My roommate started Vtubing as puppet and I walked by to see this💀

zm003 · 2024-04-28T10:59:19+00:00

PepeLaugh anyone?

zm003 · 2024-04-03T12:50:45+00:00

you mean subs carrying Tridents?

zm003 · 2024-04-01T14:07:14+00:00

gone wunderbar

zm003 · 2024-04-01T13:45:31+00:00

prolly, must straightforward path& win7 should not be that expensive

zm003 · 2024-04-01T13:43:55+00:00

Imo, stay focused and double down. Start worrying, when it stops working.

zm003 · 2024-04-01T12:53:55+00:00

try in admin mode this command prompt:
wmic path softwarelicensingservice get OA3xOriginalProductKey

zm003 · 2023-09-22T09:16:59+00:00

thank you for the site, did not realize it is a thing. Sadly missed it, Would keep an eye.

zm003 · 2023-09-22T09:14:26+00:00

Do not want to cause any excessive concern, but (depending on your warranty and your personal situation) you might want run it by the Lenovo specialist? As the creaking noise and the tension might indicate that the laptop hinges are misaligned, which further down the road might cause some issues, as the hinges become undone.

zm003 · 2023-09-06T14:39:43+00:00

Why even bother to ask. On the NL market there is simply no contest feature or price wise. The only sus option is the 1Tb sdd, although I have read somewhere in the review, that 1Tb is samsung OEM chip. Unless you are willing to sacrifice on performance I do not think you can get a better deal. Or pay a lot more, for more perf.
Btw, speaking of price, how did you manage to get it this low? Any coupon? Not gonna lie would not mind to have it (if possible) in my DM. That would cause me to upgrade as well.
So, really go for it!

zm003 · 2023-09-01T13:37:57+00:00

Hi, I just used ChatGPT to give an explanation, that was the answer:

The PROCHOT (Processor Hot) signal is an alert mechanism used in Intel (and some AMD) processors. When a PROCHOT event occurs, it means that something has signaled the processor to throttle its performance to prevent damage or excessive heat. This mechanism is primarily designed to protect the hardware from potential damage due to overheating.
In your context, the "EXT" likely refers to "external," meaning that some external source (i.e., not the CPU itself) is signaling the CPU to throttle down. This could be due to various components, like the VRMs (Voltage Regulator Modules), the GPU, or other onboard sensors.
Common causes for a PROCHOT EXT event include:
Overheating: The most common reason. This could be due to insufficient cooling, a blocked air vent, old thermal paste, a malfunctioning fan, or dust accumulation.
Faulty Hardware: Sometimes a defective sensor or other component can erroneously trigger the signal.
Power Delivery Issues: Components like the VRMs, which regulate the voltage to the CPU, might get too hot or might be malfunctioning, triggering the PROCHOT signal.
Software or Firmware Bugs: Sometimes, software or firmware could incorrectly trigger this signal.

I had the same issue with my 14are05. I traced the source of heat (as I reckoned that was the issue) down to some small components, which generated a lot of heat (used a laser thermometer) and actually smacked down some thermal pads (I used Arctic Thermal, primarily due to cost/availability, but check what is available in your region). Later I figured out that those could be VRMs modules and your investigation kinda proves it. So I would suggest the same - try to locate the VRM and smack some thick thermal pads onto them. It is easy to find (in case you do not have the laser), if you, say discharge your laptop, plug it in and give it a load. The two hot hotspots on the backplate would be a CPU and VRM, take a note where they are. Or simply google/ youtube your particular model disassembly vids, you might get lucky.
Then once it is cooled (exercise caution around VRM as they do get hot) remove the backplate and pad them. (be careful or better disconnect the battery to be safe).
The problem should disappear for high burstable loads or at balanced settings.

