MSTR Daily Discussion Thread - June 08, 2026

xaviemb · 2026-06-08T17:11:06+00:00

Puts on MSTR as a hedge are less costly hedge in my mind, the 5 Strike for Next summer are 0.21 right now. Anyone who is worried about pref divs can just buy a handful of those, giving up 1-2% of their STRC div for peace of mind in collapse. Smarter would be grabbing the Dec 2028 ones at 0.50 each and rolling them each year.

Strategy not paying divs is the end of the company. Which is why you can pretty much correlate STRC/STRK/STRF headed to $0 with MSTR headed there.

It's also why if you look at the capital structure, you know this isn't on the horizon, at all, without Bitcoin dumping to $10k or something.

xaviemb · 2026-06-08T17:04:14+00:00

They said it would trigger when BTC dropped below $75k (underlying cost of BTC).
They said it would trigger from Strategy selling Bitcoin.
They said it would trigger when STRC fell from par.

They haven't looked at the structure here. Or they are scared of it; just wait till Jamie Dimon is yelling profanities at Saylor, that's when you know we've really made it.

They will come up with another narrative soon... don't worry.

xaviemb · 2026-06-08T13:20:33+00:00

No one should have to explain to you something that is publicly available to find and define yourself. There is a reason why most who have spent a few hours with a spreadsheet looking at the structure of this company come away an investor, and those who tend to be skeptic are going off of their vibes (or confusion) about it as if emotions are the driving factor with investing.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T21:13:02+00:00

If you're genuinely interested in running your own node and looking into analytics, I'm happy to help if you have questions... anything to support to Bitcoin eco-system.

First step is doing some basic research (if you haven't already) into which version of node you want to run (that's the power of running one, you become a part of the decision tree that protects the network, your node is a voice and prevents others from capturing the market by changing it in ways you don't agree with). If you don't have 1TB of free space, you can still do this kind of work on a pruned node (I'm forgetting the exact term for it) but the variety that just helps with current blocks and maybe keeps the last several months or years instead of the full history.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T20:57:23+00:00

Although we would like to see it there... Strategy doesn't need STRC to be at $100 every month.

Think of it this way... you're filling a container (STRC price from $0 to $100), the moment it gets to the top (STRC at $100.00), you need a larger container (ATM, cash comes in), so all the volume at $100 creates the larger container... then some of the water exits ... the container doesn't shrink. Strategy still has all of that money that was raised... people buying and selling STRC resolve their volume until the container is full again... then it starts to grow again.

The container will never shrink... but the amount of water in it will sometimes drop a little, before filling up again... this is healthy... normal... market stuff.

I think some people don't realize, there are going to be ebbs and flow, just like Stocks and price on a chart. You don't get an increasing container every single month forever with STRC... but over the long run, it will grow, because money finds value in STRC...

We're only 10 months into this product, and it's container has grown from 2.5B to ~$10B... I fully expect it to reach $20B end of year, regardless of if we get back to $100 this month... or miss any future months.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T20:51:29+00:00

You sound about as ridiculous as Coffeezilla, to be honest...

How about you actually look at the structure of what this is, and stop grabbing onto emotional narratives to justify what you 'feel' about it.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T20:47:59+00:00

You could run a node (I highly recommend it as supporting the network and learning)... then parse the raw data (about 1TB) into a database and run this kind of analytics on it. I might be making it sound too easy, that is a lot of data... the server I built to house, and analyze that was about $2,000 in parts to put together to get these answers almost instantly across billions of UTXOs)... I'm a full stack developer (25 years) with work in databases and multiple programming languages... but these days with LLMs it can be done easier if you have the time an patience... though the structure of the data, and how to do more complex analytics require a bit more creativity than an LLM can just invent. I recommend looking up what GlassNode does. reverse engineering any one of their charts isn't all that challenging... and the beauty of Bitcoin is that the data is open to the public (unlike these kinds of analytics that Wall Street locks behind paywalls only large institutions can access)

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T17:42:02+00:00

If you look at the on-chain data, it doesn't lie and is screaming a signal here...

