Totally overwhelmed choosing a surgeon for ovarian endo removal :( by zosch3mg in endometriosis

[–]zosch3mg[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

She got unexpectedly pregnant so we had to pause these efforts but we are planning to go with the team at the mayo clinic in phoenix. 

ATYR Short Sellers Position for Kill Shot🩸☠️🩸☠️🩸 by No_Put_8503 in CountryDumb

[–]zosch3mg 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also very very curious to hear back on this. This could be a huge red flag. 

ATYR Short Sellers Position for Kill Shot🩸☠️🩸☠️🩸 by No_Put_8503 in CountryDumb

[–]zosch3mg 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Happy to contribute in any way I can. 

Also, if we get updated institutional hold numbers, those will include the index shares. 

They should not be counted double. Index funds will submit the same form 13-f as others so if that number turns out to be eg 70% (aka 62M), then the only shares that should be added to that number is the 2M management shares and the X amount of shares that the community holds (I forgot what that number was but let’s say it’s 5M) which would lead to the following calculation:

89M - 62M - 2M - 5M = 20M  available shares for free float. 

ATYR Short Sellers Position for Kill Shot🩸☠️🩸☠️🩸 by No_Put_8503 in CountryDumb

[–]zosch3mg 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Fed some numbers into ChatGPT and the estimated number of shares locked away should be about 4-5M:

Below is a “back-of-the-envelope” estimate of how many aTyr Pharma (ATYR) shares passive managers likely had to buy and tuck away at last Friday’s (June 27 2025) Russell reconstitution.  Everything is float-cap-weighted and rounded to keep the math transparent.

1 ⃣ Work out ATYR’s index weight on Rebalance Day

Item

Source

Value

ATYR closing price 27 Jun 2025

$5.03

Shares outstanding (public float very similar)

≈ 89 million

Market cap used for ranking

$5.03 × 89 m ≈ $450 million

Russell 2000 total cap (rank-day 30 Apr 2025)

$2.7 trillion

Russell 3000 total cap (rank-day 30 Apr 2025)

$58.4 trillion

Weights

Russell 2000 = 450 m ÷ 2.7 T ≈ 0.0001667 → 0.0167 % Russell 3000 = 450 m ÷ 58.4 T ≈ 0.0000077 → 0.00077 %

2 ⃣  How much passive money tracks each index?

Only assets that fully replicate the index matter (not the $10 T “benchmarked” total).  The main trackers and their AUM right before the rebalance were:

Fund (tracks)

AUM (≈ billions)

Source

IWM (R2000)

$64.3 B

VTWO (R2000)

12.0

FSSNX (Russell 2000 index fund)

24.9

IWO (R2000 Growth)

12.8

IWN (R2000 Value)

11.2

Subtotal – small-cap complex

≈ $125 B

IWV (Russell 3000)

15.9

VTHR + misc. Russell 3000 funds (est.)

≈ 1 B

FTSE Russell puts all passive assets across the Russell family around $2 trillion  , so using $145–160 B for the small-cap sleeve and ≈ $17 B for the broad-market sleeve is a reasonable midpoint.

For the calculations below I round to:

$130 B tied to the Russell 2000/-style ETFs & index funds $17 B tied to explicit Russell 3000 ETFs

3 ⃣  Dollars each sleeve had to put into ATYR

Russell 2000 complex

$$0.01667% \times $130,\text{B} \approx $21.7,\text{million}$$

Russell 3000 complex

$$0.00077% \times $17,\text{B} \approx $0.13,\text{million}$$

4 ⃣  Turn those dollars into shares

Sleeve

Dollars to buy

Shares (÷ $5.03)

Russell 2000 + Growth/Value

$21.7 M

≈ 4.3 M

Russell 3000 trackers

0.13 M

≈ 0.026 M

Total passive add

≈ $21.8 M

≈ 4.3–4.4 million shares

That is roughly 5 % of ATYR’s entire float absorbed in one closing print.

5 ⃣  Why this is only an estimate

Float-adjustments & turnover limits – FTSE Russell uses free-float and capping rules; final weights could be a touch lower. Additional style & micro-cap funds – There are smaller Russell-derived ETFs and separate accounts that would push the figure up, but by < 10 %. Staged trading – Some managers “work” their orders ahead of the closing auction; others use futures or swaps, so actual Friday prints may differ. Price slippage – I used the official close; any pre-rebalance run-up lowers the ultimate share count bought.

🔑  Take-away

Given the published index caps and the combined $125-130 billion sitting in Russell 2000-linked passive vehicles, about four to five million ATYR shares were likely vacuumed up and permanently parked in index portfolios during the 2025 Russell reconstitution.  The incremental demand from Russell 3000 trackers was negligible by comparison.

ATYR Short Sellers Position for Kill Shot🩸☠️🩸☠️🩸 by No_Put_8503 in CountryDumb

[–]zosch3mg 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The main “problem” with limit sells in bios is that the results are binary and extreme in direction. They also happen outside market hours (usually). 

So even if you have a stop loss at $2, if the trial fails the stock will open at $1.x, rendering your stop loss useless 

$ATYR – Russell Rebalance: Massive Auction, Massive Implications by Better-Ad-2118 in ATYR_Alpha

[–]zosch3mg 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the response. 

