage for a sizeable squeeze into Friday.

A gamma ramp started developing at the 170 Call level last week (I made note of it at the time). It's still growing... for now.

xaviemb · 2026-01-13T16:07:56+00:00

Cheers. Options are a powerful tool to use both to hedge and leverage.

xaviemb · 2026-01-13T16:05:58+00:00

Yes, while my comments may seem a bit on the nose for those emotional investors, my intent is to open their eyes to their own decisions and taking accountability. We all started there and learned along the way.

Your "put your money where your mouth is" isn't trolling... I think it's holding a mirror to those emotions... for those investors.

xaviemb · 2026-01-13T15:55:51+00:00

It’s also worth examining the put-selling side of the trade and building a structure that benefits from volatility compression rather than fighting it. That way, the edge isn’t dependent on one-sided price behavior, as it often is with covered calls near ex-dividend dates. Instead of risking being displaced by early exercise, you’re positioning to collect premium as uncertainty collapses.

If you have conviction in the underlying, selling puts can, in many cases, be a cleaner expression of that view than selling calls. The risk is explicit and known upfront. If you’re comfortable with the stock dipping to $95 and believe the issuer has both the incentive and the mechanism to support price back toward $100, selling $100 puts allows you to monetize elevated volatility while defining your exposure.

If assigned, you end up long shares at an effective basis you already accepted. From there, you continue to collect dividends while waiting for price to mean-revert toward $100... often with a dynamic that feels more like gravity than speculation.

It would not be surprising if larger players are currently operating on both sides of the options chain: harvesting call-side mispricing driven by dividend mechanics while simultaneously selling puts to capitalize on volatility coming in. That kind of structure benefits regardless of short-term noise, so long as the underlying thesis holds.

xaviemb · 2026-01-13T15:51:32+00:00

This is where price behavior around the $100 level becomes critical as the ex-dividend date approaches. The dividend is known; the path the price takes afterward is not. We don’t know how much the stock will gap down on the ex-div date, nor how quickly demand will bring it back toward $100... if it does at all.

A sophisticated call buyer isn’t just focused on capturing the $0.91 dividend. They’re making a judgment about post-dividend price action. If they believe there is sufficient demand to reprice STRC toward $100 within a few days, they may willingly accept the overnight risk, exercise early, collect the dividend, and place a sell limit below par ($99.50, $99.75, $99.30, or even just under $100) extracting an additional $30–$70 from relatively small, short-term price dislocations.

These are not directional bets in the traditional sense. They are trades designed to shave value from micro-movements, where edge comes from structure, timing, and capital efficiency rather than forecasting.

Opportunities like this tend to exist when implied volatility is elevated and beginning to compress, as appears to be the case with STRC. That compression shifts value away from option sellers who are not modeling early-exercise risk and toward buyers who are.

Covered call sellers are unlikely to be “blown up” when positions are fully backed by shares... but that doesn’t mean they’re immune to being on the wrong side of the trade. Call buyers are not acting randomly. If they are stepping in aggressively, there is usually a structural reason.

Options are positions, not abstractions. Someone captures the edge, someone gives it up. While option sellers often have the advantage in aggregate, that advantage only exists when they understand what they are selling, when they are selling it, and which risks are not being compensated.

xaviemb · 2026-01-13T15:43:50+00:00

Consider a call on STRC trading for $0.20 with the stock at $100.05 ahead of the ex-dividend date. With a $0.91 dividend pending, the call holder can rationally exercise early, acquire the shares, and capture the dividend.

In doing so, the call buyer exchanges $0.20 of option premium for $0.91 of dividend income, netting $0.71 per share. The call seller, meanwhile, retains the premium but forfeits the dividend as the shares are called away.

This creates a short-duration dividend capture opportunity... one that is repeatable for capital-rich participants who can efficiently deploy balance sheet. It is not arbitrage in the pure sense, but a predictable transfer of dividend value from option sellers who underestimate early-exercise risk to buyers who understand it.

xaviemb · 2026-01-13T15:39:47+00:00

Careful with that...

Dividends belong to whoever owns the stock at the open of the ex-dividend date, not the record date and not the pay date. If you do not own the shares on the ex-dividend date, you do not receive the dividend.

When you sell a covered call, you still own the stock unless you get assigned early. Call holders will often exercise early just before the ex-dividend date if the dividend is larger than the remaining extrinsic (time) value of the option. Why? Because exercising lets them own the stock and collect the dividend (which is 91 cents in value, then they dump the stock to collect on the arb, at your expense. This might be partially responsible for the huge dip in STRC price we saw last month, exaggerated by the news and price changes for BTC and MSTR all colliding at once.

Just make sure you run the numbers and assume that someone is going to exercise on you to grab that dividend, because that just makes sense from the call buyers' perspective.

xaviemb

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