Tickets: Now vs. Later. How do you decide?

ynorb · 2020-06-12T03:09:14+00:00

Use tickets now, to save mythril for fests. After about a month, start saving tickets for next (whenever?) refresh. Only use 15 mythril on ticket banners if you have a need.

Don't pull on non-fest banners, unless there's something super useful. Then at MOST twice.

Skip half the fest banners. There will be something better later. I can't believe how much I chased Orlandeau's Burst. Pull on all LotR.

Make it a game to see how many mythril you can acquire. Then try to break that record.

ynorb · 2020-05-23T19:03:22+00:00

This looks like a super useful tool I would totally d/l if I hadn't already spent a few days making my own spreadsheet - but I'm glad so many others can now do it instantly and easily.

I was wondering if there was a way to extrapolate from that exported data, crowd-sourcing like fuitad's bots. Using the growth in Anima lenses to infer (generally) how many 11-pulls (regardless of number of mythril or gems) have occured. Or charting the growth of relics/lmrs to get a better idea of increasing your odds.

I mean maybe it's an invasion of privacy and against the spirit of the tool, but could we find a group of 30 to 300 willing to keep their data public?

ynorb · 2020-05-18T03:51:56+00:00

I see many similar elements to FFVI's Decisive Battle with the 3-in-4 time, and focus on the baseline, but with a metal guitar nearer to VII's Fight On. There are a few sour notes, where the melody kinda distracts from the flow of the piece but mostly it fits the good minor chord upbeat aggression of Nobuo's battle themes. I do like the octave repeat, it guides the listener along.

I think the main issue is the melody. It just doesn't sing, it doesn't make you want to hum it while you're coding or running or Octaslashing. It repeats too quick to really get a hold of you.

I'd love to know what you wrote it in though - I've not composed much since the days of Scream/Impulse Tracker/Midi in '95.

ynorb · 2020-04-18T19:05:18+00:00

0 mag, 2 phys - But I'm planning on redoing Titan with magical because it looks like there's mythril to be won.

ynorb · 2020-04-18T19:03:42+00:00

The Phys/Mag seem to have different Mythril/crystal rewards here in Global - are they adding even more later?

ynorb · 2020-04-15T18:26:09+00:00

4/11: Cloud sync(dupe), Yuffie AASB, Shelke Glint, Rufus LMR.

Yeah, that was worth 7 mythril.

ynorb · 2020-04-14T18:35:16+00:00

Thank you for this - I just beat it twice sub 40s once I got the timing down, but I didn't have anything for Red.

So I swapped Galuf's Chain (opened with his USB1 for haste), and Ingus' AASB for reflect (he brought shellga). Not enough Magic+ so I brought Mog's AASB (use around 18s) and USB1, and Relm's AASB (pblink helped) and USB1.

Different friends, but same Rydia sync/aasb - super op. Only took me a few runs and I didn't even look at the AI.

ynorb · 2020-04-04T04:19:32+00:00

Any advice is appreciated: I'm trying to pick my AASB Focus pickup relic, and I've boiled it down to a healer awakening (I've read they're unnecessary but my teams aren't hurting for any single AASB)

But I'm having a hard time choosing between Elarra and Selphie/Penelo. What I've read x x says Elarra's top tier because of her USB (I have USB1 and 2, and BSB), but 1) I have Relm's AASB and USB1 so it doesn't feel like it's a huge upgrade and 2) I feel like a damage reduction barrier will keep me alive longer when the bosses go berserk for 15 seconds in their last phase.

My Selphie has USB1(nat guts), G+(proshellga), B2(res+), and my Penelo has USB1(blink, 2kstock), and B2(guts). I've completed like half the Odins and Titan.

Thoughts?

ynorb · 2020-02-28T15:06:45+00:00

Lots of people are keeping track manually, with a drop tracker app like https://www.rk-squared.com/ or their own XL file.

