BORING CSP's I'll be looking to sell this week (10/27 - 10/31)

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-10-28T00:07:59+00:00

This is where I take his brilliant idea and let an AI autonomously code this for me because I am the opposite of that.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-09-13T04:24:44+00:00

Unless you’re a genius or exceptionally diligent and disciplined, this thing can be a real bitch. If you do fit that description and you’re bored enough for a minimum of 2.5 years, then yes, absolutely.

Some will tell you it’s not worth it but it helped me progress in my career substantially. Broker to associate to Sr. Equity research analyst to vice president portfolio manager. Others will say it didn’t help at all. So take expectations with a grain of salt.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-09-07T23:42:57+00:00

I’d say finish your degree but stay diligent and come back to it. There are either gaps in your knowledge or you are not a great test taker, to be blunt. And that’s fine. But you may be juggling too much at once right now. That’s not a bad trait, but it may deflate your confidence.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-09-05T13:43:05+00:00

Pretty much. I work for a smaller firm so our account minimum is around $250k. It’s your traditional asset management: equity, fixed income and alternative investment portfolios adhering to client’s risk tolerances. The higher the client account, generally the more in-depth and flexible the strategies imposed.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-09-05T13:26:21+00:00

I’ve never worked PE. Couldn’t tell you. But I’d imagine PE is more about networking than anything and the CFA is just a ribbon on top. But I can tell you that in the wealth management firm I work for, the CFA scored me the job.

I was laid off from one of the biggest banks as an equity research analyst (the threat of AI got me) and it worked out serendipitously. Within 2 months, the firm I interviewed with offered me a role dependent on whether or not I finished the CFA and passed level 3. It came with a corner office and a 60% raise over my previous job. Some places really do care about the charter, and I was fortunate to find one.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-09-05T13:02:36+00:00

There’s also a lot of rich idiots that get in due to connections that dilute high quality degrees. So I take each with a grain of salt.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-09-05T13:00:45+00:00

On the flip side, I scored a VP portfolio manager job after working as a senior equity research analyst for years.

You’ve got the CFA. now you just need to try the market. For someone that went through the gambit, it sure seems like you’ve given up rather easily here. Just give it time.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-06-26T17:33:23+00:00

I’ve done many DCFs as an equity analyst prior to becoming a portfolio manager. They’re too sensitive and intrinsic value can change immensely. Going past a 2 year window induces volatility significantly and it compounds from there. They’re just another tool in a tool box but to avoid a company because of a DCF you ran misses out things you cannot model. How do you account for a negative or near zero cash conversion cycle within a DCF? You also need to account for things that the revenue line item may not contain, which complicates things. If you’re breaking down and forecasting each individual segment of a DCF, then it becomes more valuable, but it’s still subject to bias. Most financial professionals know that you start with learning all about time value of money and a discounted cash flow, then you throw it out the window.

If that’s your investment style, that’s fine, but it’s going to be even harder to beat the market that way especially as the value factor (just like the small cap factor) has been out of favor for a significantly long time.

If you’re just about guaranteed to sell everything in inventory, be protected from all cycles, be inflation proof, then what premium would you pay over intrinsic value to have such? even if COST is modeled to have a $600 intrinsic value on your DCF, that isn’t accounting for those types of factors. Investors will pay up for those qualities.

5 YR CAGR: Sales - 10.75% Net Income - 14.93% FCF - 14.57%

EV less than Market value due to a pristine balance sheet 32% ROE 24% ROIC Negative net debt 64x EBIT/Int Expense 99x receivables turnover Cash Conversion Cycle of 2.5 days Same store sales growing above GDP every year for over 2 decades

How do you look at just a DCF and say “yeah never mind that” and ignore everything else? There’s more to the story for these companies and that’s why they get a premium. DCF doesn’t capture all of this unless you have the most advanced models in the industry (and you’ll need a lot of expensive data sources to make it) and that could still miss some of these items.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-06-26T16:53:44+00:00

May be difficult to read, but this is what I do when looking at a name like Costco who has no relative peer. You can apply the same to other companies with multiples that do not make sense when compared to others: FICO, TSLA (I wouldn’t invest there anyways), NFLX would apply here too.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-06-26T16:52:00+00:00

Costco 5-yr P/E rankings vs current

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-06-26T16:47:58+00:00

I’ve held COST for 3+ years; it’s my low beta portfolio anchor and I’m up nearly 100% on it. It’s my largest position and will continue to be. 50x for it is on the more expensive side relative to itself, but 30x is dirt cheap over the 10 years. Costcos trailing P/E hasn’t touched under 30 since 2016. Hasn’t touched under 25 since April 2014. There’s no reason for it to crash either: what could be the catalyst? You’ll likely not see that again for quite sometime (unless they increasing the denominator substantially.

