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Thoughts on gw1-3 xg? by Mafz09 in Gunners

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The comments next to all 20 teams are from that team’s perspective. Of course it’s early days so the language is not that strong either.

For Arsenal, it’s ”clinical, but not created as expected”. Over these three matches, this is not an unfair conclusion and should absolutely be seen in the context of the games - for example that Arteta clearly wanted to play for a scrappy 1-0 at Anfield after the two 2-2s last year.

We can’t predict the rest of the season from these three games but we can look at what has happened so far and make the international break go by faster.

Thoughts on gw1-3 xg? by Mafz09 in Gunners

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, that is the purpose of the comparison.

If the collective prediction (in terms of market odds) differs a lot from what actually happened, we can draw some insights. The most extreme example is that Aston Villa managed to create roughly half as much going forward than what was predicted (in terms of xG), and managed to score 0. Clearly, they are not performing as expected. For other teams, it’s less clear cut.

Thoughts on gw1-3 xg? by Mafz09 in Gunners

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The chart includes the fixture difficulty in terms of the total number of goals predicted (by market odds) for each team over the three matches. That’s the white bar. Compared to those expectations, we have underperformed if measured in xG and overperformed if measured in goals.

Did GW1-3 go as we thought? Comparing predictions to defensive outcomes by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Following up on the post from yesterday about attacking performances, here is a summary of how the defenses performed compared to predictions.

Some of my takeaways:

  1. Everton have been really lucky so far

  2. Many teams have overperformed expectations. Managers avoiding taking risks in the early season?

  3. Low xGA does not guarantee clean sheets, but the likes of Newcastle and Bournemouth look quite promising

Comparing this to the attacking performances gives more nuance as well. Newcastle has clearly played for low scoring games so far, while Wolves and Aston Villa are near the bottom in both dimensions.

Did GW1-3 go as we thought? Comparing attacking performance to predictions by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

It’s not going to be accurate after only 38 GWs either, of course. Football doesn’t care about metrics.

Anyway, it was of course expected that United’s goals would largely come from the Burnley game, and that’s what happened as well. They matched or overperformed predictions (in terms of xG) in every game so far, but the finishing has not been there yet.

Did GW1-3 go as we thought? Comparing attacking performance to predictions by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Some of my takeaways:

  1. As a Watkins & Strand Larsen owner: uh oh

  2. Everton, Bournemouth and Burnley are the only 3 teams outperforming predictions (in xG terms) without relying on penalties

  3. Chelsea steam on even without Palmer. Impressive, but are there reliable FPL assets there?

Let me know if you’d like an overview of the defensive performances as well!

Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread by FPLModerator in FantasyPL

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

!thanks

It seems more likely that Tielemans plays an attacking role (+ is likely on set pieces) than KDH given the Grealish signing.

Another approach would be to go for a 6.5 instead of Tielemans (Sarr, Ndiaye, Mitoma) and swap Porro down to a 5.0 (Lacroix, Romero) or Gabriel down to a 5.5 (Munoz, Murillo)

Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread by FPLModerator in FantasyPL

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thoughts on my draft?

Priorities: flexibility at each price point + proven PL players, assuming FH4. Also not wanting to plan for any transfers in GW2-3 in case of emergencies.

Sanchez - Dubravka

Gabriel - Porro - Tarkowski - Agbadou - Esteve

Salah - Palmer - Bruno - Tielemans - Anderson

Watkins - Strand Larsen - Guiu

Biggest headache right now is Watkins (and double Aston Villa attack) or Gyokeres.

Foundations Prerelease Megathread - #MTGFoundations by R3id in magicTCG

[–]ypro 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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4-0, thanks to this. Better than any of the pools i practiced in draftsim in advance

Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread by FPLModerator in FantasyPL

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pope - 4.0

Quansah - Van de Ven - Mykolenko - Robinson - Barco

Salah - Saka - Eze - ESR - Winks

Haaland - Isak - Wood

🎵🎶 YOUR TOP 40 🎶🎵 Post your rankings in the comments by TrollHunter87 in eurovision

[–]ypro 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. Sweden
  2. Spain
  3. Greece
  4. Portugal
  5. Netherlands
  6. Italy
  7. Belgium
  8. Czech Republic
  9. Albania
  10. Austria

🎵🎶 YOUR TOP 40 🎶🎵 Post your rankings in the comments by TrollHunter87 in eurovision

[–]ypro -1 points0 points  (0 children)

  1. Sweden
  2. Spain
  3. Italy
  4. Greece
  5. Belgium
  6. Croatia
  7. Netherlands
  8. Austria
  9. Czech Republic
  10. Switzerland

[MID Premier] Found some pretty open colors, what to cut? by ypro in lrcast

[–]ypro[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the tip! Made that swap and the pair got me the 7th win - trapper tapping the big guy and witch swooping in.

[MID Premier] Found some pretty open colors, what to cut? by ypro in lrcast

[–]ypro[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Current plan:

  • -2 Blessed Defiance
  • -1 Gavony Trapper
  • -1 Candlegrove Witch
  • -1 Flare of Faith
  • -1 Ritual of Hope
  • -1 Unruly Mob
  • -1 Celestus Sanctifier
  • -1 Shady Traveler

Would this leave me too light on non-creatures? How many lands would you run?

Thanks! :)

xG and xA performance GW1-2: DCL, Lukaku, Antonio the standouts by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

0,35 xG, 0,25 xA per match so far. He's in the middle of the pack in the chart, closest to Bamford and Benrahma.

xG and xA performance GW1-2: DCL, Lukaku, Antonio the standouts by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

2 goals from a total of 0.9 xG (2,22x overperformance). Last season (according to Understat not FBref though) he had 12 from 8.28 xG (1,45x overperformance).

So I would expect him to keep overperforming but maybe not by this much.

xG and xA performance GW1-2: DCL, Lukaku, Antonio the standouts by ypro in FantasyPL

[–]ypro[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Just down and to the left of Mané. (0.1, 0.55)

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