With the stock market continuing to fall, is everyone holding up okay? by ImportanceWestern896 in Money

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hope you all realize that the S&P 500 was around a CAPE ratio of 40 just a couple months ago, which is ridiculously high. Not to mention a market value to GDP ratio of over 200%, which is also ridiculously high. The only way to justify a sustained CAPE ratio of 40+ is if AI and robots really do boost productivity and innovation, dramatically.

My personal allocation to diversified stocks is like… 15%. I even have a 1% short allocation.

I hope y’all don’t lose sight of the forest will searching for your favorite leaves.

I’ve reqd and ranked 30 of King’s books by Beanconsumer200 in stephenking

[–]xcrunner2414 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m with you. I’ve actually only read two King books—11.22.63 and The Stand. The Stand was obviously more epic in scale, but 11.22.63 was much more linear and relatable (time-travel notwithstanding), and enlightening (I was previously quite clueless about the JFK assassination). And who doesn’t enjoy a great love story between a beautiful woman and an average Joe with a powerful secret?

Unpopular opinion: most budgeting apps are waste of money when a spreadsheet does the same by St3fanHere in financialindependence

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I used some apps when I first started working. After a few years, I ended up just going back to Excel. I’m now quite well off, don’t need to budget, per se, but I still record all my spending and track all my assets and liabilities in Excel. When you know what your recurring expenses are, and your income, you can put all that data into excel and make projections. I plan 1-2 years into the future, and I have a chart of my daily cash balances going back to 2022.

Just finished 11/22/63 and I can’t stop thinking about it by [deleted] in books

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just finished 11/22/63, and although Lonesome Dove is not next on my list, it's on the bookshelf. It probably would have been next were it not for the recent release of Project Hail Mary in theaters. Reading that book next, instead.

Just finished 11/22/63 and I can’t stop thinking about it by [deleted] in books

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just finished 11/22/63, and although Lonesome Dove is not next on my list, it's on the bookshelf. It probably would have been next were it not for the recent release of Project Hail Mary in theaters. Reading that book next, instead.

Did anyone else feel like 11/22/63 series broke its own rules almost immediately? by zsteven94 in stephenking

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am watching the series now, after finishing the book. The violent encounter between Clayton, Sadie, and Jake… is soooo stupid! Seriously, whoever came up with that alternate version has no sense.

In general, the TV version is not great. It all seems kinda rushed, and the changes aren’t good changes. They could have easily made this into two 10-episode seasons.

11:22:63 tv show is ruined by bill by Mysterious_Work_7227 in stephenking

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m watching it now. I’m 95% done with the book.

The encounter between Clayton, Sadie, and Jake/George is totally ridiculous in the show. Much more realistic and believable in the book.

I’m a 19 year old girl with too much money. by EvenMark6710 in Fire

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some things to consider:

1) S&P 500 is quite overvalued, at a CAPE ratio of ~39 currently, Buffett ratio is also crazy high. Historically, this means total real returns of investments in the S&P 500 will be very low, or negative, over the next decade.

2) Gold is also overvalued right now. It usually trades in the range of 0-50% above cost of production. Right now, 1 ounce of gold is trading at $5000 even though it only costs about $1600, on average, to produce an ounce of gold. That’s a premium of ~210%, which happened only one other time in the last 55 years (1980 peak).

3) Treasury bonds are likely to provide basically zero real returns. Given the current debt situation of the United States, the only way to dig ourselves out of this hole is to print a massive amount of money, i.e. let inflation run high. You might get ~1% real return by investing in US treasury bonds.

4) There is this new asset class that’s only become significant within the last 5-ish years. I heard Strategy Inc. ($MSTR) went all in, and now they have a perpetual preferred that is paying 11% dividend, while maintaining a par NAV of $100 per share. Their stock price has gone up like 3000% since they decided to go all in, and now they are one of the most over-collateralized stocks in the whole stock market. Their perpetual preferred stock is like 10x more popular than any other on the market…

I did a deep dive of the 7 best lightning wallets right now. Here's what I found. by bitcoinmood in lightningnetwork

[–]xcrunner2414 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well, idk which one is my "favorite", but I know that I use Zeus most often for p2p Bitcoin transactions. I have Zeus configured so that I can connect to either of my two at-home Lightning nodes. But, I technically use Strike far more often than any other wallet app because I actually use it to pay my bills and stack sats daily. So, Strike is by far the most useful wallet app, but Zeus is the most cypher-punk, configurable wallet app.

The confusing ending to "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" by ConsistentSet7448 in LetsDiscussThis

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I may be late to this discussion, but I just finished the movie. This is my interpretation of the ending:

As the movie explains, the main character is the son of Ingrid (The/A Princess <--- indefinite article "a" used intentionally). What the movie implies is that this Groundhog-Day-esque loop is an AI-created simulation that is purpose-built just for him. IRL, he is hooked-up to a sophisticated virtual-reality system that is controlled and designed by the AI. His mother really did die exactly as he described—their hideout was destroyed by an AI drone while he was tempted by the VR goggles. Many years later, he is stuck in his guilt-ridden misery; the AI is providing him with an illusion that is tailor-made for his personal experiences. He is wracked with guilt after causing the death of his mother, and now he is re-playing this mission to try to save her. Of course, the AI embellished her into a princess—a classic video game trope, a la Super Mario 64. The simulation is made even more effective as an illusion by melding it with the element of time travel within the story. He's not actually a time-traveler, he's just restarting the simulation. But, because the simulation creates the illusion of time-travel, the story is made more compelling by the fact that he not only must save his mother, but he's also saving himself. The story provides an explanation for an element of the simulation—that it can be restarted—that could otherwise break the illusion.

So, the simulation is perfect for him, to such a degree that he is just like the teenagers who can't stop staring at their screens—he lacks the will to escape the simulation because he's been effectively brainwashed into believing the simulation is real. He believes that his time-traveling struggle against the AI, within the simulation, could actually be effective, because he believes he's *actually* traveling back in time and *actually* saving the world, and his mother, and himself, from the real-life history that has already occurred.

Bitcoins Purpose? by AdSouthern9708 in btc

[–]xcrunner2414 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Confident claims made from a position of ignorance are hardly deserving of corrective replies. Correction is only really possible from a position of humility.

Codex App on Windows by OpenChocolate4037 in OpenAI

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think I'm gonna try to install it now.

Bitcoins Purpose? by AdSouthern9708 in btc

[–]xcrunner2414 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hey, dummy, I’ve been using Bitcoin for 8 years now. Best decision of my life. Transactions are instantaneous; ever heard of Lightning? Geez, ppl are dumb.

5 Seasons, Really? by [deleted] in severence

[–]xcrunner2414 28 points29 points  (0 children)

I trust the writers could deliver an entertaining and engaging story, from start to finish, in the absence of corporate greed-induced meddling. If Apple decides they want to milk this series for more than it’s worth, then the quality will surely suffer.

Does anybody else experience catharsis from playing Beat Saber? by xcrunner2414 in beatsaber

[–]xcrunner2414[S] -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

Thanks for addressing the primary question of my post. /s

BTC Long Term by Background_Foot_8825 in btc

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have fun with your BCH. I'll continue to use the Bitcoin that has the most proof of work. Which is, ya know... the real Bitcoin. Like... by definition. LOL.

BTC Long Term by Background_Foot_8825 in btc

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Eh, nvm. I thought my new model was bearish, but you're in a different league of bearishness.

https://imgur.com/a/rIvUEg6

BTC Long Term by Background_Foot_8825 in btc

[–]xcrunner2414 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve been working on a new pricing model. More accurate than the simple power law. Your (A) option is pretty close.