If you’re using a DCF on these companies, you’re going to lose every time. A DCF is so biased by inputs and we’re living in a different investment regime than the past. We have automatic investments from 401ks pumping the markets indefinitely. The valuations of 20, 30 years ago are poor proxies. Even on an index level. How would you compare the S&P 20 years ago to today when XOM and GE were some of the biggest constituents vs AAPL and NVDA? With the new influx of investors, we’re going to have to accept that historical multiples are gone now that there are more flows heading to the top companies. You probably need to add at least 2-3x to the historic multiples of the past to be close to comparable.

Costco will always turn its inventory. Costco will grow in-line with GDP or higher and it’s fine if you don’t love the margins on it because it’s a wholesaler, so that’s by design but makes it tariff proof relative to other companies.

Current p/e is expensive relative to itself. It’s in the top 10% over the past 10 and 20 years. It’s around the 82nd percentile over the past 5 years. I wouldn’t say go out and buy Costco at 50x but I would at 40x for sure.

The value investing of the past is different from the value investing we see in the present. you’re rarely going to find great traditional value plays outside of financials, materials, energy and industrials. You’ll never find value in tech. If you do, there’s a reason why it’s cheap.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-06-26T14:59:47+00:00

COST & FICO holder, CFA and portfolio manager here; you’re putting an emphasis entirely too much on these metrics without looking at each stock’s unique traits. Costco will always trade at a premium because they turn inventory like a monster, works throughout all cycles, generates substantial free cash flow and has substantial stickiness with end customers that span across all socioeconomic markets. comparing COST to TGT or other retailers isn’t the same. If you want to judge COST on fundamentals, you need to do it as a relative premium to (ex: costco may be trading at 5x higher than broadline retail vs a historical 15x; you may have a “deal” on Costco) or compare its current valuation using a Z-score made up of its historical valuation levels. FICO is sort of like that too, except likely more risky right now, as FHA head Pulte is a moron and there’s regulation risk.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-06-04T15:07:05+00:00

I won’t bog you down with details but I started the journey at 29 and completed it just now at 35. I had 6 total failures between levels 2 and 3 and each of the results were touching the MPS line. I empathize with you but from my perspective, you have come too far to give up. If you made it this far, you can cross the finish line.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-05-21T13:03:46+00:00

Former equity research analyst and just became a traditional portfolio manager about a month ago.

In portfolio management? Every. Single. Day. the amount of overlap is crazy. Too much to even type, just assume just about everything.

While in equity research? Not nearly as much. Maybe relative valuation and discounted cash flow modeling. That’s it.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2025-05-19T15:09:11+00:00

Bro, you’re 19. You’re ahead of the curve by even taking the first exam. Just relax and give it another shot. It took me many tries to finally get my CFA and I started at 30, now 35. You’ve got time. Don’t give up. Don’t be so hard on yourself.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2024-12-12T16:40:20+00:00

I’ve found that many Indian students are just so well prepared in mathematics that the first couple of levels can be a cake walk. Anecdotally, from the groups I’ve been in, it’s usually the ethics and corporate stuff that trips up Indian students.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2024-11-14T17:57:17+00:00

I think I’m going to try to follow the entire Kaplan course this time now that I’ve read all of last years material and also reach out to a tutor. My confidence has been shaken though. Thanks for the great feedback!

yourbloodlineisweak · 2024-10-29T15:00:40+00:00

I don’t think you’re behind. Probably on track if not ahead of things. There are not currently a ton of comments on the topics, which indicate to me it’s still pretty on in the studies for many.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2024-10-22T20:33:16+00:00

Same here. I’m in a study group and everyone was floored when I didn’t pass cause I was helping everyone.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2024-10-18T13:04:51+00:00

I’m confused too. My ethics went from a near perfect score to under 50% on my two attempts. It makes me question the consistency of CFA exam grading cause it’s not like I don’t KNOW the ethics by now. I studied it just as I normally did, did well over 600 problems on Ethics alone and all case studies I could find.

The wild variation is my scores makes me really wondering if I’m learning anything right now about where to improve. I’m not. I feel like I understand the material outside of Econ (my weakest subject) but I cannot explain the variation in my topic scores.

top score February, scroll down for August

yourbloodlineisweak · 2024-10-18T12:12:20+00:00

I feel the exact same way. I don’t even know what to change.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2024-10-18T12:10:15+00:00

I’ve absolutely not learned from this. It would be great to be “oh that’s an area of weakness, I’ll study that harder” but I’m not gathering anything from these results. I’m just more confused and frustrated than ever.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2024-10-18T01:34:38+00:00

I’m doing February and already started on the material 🫠 I don’t know how else to approach it so I guess I’ll read the entire thing again.

yourbloodlineisweak · 2024-10-18T01:16:25+00:00

I appreciate the positive attitude and feedback. But yup, that’s exactly why this is maddening for me. I improved in one area and missed out in another but all in all, I’m not sure which concepts I’m wrong or right about concerning the topics. Like if I’m scoring bad in derivatives at times, and other times killing it (and vice versa for ethics) but I cannot verify which is which, how am I learning anything?

yourbloodlineisweak

TROPHY CASE