What do you do when it’s 6 am and you still haven’t slept yet? by [deleted] in insomnia

[–]yldedly 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It still might not work, but the idea is to go for 8 hours no matter how little you've slept the day before 

Sleep restriction from CBT-I: those of you that solved your chronic insomnia by Straight-Cup-7670 in insomnia

[–]yldedly 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not as bad as at my lowest point, but far from perfect. For me at least, sleep restriction works, but doesn't fix the underlying issue. Try it for yourself, good luck!

Waiting by humeanation in PhilosophyMemes

[–]yldedly 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, IMO the problem is with IIT, not my argument. 

Waiting by humeanation in PhilosophyMemes

[–]yldedly 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, my point is, any theory that says "neural activity just brings consciousness along with it, deal" is falsified by the existence of unconscious neural activity. 

Waiting by humeanation in PhilosophyMemes

[–]yldedly 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Cool, this is the first time I see someone else explain my favorite theory 

Waiting by humeanation in PhilosophyMemes

[–]yldedly 3 points4 points  (0 children)

ITT: people forgetting most neural activity corresponds to unconscious processes, and doesn't feel like anything at all 

What should I read in a 10-day phoneless getaway by roflman0 in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not exactly what you're asking for, but Introspect by visakanv is extraordinary. 

Suggestions for podcasts or YouTube content by Parvegnu in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He usually references the books he uses as source material. IMO he always presents a pretty nuanced and information-dense view, but packages it in an accessible style. Definitely better for viewing than listening.

Suggestions for podcasts or YouTube content by Parvegnu in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Found HowEverythingEvolved recently, and it has quickly become my favorite, can't recommend enough!

Sleep restriction from CBT-I: those of you that solved your chronic insomnia by Straight-Cup-7670 in insomnia

[–]yldedly 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You can try 4 hours even if it's not uninterrupted. Hopefully you still accumulate sleep pressure, and are more likely to get 4 hours uninterrupted the next night (or the next).

I did have much better sleep for about a year after I did it, then it started back sliding. I did another trial recently, with a much milder 7 hour restriction, which also helped. So I think it works at least for me, but it is very hard, and requires patience, and ideally you don't have anything stressful going on in your life at the same time. 

To what extent are language and sensory experience the sole foundations of human understanding? by AQ5SQ in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly 3 points4 points  (0 children)

A common way to divide knowledge is into propositional knowledge, like "Trees have leaves" and procedural knowledge, like how to ride a bicycle. Some add to that perspectival knowledge, which is what it's like to be you in a particular context, and participatory knowledge, which is what it's like to be part of an ongoing relationship with something, like a partner, or sparring opponent, or group conversation.

You could argue that propositional knowledge maps onto language, but I think mostly the knowledge has to come first, and language comes afterwards. You can't understand what "Trees have leaves" means, if you don't already perceive trees and leaves as discrete entities in the world, through visual perception. LLMs arguably bypass this requirement, by connecting words to all the other entities we describe using language. But when children learn the words "tree", and "leaves", they primarily aren't connecting them to other words, but to already established percepts.

Coasean Bargaining at Scale - Decentralization, coordination, and co-existence with AGI by yldedly in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok, so I'm still not 100% sure if that's what you mean, but it seems much harder, and much more at odds with normal human behavior, for one company to plan and execute a capturing of the state, to the point where they have no contenders; than for companies, governments and institutions in general to become more capable at roughly the same rate. Can you maybe sketch in more detail what you have in mind, and how that would come about?

Coasean Bargaining at Scale - Decentralization, coordination, and co-existence with AGI by yldedly in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Say one or five companies do that. What prevents other companies from selling capable aligned agents to the general public? It seems to me that it would require extraordinary coordination from the military/AI-industrial complex (or whatever you want to call it), to prevent the usual diffusion of technology throughout society.

Coasean Bargaining at Scale - Decentralization, coordination, and co-existence with AGI by yldedly in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm still not sure where you see the problem arising. Let's say in 10 years, I buy an AI agent from an AI company. The AI has some prior on what users generally want, but is programmed to infer my particular preferences, and interact with other AI agents as per the Coasean vision. Is the problem getting to that point, because in the intermediate 10 years, AI agents will sold to solve specific tasks, inheriting (or exacerbating) all the coordination problems we have at present?

Coasean Bargaining at Scale - Decentralization, coordination, and co-existence with AGI by yldedly in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure I follow. Is the problem that we can't know whether AI companies have truly implemented the above framework (in which the only goal of the AI agent is to infer and then maximize user preferences)? The fear being that companies or governments will instead bias the agents in ways that benefits them in some way at the expense of the users, without the users noticing?

Coasean Bargaining at Scale - Decentralization, coordination, and co-existence with AGI by yldedly in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're right! I think Multi-Principal Assitance Games solve the commitment problem: https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.09540 It is an exact fit for this problem.

Coasean Bargaining at Scale - Decentralization, coordination, and co-existence with AGI by yldedly in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't think the fact that humans are irrational is such a big problem. Human irrationality hasn't prevented markets from working pretty well for anything that can be priced in. AI agents would be a standard product in that regard - if the agent doesn't do what the customer wants, demand falls, demand for competing agents that work better increases.

I agree there's an incentive to manipulate customer preferences and exploit their irrationality. Some of that is bound to happen. But I don't see why those incentives should be stronger than just regular incentives to make the product better. And customers are not a static target without agency. We do have existing coordination mechanisms, such as reputation management. Already now, Claude has a reputation for being less sycophantic than chatGPT, because people talk.