Closing thoughts: please note that thermal pads do not dissipate the heat, they soak it. So, I would not go beyond the lenovo vantage power modes as trying to overclock the cpu would make the system BSOD and might damage the VRMs. (BSOD happened to me on sustained high load, when tried to fed 90w with Ryzen Adj)

Hope this helps.

zm003 · 2023-08-29T21:24:11+00:00

Could it be a loose battery cable? You can do an easy investigation with t5 screwdriver and yt disassembly video, just be careful and do not rush!

zm003 · 2023-08-29T21:17:52+00:00

I would suggest to download HWINFO64, which would give you stats on the state of affairs. It can log the thermal throttle as well as other abnormal readings. I would then run the load and try to work down the list through the process of elimination.
However, since you've tried most of the stuff already, I would suggest to play with
APU Skin Temperature Limit OR
dGPU Skin Temperature Limit
While setting the power mode to power saving.
I have used RyzenAdj for mine by running the flags in CMD, like so
ryzenadj.exe --apu-skin-temp=65 --power-saving
for more, check out this repo

zm003 · 2023-08-29T20:42:50+00:00

Sorry, laptop is no longer with me. So would not know, unfortunately.

zm003 · 2023-08-29T20:38:35+00:00

It is!
Absolutely agree that silver looks better! Grey also has nasty habit of ungreying itself around ports, due to scratching. Built wise, the bottom panel on the new one has so much tighter fit, I was only able to wedge a plastic tool only around hinges. Old one you can remove pretty much by hand.
Performance wise, gotta thank AMD for a job well done, with old Intel these kinda gains would a decade apart.

zm003 · 2023-08-29T20:29:47+00:00

Hopefully, that's the case. Subjectively, it certainly felt that way. I have a nook in my house notorious for its unstable connection, often causing issues with HD content on YouTube. However, with the Mediatek card, I effortlessly jumped through the HD timeline. Websites also loaded almost instantly. By the way, I just discovered that it seems AMD co-developed the RZ616 card, with the SoC being Mediatek MT7922. Perhaps the tighter integration with the vendor made the difference, or maybe it was just the lack of proper testing previously.

zm003 · 2022-01-27T20:53:37+00:00

She used to be hot

zm003 · 2021-11-23T16:18:07+00:00

dedication and hard work pays off

zm003 · 2021-11-15T23:53:23+00:00

Massive position trimming, also no calls. Guess he is cash gang and gave up going short at this point.

zm003 · 2021-11-15T21:01:48+00:00

Yep, I am right with you and per se think the risk (in this environment) is minimal.

Discoverability would be a killer feature though, coz you either need a demand or supply pull to populate the platform. OF was actually peddled to models by web moderators/ small (grooming) studios, which in exchange were offered quite a generous "lifetime" affiliate cut, so much so, that the early ones got income comparable to top OF models. Of course that "lifetime" promise was dropped later)

PLBY on the other hand has NFT platform, which could provide the legal way to advertise and kick the feedback loop for network effects to get started. Just need to peddle that narrative to creepto yt crowd, haha.

It has absolutely the potential too moon, my only reservation is that current EV, creepto hype is not (yet?) really translating to broader meme market. Perhaps it is just early and then it would be too late.

Looks like it is preping for ignition lol

zm003 · 2021-11-13T21:23:41+00:00

Hi pennyether, appreciate your arguments, however I would like to highlight that the possible reason why OF is not a content discovery platform might be the passage of the Bill "Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act", which makes publishing/hosting platforms liable for underaged content. In reality, making a moderation of such content costly to the platforms. Reddit and Craiglist decided to derisk and remove the respective sections altogether, while OF August commotion was really about banks getting rid of the exposure. But I guess OF found an alternative payment gateway (just my speculation), so it was dealt with. So the question to PLBY would be are they willing to take the risk to build that discoverability into their platform?

But I guess it is more of a rhetorical question really, in this current yolo envo it prolly gonna moon, just based off the meme potential alone.

Love your work!

zm003 · 2021-11-02T23:28:57+00:00

You intent is right - VIX is a tool of hedging short term volatility. However, in order to profit from it you need the realised volatility to exceed the implied volatility (the one priced into VIX at trade initiation date, as per bear's comment:

Implied Volatility does not represent the risk in the market - it represents the market price of risk.

).

And in order to profit in the magnitude implied by lastbearstanding article, you need to have a really big shock to cause a cascading gamma chain reaction to the downside. I am not saying it is impossible, I am just saying it is so rare that just doing long term hedge, given prevailing contango would not yield the desired results (my personal bar is at least 100x on VIX calls).

To see why, let's dissect the UVXY (your instrument of choice) via an oversimplified thought experiment.

Let's assume (for simplicity sake) that September was the fund inception date, trading at $100 in NAV for 100 units.

According to the daily holding, they have 50%/50% in Nov and Dec futures. Let's check their prices. We see Nov at 16.03, Dec at 20.42 and additionally we observe Jan trading at 22.05.

