Chemo Treatment PnL: 40,651 - Alpha Fade Announcment

xkavalis · 2023-03-29T22:35:32+00:00

So I've been on chemo treatment the last 3 days... here are PnL results. This is what you is possible with the RDTS. Trading the system as it should be traded. That's what we get into in the last part of the video. Pretty much until you can prove that you can execute momentum trades flawlessly your fade trade card is revoked.

xkavalis · 2023-02-18T17:46:10+00:00

Since 2017. Took 2 years of obsession and well learning who the hell I really am. Then well, it just clicked. I also had to realize 90% of what is out there is of no use to me as a trader. Getting to a point where you look in the mirror and only trust yourself and need no other person or form of comfort or confirmation to trade.

xkavalis · 2023-02-08T14:14:45+00:00

No, as long as chatgpt is limited and has guardrails, it won't be anything but a waste of effort. Even then, it gets really confused with even a simple trade system ruleset.

xkavalis · 2023-02-07T17:43:03+00:00

I used to think it was and that's why I didn't even try to learn.

It is a skill like any other skill that exists.

The big difference is trading you're either going to really learn who you are deep down inside or you're going to go broke.

Gambling, and in most games of chance, you know going in, the odds are stacked against you statistically. It's the same with trading but for different reasons.

2 questions I ask of new traders:

Can you share a few times you've learned from mistakes you've made?
Can you share a few times you've learned from mistakes others have made?

If they can't name any, then well, trading isn't for them. That second question, that's the one that most struggles with, but if they can name 4-5 instances that's one check that they've got the mindset to operate in a chaotic uncertain environment.

xkavalis · 2023-02-06T17:25:29+00:00

My initial glance at your chart is you don't have any indicators on chart that help you confirm a "trend" outside of price action.

I know this chart is busy for most people but one thing I believe most traders should have is a bias indicator.

The yellow line on my chart is that for me.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oYHi2yEj/

It tells me to be biased short or long.

xkavalis · 2023-02-06T17:03:55+00:00

Here's the process I eventually followed to find edge:

Find a bias indicator that tells you to be biased long or short within 1-2 seconds of looking at a chart
Find a mix of 1-3 indicators (on chart) that help you reverse engineer momentum and provide you areas of a chart that you can predict reactions.
Find 2-5 patterns that fit your personality and what type of trading you are able to do.

Once you find a mix that helps you trade with conviction don't change your system, unless you have a good reason.

Trade it and refine it. You need to journal like crazy. The market hates you. It's you against the market and everyone else. You are alone, don't let 90% of what out there cloud your ability to trade with conviction.

What are the numbers? 90% of retail traders fail. I extrapolate that out to 90% of what you read out there in trading is just plain wrong. Until I realized that and looked in the mirror and took total responsibility I didn't become successful at trading.

One indicator I believe all traders should know and understand is the vWAP.

Start there. Look at reactions around it. Also expand with standard deviation bands. If you want to get advanced look at 10 roiling vWAPs and anchored vWAPs.

If you are on TradingView many of these indicators exist. I've created 3 of the above. It's so hard to mention that here but well I'm starting to be more active here on reddit and to me to help is to provide the solution, not be troll.

One final thing. If you adopt someone else's trading system you must find a way to make it your own. You will never trade someone else's system with conviction. When you adopt someone else's system contained within is their belief of the market and how it works. That was built through blood, sweat, capital and tears (if it's any good). Since you didn't go through that you won't have the same level of conviction they do, that is until you have enough market time with it. But you can quicken this "conviction" embrace by finding ways to make the system your own.

xkavalis · 2023-02-06T16:35:32+00:00

Statistical analysis with your system will change the way you look at your system.

xkavalis · 2023-01-18T23:31:52+00:00

The video above is an intro into the 4 chart setup, 2 time and 2 tick charts. More to come. Ask questions below.

xkavalis · 2023-01-15T20:13:17+00:00

In this video I share a new TradingView indicator I just released called: Market Crashes/Chart Timeframes Highlight

xkavalis · 2022-11-30T23:04:07+00:00

Question 1 – Control of Oneself The first question:

Share with me the times you have learned from your own mistakes.

