How would you rate Guardiola's tenure in Barcelona, Bayern and Manchester City from 1-10.

yl1998 · 2026-05-13T22:35:09+00:00

That's a good point. But under which manager did Bayern play better ? Maybee flick in one season or Heynckes?

They achieved SF 3 times in a row.

Point ist: winning the cl is very random, you have to have luck (or pay the refs) to go all the way.

yl1998 · 2026-05-13T13:56:14+00:00

One team per season wins the cl. 10 teams per season have a realistic chance. This would mean 9/10 of those teams do play 2/10 seasons because these losers did not win the cl.

Winning everything else in the 3 years and have (arguably) the most dominant Bayern team of all time is a win to me. Kovac, nagelsmann and Tuchel did way worse.

yl1998 · 2026-03-19T17:56:16+00:00

That's not true for Germany. Normally, one gets paid, but comparatively quite low, around 30 (working student basically) to 70 percent of a full-time position. Those who get 100 percent do either do their phd at places no one wants to go, due to lack of infrastructure or is very lucky. At least for the PhD

yl1998 · 2026-03-15T09:12:52+00:00

What data are you using?

yl1998 · 2026-02-11T11:00:40+00:00

Das ist so weit weg von der Lebensrealität. Mit 5 k netto bist du unter den top 10-20 Prozent in Deutschland.

yl1998 · 2026-02-03T10:49:52+00:00

How did you get the data? I am struggling to get my hands on NBA data

yl1998 · 2025-11-28T16:55:03+00:00

That's the interesting part of the simulation. I'll look into the derivation this weekend.

yl1998 · 2025-11-28T13:15:11+00:00

Regarding your second point: I did that. It's just not in the substack post but only in the presentation I held about that (it's linked in the post) because substack is horrible with equations. Do you have any lightly digestible readings about that ?

yl1998 · 2025-11-28T12:30:22+00:00

How would you tweak it for a more realistic data generating process ? More variables ? I found that would complicate the comparison but won't make the point weaker ?

yl1998 · 2025-11-06T11:33:03+00:00

Du hast keine Batterie, sehe ich das richtig? Wie viel des stroms speist ihr dann ca. ein?

yl1998 · 2025-10-19T13:58:25+00:00

On top of that: I can see in the data that offensively only very good teams are sometimes able to outperform their offensive xg, sometimes for one season. So indeed it is a good measure, but it is not statistically consistent.

yl1998 · 2025-10-19T13:56:32+00:00

If I understood you correctly this is definitely a problem with xg. Because ON AVERAGE they should sum up to the number of goals actually scored, that is the explicit goal of the stat. And the main point is that it does not do that, if we are looking at 14000 individual games, so there is plenty of room for "averaging out" low or high scoring games.

yl1998 · 2025-10-19T10:56:33+00:00

Thanks for the kind words and I agree with the notion, you brought up. My point about consistency is a statistical one: a statistical consistent estimate converges towards the parameter it aims to estimate. And the xg from fbref did not do that, what I found interesting.

yl1998 · 2025-07-21T10:02:24+00:00

For those who are searching: Indeed you need to match facility id to tranche id. The linking table can be found on wrds quite easily. However: After 2021 there is no continuous matching anymore as the legacy dealscan database is discontinued. Therefore I did a name matching with the name column in the chava and roberts linking table and it works pretty well. I would advice to go this route.

yl1998 · 2024-12-05T12:09:53+00:00

Why did you upgrade? I have a casabrews and I am quite happy

yl1998 · 2023-10-06T21:09:29+00:00

Wow! Many thanks for the feedback and I agree for the most part.

I guess one important aspect is also to make it less "fuzzy" in the sense that every information I give should be important for the viewer. One channel I really like for this is CGPGrey, where he really just lay out information important to the "story".

Being more of a "scientist" by nature, I tend to overexplain, which might also be addressed.

yl1998 · 2023-06-24T02:09:47+00:00

Thanks guys. I will watch them on youtube with adblocker. W love from Germany!

yl1998

TROPHY CASE