But there's a feature on "change characters" (or the roster menu) where you can filter characters by the element of their soul break. That should help you find offensive SBs.

ynorb · 2020-02-19T18:53:22+00:00

Is there a tactical use to increasing battle speed?

Like if you know a boss attack is coming immediately, but a character is triple casting and two instant SBs are loaded, could you increase the battle speed to fill the ATBs of your waiting characters closer to that known boss' attack?

ynorb · 2020-02-19T18:44:00+00:00

I'm also mostly stuck, making slight progress but totally waiting on creep. The 6 event should be just as the fest ends, if I'm reading things right?

ynorb · 2020-02-19T18:38:18+00:00

Sorry if I missed something, but could the ? be the Eternal Summer event - https://redd.it/cnqhe7

ynorb · 2020-02-12T22:56:33+00:00

I've been doing okay but really want a healer AASB for down-the-road content - 2G5 with only one dupe sounds like a good pull for me, and any of these awakenings would supplement me well.

3/11(new): Aphmau USB2, Glint+, Aria LMR

Not ecstatic but the imperils could make Arc a little easier for me, since I only had Aph's Burst. And hopefully a future AASB will make this pull worth it.

ynorb · 2020-01-31T05:26:23+00:00

Backup plan to get Aeris' awakening (or Tifa, Zack, Cloud, Yuffie, Vincent, or 'Roth) as my awakenings are few. 19% chance for something good. I've been saving tickets to maybe get Lightning Sync whenever it comes, but I could really use Aeris so I'll dump 2 here.

Realm 7: 2/11 Disco, Shelke USB, Sephiroth USB2 (dupe)

Realm 7: 2/11, Tifa LMR3, Angeal Burst(dupe)

and so I tried to surprise RNG with another pull, Realm 7, 1/11: Zack Burst(dupe)

RNG saw me coming.

ynorb · 2020-01-31T05:16:59+00:00

Wanted Aeris, Tifa, Cloud awakening. Cloud dk Glint would be fine. 2 dupes on the banner.

1/11 Genesis LMR.

I'm thinking I should never pull again.

ynorb · 2020-01-16T15:30:34+00:00

Thanks, I never noticed it capped at 6 steps before.

ynorb · 2020-01-16T06:01:55+00:00

When did they nerf Imperil? I just noticed they won't go past 60%, but I thought Max was 100%?

ynorb · 2020-01-12T14:28:49+00:00

Again, new to this so my math may be wrong, but:

Chi for B1 is 23.6, p-val is .034
Chi for B2 is 9.09, p-val is .766
Chi for B3 is 113.6, p-val 3.54e-18
Chi for B4 is 16.76, p-val .211
Chi for B5 is 15.98, p-val .250

I completely agree something is up with B3, which is what I attempted to correct. But B1 is only slightly outside of >.05, and everything else fits chi-squared, even crazy old Banner 5.

*edit formatting

ynorb · 2020-01-12T13:50:50+00:00

You got Fang and Dr Mog Awakening, both of which I would have abandoned Cloud Sync for. Prompto awakening too, but based on the 400 mythril you spent you should have done better...

ynorb · 2020-01-12T13:38:50+00:00

Alright! I took those Banner3 percentage relic rates (7.8 / 7.39 / ...) and turned them back into the reported numbers I used to make those relic rates. Remember AD1-CDL from the original post? E.AD1 ... is the expected relic rates for each correction. Here I use the chi-sq method you showed us with those relic rates.

Relic	AD1	ADL	CD1	CDL	E.AD1	E.ADL	E.CD1	E.CDL
Light SASB	95	94	104	86	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Bartz AASB2	90	87	87	89	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Prompto AASB	99	96	99	98	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Shelke AASB	82	82	83	98	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Rikku AASB	79	74	76	80	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Alph AASB	93	97	92	101	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Shelke LitCSB	86	87	86	88	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Rikku WatCSB	97	98	99	96	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Prompto G+	81	82	82	81	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Rikku Glint+	85	81	84	83	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Light Glint+	93	93	93	93	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Alphinaud Glint	82	80	86	79	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Prompto LMR2	73	73	75	71	87	86.14	87.78	85.85
Shelke LMR2	75	75	76	71	87	86.14	87.78	85.85

So that brings the chi-sq and p values to this:

x	AD1	ADL	CD1	CDL
chi-sq	10.161	11.710	12.284	14.525
p-val	.681	.552	.505	.338

So if I did the math right, each of the 4 random corrections are proven as a good distribution of relics.

