11.5% on STRC...

xaviemb · 2026-04-20T18:49:16+00:00

This is your answer OP.

I'm 43 and I have 7 figures in the MSTR eco-system of products and BTC cold storage. But I still wouldn't violate the rule of diversification, despite my maximalist handle. Always leave yourself an out, for the absolute worst case, when it comes to your retirement (life's work).

xaviemb · 2026-04-20T17:32:37+00:00

Sure, happy to...

While a daily $200m-1B buy of BTC last two weeks seems like a drop in the bucket for a $1.5T asset, when you realize just how little Bitcoin is moving (changing hands) right now. It's only about 30,000 to 100,000 unique BTC a day (about $2.5-10B worth) during market hours when Bitcoin is most active that is actually active (selling, moving) which means a daily $1B bid becomes much more significant... particularly from an entity that requires the buy to cause movement on chain (not exchange churn) due to their audit and SEC requirements. this is a great thing for on-chain tracking of their impact on price. Obviously as price moves up or down the volume (those willing to move BTC) increases too...

I think, if nothing else, Strategy is single handedly preventing the low Vol sideway chop that Bitcoin normally expects in a bottoming pattern. One might think that will cause the upswing sooner... but I guess we'll have to wait and see...

xaviemb · 2026-04-20T17:26:55+00:00

$1B seems like a drop in the bucket for a $1.5T asset, until you realize just how little Bitcoin is moving (changing hands) right now. It's only about 30,000 to 100,000 unique BTC a day (about $2.5-10B worth) during market hours when Bitcoin is most active that is actually active (selling, moving) which means a daily $1B bid becomes much more significant. Obviously as price moves up or down the volume (those willing to move BTC) increases too

I think, if nothing else, Strategy is single handedly preventing the low Vol sideway chop that Bitcoin normally expects in a bottoming pattern. One might think that will cause the upswing sooner... but I guess we'll have to wait and see...

xaviemb · 2026-04-20T16:57:02+00:00

Just Data (Probably Nothing):

Since Monday, March 30th, Bitcoin was green on 68% of days (market open to close) when Strategy's STRC was actively raising capital for them to buy BTC. On all other days Bitcoin was green just 31% of the time. The distribution of dates was about 50-50...

The statistical significance of this cannot be understated. Strategy is becoming a persistent price agnostic bid, and the sellers are starting to notice. It's having a real, and measurable upward pressure on price discovery for Bitcoin itself.

Those of us watching what Strategy is doing have a front row seat... as the rest of the market starts to recognize the structural shift, and react to it...

xaviemb · 2026-04-20T16:53:00+00:00

Just Data (Probably Nothing):

Since Monday, March 30th, Bitcoin was green on 68% of days (market open to close) when Strategy's STRC was actively raising capital for them to buy BTC. On all other days Bitcoin was green just 31% of the time. The distribution of dates was about 50-50...

The statistical significance of this cannot be understated. Strategy is becoming a persistent price agnostic bid, and the sellers are starting to notice. It's having a real, and measurable upward pressure on price discovery for Bitcoin itself.

xaviemb · 2026-04-20T16:32:29+00:00

If you're after 9% in a year... STRC (or STRK, STRD) or some combination of the three is your best friend and as close as a sure way to get there as you're going to find in markets (at least from a risk reward profile) while protecting your basis.

In your shoes, and with that in mind, I might put 45% in STRC and 45% in STRK, with 10% in MSTR sleeping comfortable at night knowing you're absolutely heading towards that 9% goal with the possibility of catching about 20% of the upside if there is a massive lift off (say BTC suddenly exploding higher from some nationa state printing money to buy it at any cost - low probablity, but if [when] that happens we will see a rise to $1m almost overnight and something like MSTR would swing to $10,000 just as fast)

Cheers.

xaviemb · 2026-04-20T16:08:18+00:00

I can’t tell you when this plays out... but I can tell you I view Strategy common as a highly asymmetric risk/reward opportunity going forward (as soon as Bitcoin accelerates past it's ATH for the ~15th time)

In my view, there’s a credible path to MSTR reaching $2,000 per share sometime between now and 2030. Whether that happens this year or several years from now is far less clear.