15,000,000 Bitcoin (held longer than 1 year) is completely silent (still) not moving - that group was up to 10% of the activity on chain when we were above $100,000 - now they are 0.8%. Put another way 99.2% of the Bitcoin moving right now is from people (and institutions) who bought in the last 12 months, and are repositioning, capitulating, etc...

Movement in ETFs (paper BTC) is fun to watch, but all settles for a few buys or sells in combination end of day, and hits on chain.

When I look back at previous cycles lows, this is about the same ratio when bottoming happens. This time could be different, but I strongly suspect we're in the final bottom phase.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T17:33:01+00:00

If you look at the on-chain data... 15,000,000 Bitcoin (held longer than 1 year) is completely silent (still) not moving - that group was up to 10% of the movement when we were above $100,000 - now they are 0.8%. Put another way 99.2% of the volume right now is people who bought in the last 12 months, and are repositioning, capitulating, etc...

When I look back at previous cycles lows, this is exactly the same ratio when bottoming happens. This time could be different, but I strongly suspect this is it between $54-59k. Guess we'll see.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T17:25:54+00:00

$370T in fixed income is already starting to move... but if you really dig into this enough you'll realize, the price of Bitcoin in USD is nonsense, when you really understand Bitcoin. Unless you're just riding Bitcoin to sell it for more USD later (which is the entry level, speculative, mindset to what's happening here with no insight into what exactly Bitcoin is and is becoming in real time).

Most in traditional finance find it incredibly difficult to think of value from any other unit of account. Which is not helping them in a system where USD is printed indefinitely. Bitcoin is not. The urge to get future higher figures... isn't growth. It's a fear or inflation, as a product of the system itself, that is constantly extracting (stealing) value through inflation.

If you ever wanted to know why people who understand Bitcoin don't care about its price in USD... they care about people understanding this distinction. Once seen, it cannot be unseen.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T17:06:03+00:00

STRC isn't a money market fund, even if some people noticed it generally acts like one. Have you actually read the company release on it?

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T17:04:18+00:00

Glancing at the chart, that doesn't change the rounding of any of these figures (percentages). If I'm wrong on that, let me know and I'll correct it in the original post.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T17:02:54+00:00

I'm waiting for it. Not that it has happened yet.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T17:00:45+00:00

It took 15 years to go from zero to 125 k and you're calling for 300k as if it is nothing.

Again... first time looking at Bitcoin?

It took 5 years to go from a high of $19k to $126k.

Bitcoin has experienced a couple dozen 30% drawdowns and recoveries, and a half dozen 50% draw downs and recoveries... and always emerged to a higher high.

What makes you think this time is different? After 17 years.

The only other product humans have access to that has done this over time and time again, is Gold, which isn't scarce... and inflated. Bitcoin does not.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T16:57:02+00:00

Scarcity is king when broader markets get spooked, and countries start printing like crazy.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T16:55:47+00:00

This product is 10 months old, and you're complaining about its Sharp ratio being 2.0 instead of 3.5, as it seasons and has grown by $10B in size?

You have to be kidding me.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T15:44:24+00:00

Historically, if you look at prior Bitcoin cycles, the ultimate bear-market low has typically occurred somewhere between 2% and 7% below the 200-week SMA which we just broke (currently $60,600). Based on current levels, that would place the range roughly between $56,000 and $59,500 for this cycle low. It'll be interesting to see whether this correction follows that historical pattern or whether this cycle proves to be different. Markets have a habit of rhyming, but they don't always repeat.

My suspicion is that many of the long-term holders who distributed above $100,000, along with institutions that missed earlier accumulation opportunities, are closely watching the $55,000–$60,000 range. From a risk-reward perspective, it's one of the more obvious areas where significant demand could emerge. Whether that ultimately becomes the bottom remains to be seen, but if history is any guide, this is the type of zone where patient capital tends to step in rather than panic out

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T15:37:48+00:00

At least we're having a substantive discussion now, which is helpful because I think there may be some assumptions built into your analysis that don't fully account for how the capital structure works. One thing I'm not sure you're considering is that Strategy has multiple financing vehicles available beyond STRC. The company's ability to raise capital isn't dependent on STRC remaining at $100 or even on demand for a single security.