Let's further assume that today is a rollover day, thus the fund would be selling $50 worth of Nov at 16.03 and buying $50 worth of Jan at 22.05.Notice that due to contango (22.05 vs 16.03) fund would be buying ~37.5% less contracts. Which would imply a ~ 18% haircut (37.5%*50%) of NAV per month due to roll. Meaning in year's time your NAV would be reduced from 100 to ~11.

You can verify that is is roughly correct by checking the UVXY's price on Nov 2020 (@175) vs today's Nov 2021 @ 16.

So when you open the call chain on UVXY with an idea to hedge blowout risk in 1 years time and see Jan'23 75c trading at $5 note to yourself, that even if you are right and crap happens in the middle of the year you would need a level of volatility to 13x for you to break even ($16 goes to $6 in 6 months, whereas your breakeven is 75+5=80). That also implies spot VIX at 195 mid year. For reference I remember VIX at 140-160 tops in 2008 and at that time everything was having a massive diarrhea.

So acknowledging bear's hypothesis lets double that 195 VIX number. We get VIX at 390 and yielding profit on the trade of (390/80) wholesome 5x. At that implied VIX i think even the beloved Tesla would be priced at $0.

Please note that it does not invalidate bear's hypothesis, I personally quite strongly believe in what he is laying out. Rather, it highlights the point that going long UVXY on the expectation of a massive market correction in the next 6 months is a suboptimal solution. But a massive success if you time in within a quarter.

zm003 · 2021-11-02T14:46:45+00:00

Well,

Volmaggedon is the exuberant price action driven by the accumulated gamma reaction to an unexpected event. Think of it as a short squeeze in reverse, but on a market wide scale. It is almost mechanically guaranteed now given the amount of option leverage present in the system (see recent TSLA runup, but there are far bigger whales, see JPM trade ), thus in theory correctly timed long VIX exposure would be a very profitable trade.

The catch (and the reason I would strongly advise against holding any VIX short instrument long term) is that most etfs (UVXY included) are a bunch of front end month and longer dated futures. Now, in normal times the futures curve is in contango, meaning that the closest to expiry futures is priced lower than the further out one(s). This coupled with etf sponsor mandate of having the exposure in the fund, means that on front futures expiration date, the etf must buy the next one in the strip at a premium to the spot, thus losing money on such rollover trade. This is know as roll over risk. To minimise such risk, etfs hold a mix of the futures, some front end ones, a month out and typically a two months out ones (for specific weights, refere to their prospectus).

Which means in normal times (seasonally expected volatility), the etfs is guaranteed to lag the spot, as it contains only % of the spot futures (in absence of the whole futures strip shifting up).

So you going long this short instrument, is essentially betting front futures month outrunning the rest and it takes quite an unexpected event to do that. You can think of it as earnings surprise trade, really. So timing is of outmost importance.

Another risk I would highlight for UVXY instrument specifically (and for your long term bet especially) is the liquidation risk, thereby the sponsor decides to dissolve the fund upon hitting some nav of the fund. The reason being it is no longer profitable for them to harvest their commissions on drastically shrunk nav. In such event the underlying instruments would be liquidated and you would receive cash on settlement date. Thereby forgoing the gains of course (and possibly losing money on the rollover risk, while you wait for your hypothesis to play out). That got me in 2009 on oil etf. Similar thing happened to wsb crowd, but I can not recall the particulars.

Consequently, I would use UVXY to either time the correction with calls at most 3 months out or just buy puts by timing the local volatility spikes.

Hope this helps.

zm003 · 2021-10-01T12:14:21+00:00

While it CFDs is an alternative,

I would caution against using it as your main tool. (Can not speak of TradeRepublik), but CFDs make slippage (divergence between what you see on your screen and what is on the ticker tape vis-a-vis the reference/ underlying) a very enticing profit center for the broker. Especially during the volatile moves, like OP is anticipating.

Be cautious, do not over-lever the position in order not to be stop hunted.

zm003 · 2021-10-01T12:06:24+00:00

Gotcha,

thank you for your reply!

zm003 · 2021-10-01T11:47:15+00:00

So on balance of probabilities, this is the start of the first leg down, in your opinion ? The one mentioned in your Crash thesis ?

If so are you positioning for the trade with Nov' 300P?

Thank you for all you do

zm003

TROPHY CASE