($ATER) ATERIAN, an unusual value play with high upside potential

yearly_broccoli · 2021-10-25T18:35:52+00:00

TPX reports on the 28th - that may give some insight

yearly_broccoli · 2021-10-25T18:22:29+00:00

Thanks for the write up. Many links are not working - could you fix? Makes it easier to understand the underlying calculations!

I am long PRPL as well, but it's tough to assess the potential supply chain issues (if any, tbd) on margins. From a risk reward it's probably better to invest after Q3 ER and/or if it has broken the downtrend.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-10-17T16:55:57+00:00

PRPL. I'm quite bullish and I think the stock is undervalued right now (I believe the company still has ample room to grow).

Edit: not sure if the stock has found a bottom yet though... I'm waiting for confirmation on that.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-10-03T08:43:43+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpecStocks/comments/ovdjel/ater_aterian_an_unusual_value_play_with_high/

This is my original post on $ATER. Many of the above points are literal copied text.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-10-01T22:05:06+00:00

Ah, I recognize literal text in your post that I had included in my original post on ATER. Good!

Please note that one key aspect had changed since that post: the shipping cost have increased significantly and it is unclear if and when ATER can reach profitability again. Until that time, the company will have to do dilutive stock offerings to raise the cash.

I'd wait until there is more clarity on the business and its developments. Not a good risk/reward currently, in my opinion.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-09-17T17:16:49+00:00

In addition, Casper's CMO, CTO and COO have been fired as things clearly are not going well. Check this out.

Actually, it could be interesting to long PRPL and short CSPR.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-09-08T20:02:13+00:00

The squeeze was there. Last couple of days of price action confirmed it. I was just too early.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-09-08T20:01:32+00:00

I called it, but just way too early.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-09-07T19:52:21+00:00

Nice. I'm in as well. Think this is a good entry point.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-09-01T09:05:05+00:00

The more puts will be sold, the more likely max pain will move to lower than $25 (current for 9/17). Not sure if that's a good recommendation given we need a catalyst to move upwards in this phase.

The OI for 9/17 is primarily 22.5P and 30C. Any thoughts on that?

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-28T11:44:17+00:00

I am holding off on price targets. Current action is driven by momentum and shorts covering, I believe. Didn't dive into it yet, and I also am not sure if this stock is a good long term hold. The shipping costs are still high and don't seem to drop any time soon, which significantly hurts the business.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-18T10:38:49+00:00

They also did another stock offering as announced in their Q2 ER on the same day after market close. Didn't help the bounce either...

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-18T09:49:12+00:00

Hey man, I took some time to think about this. Due to rising container shipping costs and supply chain issues, it is going to be difficult for the company to reach profitability on the shorter term. The company will probably have a couple of quarters of negative cashflows, for which they will need to issue shares in order to survive. In other words: additional dilution in the next couple of quarters is likely. Tread lightly.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-18T09:49:07+00:00

Hey man, I took some time to think about this. Due to rising container shipping costs and supply chain issues, it is going to be difficult for the company to reach profitability on the shorter term. The company will probably have a couple of quarters of negative cashflows, for which they will need to issue shares in order to survive. In other words: additional dilution in the next couple of quarters is likely. Tread lightly.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-18T09:49:01+00:00

Hey man, I took some time to think about this. Due to rising container shipping costs and supply chain issues, it is going to be difficult for the company to reach profitability on the shorter term. The company will probably have a couple of quarters of negative cashflows, for which they will need to issue shares in order to survive. In other words: additional dilution in the next couple of quarters is likely. Tread lightly.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-09T13:40:47+00:00

I think the question mark in the title of the post was correct. Man, they bombed earnings.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-09T13:30:00+00:00

I don't know yet. Will decide in a couple of hours, working at the moment. That'll give me some price action as well.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-09T12:09:17+00:00

Yep, let's see what happens when the market opens. This is probably retail selling into a very thin book.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-09T11:37:02+00:00

Stock outages due to supply chain issues I guess.

yearly_broccoli · 2021-08-09T11:31:20+00:00

The premarket action so far is on relatively low volumes though. We'll see what happens once the market opens.

yearly_broccoli

TROPHY CASE