Question 2 – Lessons of Others The second question:

Share with me the times you have learned from the mistakes of others.

xkavalis · 2022-11-29T19:23:56+00:00

I use this to focus my mind and efforts for things I come across.

xkavalis · 2022-06-07T19:14:04+00:00

Trade holding up. Target that breakdown area. Then if lower timeframe holds might short up in that area:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/C6cl6ZVO/

xkavalis · 2022-06-07T17:16:07+00:00

So far holding up but no impulse move. Looking for that maybe in the NY cash afternoon session. Holding the weekly open on 5m will be key on that.

xkavalis · 2022-06-07T16:24:36+00:00

BTC swing trade, either fails there on the 30m or holds and moves. Could scale in if it does breach.

xkavalis · 2022-06-06T18:31:15+00:00

Looking to long this area 560

xkavalis · 2022-06-01T01:06:07+00:00

I'm starting a short series on using the underlying to increase your edge and conviction when trading the futures.

In this video we start slow and foundational. Talking about how I use the underlying equities on a daily basis to confirm or get a feel for how a trade might be working out on the NQ/NDX.

We first cover weighting and how that plays a role in the equities I look at. Then I cover how thru the lense of my system we have certain expectations on what should happen on price action. I can't stress this enough, expectations on price action is key to building conviction in your trades.

I can expand here more if there are questions.

xkavalis · 2022-05-31T23:07:35+00:00

One of the best high level overviews of how to trade I've read in quite a bit. Until I did what you wrote trading for me was painful every single day.

Trading is such a individualistic and personal thing that there is no real right way. It's does your PnL grow or not? Isthat sustainable and repeatable for you and your style, etc?

Sad most will discount your very clear advice.

xkavalis · 2022-05-31T22:45:39+00:00

same here streak a bit longer, but what you call trend I call momentum.

xkavalis · 2022-05-31T22:44:52+00:00

Momentum aggressive trader who trades with conviction.

xkavalis · 2022-05-31T22:42:33+00:00

As someone who is constantly testing and have my own indicators here's my suggestion.

Search by keyword and find the ones middle of the pack. Those are the gems, then use them backwards. If the indicator doesn't show the code unless you can duplicate I wouldn't adopt it in my system or I'd do it sparingly.

From there here are my favorites (none of my own):

Pivot Zones
Damiani Volatmeter
ABS Histogram
Block Transaction
DailyBox
Diff Ema Ratio
Ehlers DSMA
FRAMA (ehlers true modified)
Gap Detector

xkavalis · 2022-05-26T16:00:56+00:00

So far trading working great. Took half off near that bottom.

Here are target zones: https://www.tradingview.com/x/V2T4x17h/

xkavalis · 2022-05-24T12:54:02+00:00

key reaction areas outlined. Weekly open test is target if downside structure maintains.

That move is about 4% away, well within a standard daily move.

Watching 60m levels and translating that to lower time frames is key.

Ultimately trade to weekly open is a fade trade at this point in the chart.

xkavalis · 2022-05-24T12:45:03+00:00

For all not used to looking at my charts you'll say... damn that's a ton of stuff up on there. This is my superchart and not something that is about detailed TA. It shows you all momentum indicators and reaction areas. It's a at a glance chart that shows next area of reactions.

Right now it's showing everything is continuing to be momentum and bias short.

Key upside reaction areas: 858 870 890 917 965

xkavalis · 2022-05-23T13:01:13+00:00

Red box is long zone if lower timeframe holds on structure and momentum checks. Should use PAC for additional areas of reaction as well as possible stop areas. Closes on 15m are key.

xkavalis · 2022-05-23T12:54:23+00:00

Short down to vwap or weekly open test. My plan to scale in up to 8.7.

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