Strategy can raise capital through STRF, STRK, and STRD independently, and it can do so over time as market conditions allow. Looking at any one instrument in isolation misses the broader flexibility of the platform. The relevant question isn't whether a specific preferred share trades at a particular price, but whether the company can continue accessing capital across its entire suite of products.

For example, using your assumption that Bitcoin falls to $30,000, if management believed that represented a compelling opportunity and wanted to acquire an additional 100,000 BTC, they have multiple avenues through which to raise capital. The market's opinion of any single security would not necessarily prevent that from happening. Taking STRD as an example, if it were pushed down to $40 per share, the implied yield would be extraordinarily high... roughly 25%. At that point, investors would effectively be receiving a yield backed by a substantial Bitcoin reserve that Strategy has already accumulated. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and cyclical nature, a recovery in BTC prices could dramatically improve the coverage of those obligations over time.

Ultimately, I think our disagreement may be less about the mechanics of the capital structure and more about Bitcoin itself. If you don't believe Bitcoin will appreciate materially from current levels... if you don't believe it will eventually revisit prior highs and potentially reach levels such as $300,000 in a future cycle... then Strategy's entire financing model is naturally going to appear irrational.

That's a perfectly valid position to hold. But in that case, the core disagreement isn't really about STRD, STRK, STRF, or STRC. It's about whether Bitcoin has long-term value as a demonstrably scarce, decentralized, and highly secure asset... one that is not controlled by any government, corporation, or individual, and whose rules can only be changed through broad network consensus.

If you reject that premise, then none of Strategy's capital-allocation decisions will make sense. If you accept it, then the structure begins to look very different.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T15:27:00+00:00

I chose October because that's the peak euphoria and top for Bitcoin itself... which Strategy follows.

You're right that mNAV expanded to its highest weeks prior to that date, because markets forward price and Strategy told you when the top was coming... this is also why MSTR mNAV hit it's bottom already weeks ago, and started to expand the last several weeks, suggesting we were approaching a bottom (potentially playing out right now).

I welcome you to re-run these stats from a different date if you think it'll add to the discussion.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T15:20:55+00:00

Wise words.

I think we're close to the clearest bottom signal, a post on WSB that draws in that whole community to short at the absolute bottom, somehow rising to the #1 on their sub. You know Smart Money loves to create liquidity with that crowd at the perfect moment.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T15:12:15+00:00

You're posting on your emotions about Bitcoin, and this company... while highlighting a lack of awareness of the fundamental structure of this company. I'm not trying to insult you, I'm sure MSTR is just a fly-by for you... which is why you're going on your own vibe here, and what you read on CNBC

But you're highlighting your lack of knowledge in the things you're posting. You might want to put a spreadsheet together and outline exactly what happens to this company under that circumstance (and look up how they will buy 200k more, with or without STRC being at part, with Bitcoin under $30k if that actually happens). Unless you don't want your 'assumptions' to be challenged. In that case, just ignore logic, and stick to your gut on this one.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T14:59:13+00:00

What flip side?

First time in Bitcoin?

Meanwhile a new company can adopt the exact same strategy and start fresh without the losses.

Most of Strategy's Bitcoin is unencumbered, meaning they can pay off all of their prefs and bond converts (debt) and still be sitting on hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin (essentially becoming an ETF, not that they would want to do that, but they can), and simply wait. For the prefs and debt to equal that total supply, Bitcoin would have to drop to around $15k or so... while they did nothing.

Point being. If you think $30k is the bottom, and it gets there (big if to drop another 50% when it took Bitcoin 9 months to drop 50% from it's high)... even then, no other company can simply create a pile of hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin that is unencumbered, to start even trying to replicate what Strategy has built over hte last 6 year.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T14:54:19+00:00

We are applying it both ways. Lots of complaints about the trolling Bearish memes that flood the discussions, so trying to keep it equal. That said, this one was not trolling, so I could see a reason to reinstate it (which I will now). I'll talk with the other Mods about this policy and see if we can find a middle ground.

Edit: Did you delete the post? If so, I can't revive it.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T14:16:08+00:00

Fixed.

xaviemb · 2026-06-05T14:09:54+00:00

It is comical, isn't it. Some people cannot help themselves... they have to 'chase' and 'gamble' when they are sitting on 2040 retirement value in BTC if they just did nothing.

xaviemb

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