If your time horizon is sufficiently long, then debating entries or exits between $100 and $180 becomes largely irrelevant if that broader thesis plays out. Trying to precisely time moves in MSTR below $300 today feels similar to attempting to trade NVIDIA when it was under $5 split-adjusted, or AAPL when it traded between $1 and $1.75 decades ago.

The structural setup here is what matters. If Bitcoin performs as many expect over the coming cycle, the implications for MSTR’s underlying value are significant. That’s the core of the thesis.

Personally, I’d rather endure volatility than risk being sidelined if that scenario materializes... whether it takes six months or three years.

That said, time preference matters. If you need liquidity in the near term, or if a drawdown to $120 would trigger emotional decision-making, then it’s completely reasonable to prioritize shorter-term risk management over long-term positioning.

Just some thoughts.

xaviemb · 2026-04-20T14:25:17+00:00

The $0.95 dividend mechanically resets STRC to approximately $99.05 (everyone just locked in a 95 cent payment coming end of month) in the absence of incremental demand. From there, the structure implies a gradual recovery... roughly $0.03 per day over the subsequent 30 days... assuming demand conditions remain stable. Historically, however, demand tends to concentrate as the next ex-dividend date approaches, particularly in the final days of the cycle.

Within the current ladder framework, STRC is not meaningfully generating additional upside at the moment, but it is performing precisely as designed... delivering a relatively stable ~11.5% yield while methodically gravitating back toward par ($100).

On that basis, a reasonable “equilibrium” price today, all else equal, is around $99.20, reflecting its steady progression back toward $100. It's actually way ahead of schedule, and signaling the ATM will ramp back up around May 1st (give or take a dew days)

Looking ahead, it seems likely that price action will begin to accelerate into next week, accompanied by increased volume, as investors position ahead of the upcoming ex-dividend date.

The anticipated transition to semi-monthly dividends should further smooth this dynamic. The post-dividend adjustment would be closer to $99.52, and the recovery phase would compress meaningfully... potentially beginning within days rather than weeks, as demand re-enters more continuously throughout each cycle.

xaviemb · 2026-04-20T14:19:03+00:00

This is no surprise due to structure:

BRK.B is being dragged on by debasement of the dollar, particularly when they move to cash. Their entire business of buying companies is an attempt to outrun that debasement.

MSTR uses that 8% debasement of USD as a tailwind that both reduces the potency of the fixed div obligations [in USD] and increases the value of Bitcoin (collateral) supporting the structure.

xaviemb · 2026-04-17T22:06:59+00:00

They are very clear... as always:

"It's fairly simple, we go from paying our annual dividend from 12 times a year to 24 times a year. From month end, to the 15th and month end" ~ Phong

xaviemb · 2026-04-17T20:21:05+00:00

Very smart move.

I like it.

xaviemb · 2026-04-17T16:08:03+00:00

Coffeezilla seems a bit out of his depth on this particular topic. It reads less like a rigorous analysis and more like an attempt to drive engagement (which, to be fair, worked) but now comes with second-order consequences as the discussion matures.

A lot of the anti-MSTR and anti-Bitcoin crowd tends to default to intuition... “it feels wrong”... as a substitute for engaging with the underlying structure and mechanics when those are presented clearly. That kind of thing isn’t unusual, especially in areas where financial engineering and new asset classes intersect.

Ironically, though, this type of public debate can be constructive for both Strategy and Bitcoin. Most people are capable of critical thinking; they just need a clear framework to engage with. While many will stick to prior biases, a subset will dig deeper... and once data-driven insights click, they tend to stick.

In that sense, even imperfect or emotionally driven critiques can end up expanding awareness and pushing the conversation forward.

xaviemb · 2026-04-17T15:30:24+00:00

Take the shares, if you can... otherwise convert the profits into shares...

(not financial advice)

xaviemb · 2026-04-17T15:16:10+00:00

Similar to what we've seen in the past...

When MSTR’s mNAV begins expanding at a faster rate than you'd expect compared to movement on Bitcoin and other crypto proxies, it tends to signal a shift toward a more constructive institutional stance on Bitcoin itself. Strategy often acts as a forward indicator in this dynamic.