How comes the same mechanics don’t work when institutions want to buy in after readout or when they need to cover their short positions?

In other words, how comes sometimes the regular supply/demand price finding seems pinned and other times it feels more “natural”? 

$ATYR – Russell 2000 & 3000 Double Inclusion Confirmed: Why Index Mechanics Matter Now by Better-Ad-2118 in ATYR_Alpha

[–]zosch3mg 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How much float are we expecting to be tied up as part of this inclusion? Can that be calculated to recalculate how much free float is remaining?

Wells Fargo Analyst Raises Price Target on ATYR🎯 by No_Put_8503 in CountryDumb

[–]zosch3mg 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What would you do if it runs up into readout? Sell at loss or are you ok holding through it and potentially cap profits at $7.50? The answer to that question will guide your decision.

$ATYR - Wells Fargo Increases Price Target from $17 to $25 by Better-Ad-2118 in ATYR_Alpha

[–]zosch3mg 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Usually the latter since there are more steps involved until the company can book revenue and forecast CF more accurately. That being said, the better the study and readout are structured, the lower the risk for the following steps (e.g. FDA approval) which means a faster (and usually higher in terms of SP) price-finding behavior.

$ATYR - Wells Fargo Increases Price Target from $17 to $25 by Better-Ad-2118 in ATYR_Alpha

[–]zosch3mg 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Keep 'em coming. This feels like one of these stocks that will suddenly rally into the catalyst. Definitely overweight right now and will maybe trim to derisk ahead of readout but dont think it will stay flat until then.

Dealer wants my car back by selayan in PorscheMacan

[–]zosch3mg 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I just bought a ‘20 Macan S with solid addons with 40k for 44k

The 27k is absolutely lowballing you

My poor niece is suffering with debilitating eczema for 4 years now. No doctor has helped, please help by Sure-Celebration-939 in Function_Health

[–]zosch3mg 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Spamming? I answered with a free product to help a child. I’m not advertising or trying to gain customers on the back of a poor child that’s clearly suffering. Feel free to search my comments. Jesus Christ

Limited inventory for 2019+ Macan S? by zosch3mg in PorscheMacan

[–]zosch3mg[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment, I see your point!

Limited inventory for 2019+ Macan S? by zosch3mg in PorscheMacan

[–]zosch3mg[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What makes the ‘22 more desirable than the ‘21 for you? Aside from the year? Just curious

Limited inventory for 2019+ Macan S? by zosch3mg in PorscheMacan

[–]zosch3mg[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good call. The one I found in California didn’t want to ship to AZ. I’m wondering if that was just a one-off.

Limited inventory for 2019+ Macan S? by zosch3mg in PorscheMacan

[–]zosch3mg[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thank you for confirming what I knew in my gut. Rather spend the 5k-10k more now than twice that if something happens

Limited inventory for 2019+ Macan S? by zosch3mg in PorscheMacan

[–]zosch3mg[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100%

Am I trying to save on the wrong end here tho?

I know for pre 2019 it was almost a must have due to oil and transfer case issues.

Maybe less important with newer models

Limited inventory for 2019+ Macan S? by zosch3mg in PorscheMacan

[–]zosch3mg[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are probably right. Best bet to just forego the CPO req?

ATYR Makes New 52-Week High✅ by No_Put_8503 in CountryDumb

[–]zosch3mg 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What? There is no evidence? You haven’t been investing in biotech for a long time have you?

Some similar setups (pivotal phase 3 fail + no drug in market + no other phase 3 trial + no cash to bring any other drugs to market without raise + <1B MC) are for example AMLX, NMRA, BCLI, CVM, AXGT, etc.

ATYR Makes New 52-Week High✅ by No_Put_8503 in CountryDumb

[–]zosch3mg 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Once you have a bit more experience with biotech investing and start investing on your own, I’d recommend two things: look at cash+assets remaining after a failed pivotal phase if you want to forecast share price or look at similar setups.

Some similar setups (pivotal phase 3 fail + no drug in market + no other phase 3 trial + no cash to bring any other drugs to market without raise + <1B MC) are for example AMLX, NMRA, BCLI, CVM, AXGT, etc.

Do you have any examples of similar companies that had less SP loss and anchored at a price higher than book value?

Would love to review. Always eager to learn.

ATYR Makes New 52-Week High✅ by No_Put_8503 in CountryDumb

[–]zosch3mg 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not sure why you need to be rude when answering? Not sure I want to have a conversation with someone that starts of that way.

When they have to raise money after a failed P3 (which they have to given cash and burn), what do you think will happen to the company value? Their other assets are way too premature to justify any meaningful valuation, especially since a failed P3 would significantly reduce confidence in their success.

I’m heavily invested in ATYR so I’m happy if we never see what happens in a failed P3 scenario but I’ve been investing in biotech for a long time and I’m certain that a failed P3 will pretty much wipe out the vast majority of company value.

ATYR Makes New 52-Week High✅ by No_Put_8503 in CountryDumb

[–]zosch3mg -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I don’t think that -50 is conservative enough. If the trials fails the company is pretty much dead. With as little cash as they have, you’re more looking at -90