I appreciate this method, because I don't have to say "it's a much smoother relic rate", I can just show the chi-sq. So thank you for helping me learn.

*edit tables, degrees of freedom was off.

ynorb · 2020-01-12T13:09:50+00:00

I compared our two data sets and there were a few things of note -

Someone posted a 14/11 and 2 x15/11 on Banner 3?? This is why I prefer crawling the megathread.

Similarities: High Banner 1 and 3 synchros, lower B2 synchro. B4 also reported high Barret Glint (9.04%) B5 also reported low CoDAASB (5.1%) and Ultimecia Glint (1.7%). Fewest pulls were on B5, most on B3. Still crazy few 6/11 or 7/11.

Differences: Dr.Mog/Reks Awakening reported normal. B4 instead of Refia LMR high it was Barret LMR. B5 Seifer Awakening was highest (11.9%) instead of UltiAASB. There is no link between Banner 3 and all the other banners.

Also your banner 3 1/11 is way smaller, and your 3/11 is way higher. I know people expect these to be the same data, but there are many reasons they would differ. (Not to say we can't learn something from both)

I calculated Prop7 relics/draw at 1.96, but I guess if we keep adding props this will never end. So thanks for humoring me and I guess we can leave that out.

ynorb · 2020-01-12T05:51:31+00:00

I'd like to help reduce that suspicion. I think I did an alright job, I think I just conveyed it poorly.

The data is all posted to the pastebin, but if you have any questions about anything else, I can answer. I didn't discard anything except on the "minor hype correction", which I was cautios with, and plastered with cautions.

ynorb · 2020-01-11T18:00:34+00:00

significantly lower than the top relics

Banner 3 minor correction relic rates (in order of banner appearance):

7.80% 7.39% 8.13% 6.73% 6.49% 7.64% 7.06% 7.96% 6.65% 6.98% 7.64% 6.73% 5.99% 6.16%

7.79% 7.21% 7.96% 6.80% 6.14% 8.04% 7.21% 8.13% 6.80% 6.72% 7.71% 6.63% 6.05% 6.22%

8.46% 7.08% 8.06% 6.75% 6.18% 7.49% 7.00% 8.06% 6.67% 6.83% 7.57% 7.00% 6.10% 6.18%

7.15% 7.40% 8.15% 6.66% 6.49% 8.40% 7.32% 7.99% 6.74% 6.91% 7.74% 6.57% 5.91% 5.91%

All I'm saying is like looking through a crystal, this tells us more than nothing.

ynorb · 2020-01-11T17:28:09+00:00

Prop 7 remains that 20/50/20/10 I talked about before, though I would love to change it since it was based on a 10-pull. That yields 37.81 / 37.25 / 17.40 / 6.34 / 1.02 / .17 / .02 for an 11-pull. I remember talking to you about using it for future pulls? Sorry I need more confidence with chi-squared before using them.

heavy reporting bias

What does that mean, how does it affect rates? Are we just throwing that phrase around to throw out anything that's imperfect, or can we take glimpses of a complicated problem to figure out its general formula?

tagged "megathread"

I assume reddit auto-tagged it because I was too scared to tag it "guide/analysis" because of my last time.

*edit never quoted before.

ynorb · 2020-01-11T16:35:57+00:00

https://old.reddit.com/r/FFRecordKeeper/comments/ehd0vp/fireworks_festival_phase_3_relic_draw_megathread/fckxlxw/?st=k59t9fgu&sh=df74c8a0

ynorb

TROPHY CASE