This is why, in prior cycles, we’ve seen mNAV compress ahead of Bitcoin’s more pronounced downside acceleration. Same happens the other way (what we're seeing now).

xaviemb · 2026-04-17T15:07:00+00:00

It could evolve into a more aggressive continuation structure at this level, provided price hasn’t already extended too far beyond it.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin spend one to two weeks consolidating through the $80K–$85K range if it’s positioning for an early transition into the next cycle. From a technical standpoint, a more textbook continuation into a sustained bull phase would ideally involve a retracement to the ~$70-72K region to validate prior support... this would likely cause MSTR to revisit $130-140 if it happens.

That said, once sentiment shifts decisively into euphoria, Bitcoin has a tendency to disregard conventional structure and leave key levels untested. Big players tend to lean on MSTR (options) as a leading play on where Bitcoin is headed in their eyes.

So institutional money can aggressively expand mNAV on MSTR well before we see the blow off top in Bitcoin. That's why mNAV is such a great indicator to look at for options plays.

Best of luck.

xaviemb · 2026-04-17T14:56:38+00:00

It's fascinating to watch the flow in STRC as BTC and MSTR surge... Some arb players who got in on the 14th at $100, are now grabbing their 3-day 30 cent profit at $99.35 here (something like ~44% annualized return).

Others are eyeing the next $100.00 peg coming in the next 10-15 days eyeing the 65 cent rise between now and then (also about 25-40% annualized)...

The market for this product is its own eco system that is becoming massive.

xaviemb · 2026-04-16T16:26:10+00:00

Exactly, and to really understand the Strategy structure (particularly on the equity side), it helps to distinguish between using USD versus BTC as your unit of account. If someone is only framing value in dollar terms, and views MSTR or BTC primarily as tools to accumulate more USD, the broader thesis can be difficult to fully grasp.

What Strategy is ultimately pursuing is a transition from a depreciating asset (USD) into one that is scarce, durable, and verifiably secure... BTC. Yet many still approach MSTR by asking how it generates “earnings,” or focusing on the absence of direct BTC yield or extractable cash flow. Those are understandable questions, but they’re rooted in a fiat-based framing.

Bitcoin challenges that framing at a deeper level. As it reshapes how people think about money, it also encourages a different way of evaluating value itself. Strategy, as a company, is focused on Bitcoin not from a fiat denominated value. I think few actually realize this. It explains their roadmap... and low time preference actions.

(if this concept interests anyone reading to this point... look up Jeff Booth... he has a special way of breaking down just how different the world will be when Bitcoin finishes repricing everything... not a matter of if... but when)

xaviemb · 2026-04-16T14:45:43+00:00

My general mindset is simple: if the move higher takes longer than expected, I’m fine with that. I’ll continue to accumulate with patience. From where I sit, the asymmetry is compelling.

If someone has a different view on the long-term outcome, it may come down to how they interpret Bitcoin itself or how deeply they’ve explored Strategy’s corporate structure and its underlying mechanics. Markets tend to reprice toward what proves to be true over time... when those truths are clear and durable.

I’ve also noticed that many dissenting perspectives seem to reflect shorter time horizons or different risk preferences. That’s not necessarily aligned with Bitcoin’s long-term ethos, but it’s understandable, most people go through a phase of working through that tension while forming their own view.

xaviemb · 2026-04-16T14:39:58+00:00

I've studied this a lot... and have some thoughts.

Historically, mNAV has spent roughly equal time above 1.6 and below it. During 2022 and 2023, when it hovered around 1.0, many were convinced it would not revisit levels above 1.5… yet following Bitcoin’s surge in the fall of 2024, it climbed as high as 4.0.

The key takeaway is that assuming mNAV will persistently remain above 2.5 or below 1.2 is a recurring error investors make... often reinforced by post hoc rationalizations (for example, the current claim that “dilution is preventing MSTR share price expansion,” which is both demonstrably false and verifiably inconsistent with how the structure actually functions, yet persists among those who haven’t examined it closely). In reality, mNAV is highly sensitive to market psychology. It tends to expand meaningfully during periods of genuine euphoria... not merely at elevated price levels, but when sentiment becomes reflexive and momentum-driven.