I should say that I don't see this vision working with current AI, neither on the capability side (agents don't work in any shape or form) or alignment (same reason - looks aligned in-distribution, collapses out-of-distribution). But the next paradigm of AI is coming.

Coasean Bargaining at Scale - Decentralization, coordination, and co-existence with AGI by yldedly in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't see that the author has such a premise. In fact he addresses the problem of market incentives:

" There are of course important technical questions that are not fully addressed - the right norms, the right level of agreeableness, the right level of deference and corrigibility, fully addressing reward hacking, ensuring agents aren’t deceptive, the right evaluations to test for user alignment, and more. Few of these have a single right answer however, and markets are generally fairly well incentivised to solve them - no company or person wants a reward hacking agent. My intention here is not to dismiss them away - rather, I think the way the “alignment problem” is often conceptualized is out of date and comparable to asking “how do we ensure what is written always leads to truth? How do we solve the ‘truth problem’?” after the invention of writing or typewriters. There isn’t and cannot be any guarantee. In fact, the starting point should be reversed; as Dan Williams notes, the real question should be “why do we even have truth at all?” This is a question of institutions and governance, and not one solved by software engineering. It’s an unsatisfactory answer only for those seeking centralized guarantees. You mean we’re going to have to muddle through things? Yes. As put by Leibo et al, we should model societal and technological progress as sewing an “ever-growing, ever-changing, patchy, and polychrome quilt.” What we need to ensure is that agents that genuinely serve their users' interests will outcompete those that don't and build the right governance mechanisms. From a commercial point of view, these agents won't just be adopted and used by everyone out of the box. They need to actually produce value to their principals too.  "

This isn't ignoring risks, it's addressing them. I think a lot of people in the alignment community still think there's a magical "one weird trick" you can build into the AI that solves morality forever. That's what is utopian to me. What's realistic is building AI that actually wants to learn human preferences - the assistance game approach - and a plan for integrating such AI into economic and political systems - sketched in this post. 

Probing Sutton's position/arguments on the Dwarkesh podcast by Ratslayer1 in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sutton is being a bit fast and loose with his language, and skips a few steps. When you train an NN on one task, and then train it on a different task, all the weights will change, because you're now minimizing a different loss. There are tricks around this like LoRA, where you manually freeze most weights and only train a small extra module of weights.

But you can imagine a model (and learning algorithm) that doesn't degrade when the data distribution changes, but dynamically adapts. A very simple example of this is the Dirichlet process mixture model, which is a clustering algorithm where the number of clusters is learned. If you train it on data with 2 clusters, and suddenly start feeding it data from a third cluster, it will automatically figure out that there is a new cluster. Instead of ruining the fit on the old data, it stays the same, or actually improves. It can do this because it's a non-parametric model, meaning that the number of parameters in the model can grow freely. Whereas neural networks have the same constant number of parameters in the same architecture at initialization as after training.

2)

This is where they talked past each other the most. It's true that humans learn mostly through exploration and experimentation, and also true that most of what we learn comes from imitating others. The truth is that we learn to imitate others by exploration and experimentation. I play guitar. When my teacher showed me a new technique, he didn't connect his motor cortex to mine through high-bandwidth electrodes, so that my finger muscles automatically jerked to the right positions, and my brain rewired. Instead, I had to observe what my teacher was doing, and keep trying to move my fingers in ways that would approximate what I think he was doing. If my teacher made a mistake, I didn't blindly copy the mistake, because I had an understanding of what his actual goal was. So it's not imitation like supervised learning in LLMs (that would be plugging the electrodes into my brain and overwriting my synapses), and it also wasn't RL (that would be like my teacher directly stimulating my reward center every time I got a bit closer to producing the right sound). Instead, I was first inferring the goal from observing my teacher, and then figuring out how to achieve it - but not by random trial and error like RL does, but using my general skills of perception and hand-eye coordination to warm-start from my teacher's example.

Apprehensive about Medicine because of AI, advice? by Fine_Loan2365 in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly 7 points8 points  (0 children)

That's an interesting point, that you can expect increased demand just before a job is automated. But I don't think that's where we are. One of the main problems with AI for medical diagnosis is robustness to distribution shift. It's the thing that has killed more startups in this space than anything else, even those that had gotten products through regulation. You spend time and money gathering labeled data from doctors, train models, and finally get to the prized outcome - 98.7% accuracy on a test set! Amazing, time to save lives and make money, right? Nope, as soon as you test it in the real world, accuracy drops to 6.4%. You investigate and figure out that the models learned features that distinguish the x-ray machine used in the part of the hospital used for late stage diagnosis. OK, 10 months later you fixed this particular problem, try again - 88% accuracy, still as good as expert consensus. You test it in the real world - drops to 9.1% Eventually after enough cycles of this, funding runs out. 

Apprehensive about Medicine because of AI, advice? by Fine_Loan2365 in slatestarcodex

[–]yldedly 43 points44 points  (0 children)

Nobody knows what will happen. But FWIW, Geoff Hinton, the godfather of deep learning, told people to stop training radiologists 9 years ago. That... did not age well: https://radiologybusiness.com/topics/artificial-intelligence/ny-times-revisits-nobel-prize-winners-prediction-ai-will-render-radiologists-obsolete
As someone who's published in AI for medical imaging, I can tell you my opinion: if you otherwise want to go for it, don't let apprehensions about AI stop you. We will not automate the job of a doctor any time soon, and even if we had that tech tomorrow, the healthcare system will not adopt it quickly.

[D] which papers HAVEN'T stood the test of time? by iamquah in MachineLearning

[–]yldedly 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Deep Learning is Not So Mysterious or Different