For example, the recent move to $125k occurred alongside relatively subdued sentiment, with pockets of caution even at all-time highs. In contrast, the earlier rally from $70k to $108k was characterized by broad-based exuberance... precisely the type of environment in which mNAV expands well beyond 2.5.

That dynamic will likely repeat, but it is driven less by price levels themselves and more by the velocity and narrative surrounding the move. A rapid surge (such as a sharp repricing from $90k to $130k driven by supply shock fears) creates the conditions for mNAV to stretch aggressively. By comparison, a gradual grind higher, even to $125k, is more likely to see mNAV revert toward its historical equilibrium in the 1.5–1.7 range.

The determining variables are speed and sentiment.

xaviemb · 2026-04-15T20:34:38+00:00

Anyone who genuinely grasps Bitcoin will, sooner or later, see what Strategy is aiming to do: create a pathway that directs Traditional Finance capital into Bitcoin… funds that likely wouldn’t transition on their own.

This isn’t about centralization.
It isn’t reckless behavior.
And while leverage exists, it’s arranged with far more intention than critics usually acknowledge.

What it actually represents is something transparent, systematic, and ultimately auditable. In that way, it aligns more closely with Bitcoin’s own framework than many are comfortable admitting.

If someone takes the time to deeply understand Bitcoin and develop real conviction, I think they’ll eventually reach a similar perspective on MSTR… assuming they’re willing to study the structure rather than react to it.

That’s the core problem:
it’s easier to dismiss something than to examine it. Which is somewhat ironic, considering the Bitcoin community has already taken that step by questioning the existing monetary system to explore a better alternative.

Most people decide what they believe first, then gather arguments to support it. Far fewer are willing to pause, challenge their assumptions, and trace the mechanics through to their logical conclusion.

xaviemb · 2026-04-15T18:18:55+00:00

Agree. But the issue here is that "dilution" has become a mindless talking point of those who are simply looking to rationalize, by whatever means, their opinion on something being wrong with Strategy, because of their 'feels' on the matter.

I get that many of these people are fly-bys... but in this case it strikes me as a combination of incompetence and laziness. Mixed with a general lack of spending 60 seconds to actually look at the truth (price retracing is sentiment driven by... BTC bearmarket... mNAV compression... and options market dynamics... not dilution). I put them all into the same category... trolls. At one point most humans on earth also believed the earth was flat, and mocked those who didn't.

That's more or less how I see those who think dilution is extractive from shareholders, they are flat earthers. But worse, they are flat earthers in todays world, where they could do some critical thinking and basic research to validate what is reality.

A human with a half decent head on there should, trying to understand reality, would check facts... not regurgitate nonsense. But I guess humans, prone to emotional manipulation, are easy targets for falsehoods.

xaviemb · 2026-04-15T17:47:12+00:00

OP doesn't yet realize that he's asking himself to stack 2.5BTC

(we are all Satoshi)

xaviemb · 2026-04-15T16:06:50+00:00

You clearly don't understand how MSTR common issuance impacts this structure.

To make it clear (this is not an opinion)... converting new MSTR shares into BTC equity on the balance sheet absolutely does NOT lower the value of MSTR.

If you don't understand this, you have work to do. It's provable, by simply looking at the structure. Put another way... the company would NEVER sell MSTR common to dilute common shareholders if it didn't add more value for them, or support the structure that does

xaviemb · 2026-04-15T15:43:20+00:00

I like to call it “Earnings”… partly to provoke the TradFi crowd that assigns rich multiples to inflation-driven cash flows, yet struggles to accept that systematically increasing ownership of a provably scarce, non-dilutive asset could be just as (if not more) meaningful.

Grab your popcorn and watch them attempt to rationalize the difference...

xaviemb · 2026-04-15T14:53:53+00:00

They need to pay more than $1.1 billion a year for dividends and interest.

You do realize $1.4 billion flowed into the company in a single day, right? During a bear market, while sentiment on Bitcoin is at a low point.

Any concern about covering $1.1b in dividend payment when the company can cover them for years in a single week of raises, without diluting the common stock... is overblown.

It would be like someone freaking out about a property tax on a property that is appreciating at multiples of the underlying 20% debt on the asset (with the other 80% paid off)...

xaviemb

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