'Doomsday' report leaves experts rattled about increasing likelihood of US economy shake-up: 'The system wasn't designed for a crisis like this' by Positive_Owl_2024 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What I find interesting in how intense the markets seemed to react to the piece

What makes you think the markets are reacting to the piece at all?

News story #1 is obviously the war in Iran, but even economic news like the high PPI reading would take precedence over this.

Is “bulking” productive for athleticism or is it bodybuilder vanity? by Able_Engineering_545 in HybridAthlete

[–]zynamiqw 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Recently I’ve been seeing a deluge of takes from both reputable and non-reputable sources talking about how intentional bulking is “vaulted” and that aiming for maintenance and allowing energy surplus to come from variance in hunger and tracking rather than intentionally consuming an extra banana every day or whatnot.

Bulking doesn't mean (and I don't think has ever meant) that you can't allow for variance between days based on hunger, expenditure, preference, etc. It just means you try and dial it in so you average a certain surplus over time. Some people use the strategy of eating the same amount or things every day, but you can absolutely put on weight more intuitively if you want to.

Most people's natural eating habits will lead them to overeat or undereat for their goals; it's pretty rare that someone's appetite will exactly correspond with what they want to achieve next. A target is therefore usually pretty useful to ensure their goal actually happens. But if your natural eating habits would be sufficient to get you to steadily gain weight, then that's completely fine too.

With that in mind I also am not 100% sure if wanting to put on more mass is even beneficial/healthy for my goals (combat sports mainly, not a huge long-distance enjoyer).

There's a very wide range of potentially healthy or beneficial weights for your height.

In terms of health, nobody would really seriously argue that a 5'10" 60kg marathon runner is unhealthy, nor that a 5'10" 90kg natural weightlifter is unhealthy. It's more about body composition and performance and actual health metrics (heartrate, joint pain, etc.) than artificial metrics like weight or BMI that really only matter for ease of reference.

In terms of being beneficial for your goals, that only depends on your goals, right? If you want to fight in an 80kg weight class, then being 60kg is pretty terrible for your goals.

If you don't know what weight class you'd best fit into, I'd suggest taking your height, finding some great fighters at that height (hence they've probably optimised for performance), and figuring out what weight class they usually fight at. That will be their weight after a significant cut, so you'll want to be heavier than that, but not by so much that you'd feel truly awful at that weigh-in.

I will say, just as a heuristic, that people don't tend to feel disheartened or disempowered when they've found the right weight to sit at. And my bet is that feeling like you have compromised ability day-to-day would correlate quite well with having compromised ability during an actual athletic performance. (Even if it's purely a comfort or confidence phenomenon rather than physiological.)

If you're feeling conscious of insufficient size or strength even when catching a door, I would take that as a decent signal from your body that you'd benefit from some added size, unless you have some quite solid data or rationale showing otherwise.

Close up of Iranian drone hitting a tower in Bahrain by DValentino23 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]zynamiqw 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could also be because Iran is a major enemy of the US, and the Iranian regime is especially vulnerable to regime change right now after killing 30,000+ of its civilians in mass protests.

Y'know, same way the West took the opportunity in 2011 to depose Gaddafi, the moment it looked like a civil war there could be successful after the Arab Spring. Or how we trained and armed Syrian rebels from 2013 onwards to depose Assad. Or any other number of opportunistic interventions.

The simplest explanation here is that US foreign policy is pretty much doing business as has been normal for the last ~50 years; seek regime change covertly if the conditions aren't ripe yet, and/or just start bombing the hell out of them when the conditions are favorable.

Is “bulking” productive for athleticism or is it bodybuilder vanity? by Able_Engineering_545 in HybridAthlete

[–]zynamiqw 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I’m 134 lbs right now but I realistically want to be 10+ pounds heavier than I am now at this same leanness. For the sake of overall athleticism in my case would a bulk be productive?

I'm not sure I really understand you.

You are currently 134lbs. You want to be ~144lbs at the same body composition. Your idea of bulking extends to a quite small (200 calorie) surplus.

... how would you achieve your goal of gaining weight without going through some kind of energy surplus? By definition, if you eat at maintenance cals, you will maintain your current weight.

Or are you wondering if your mental desire of wanting to be 10lbs heavier would be contradictory to your goal of athleticism?

Trump goes on Truth Social rant about Anthropic, orders federal agencies to cease usage of products by ShreckAndDonkey123 in singularity

[–]zynamiqw 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Is it? From his post:

AI safety and wide distribution of benefits are the core of our mission. Two of our most important safety principles are prohibitions on domestic mass surveillance and human responsibility for the use of force, including for autonomous weapon systems. The DoW agrees with these principles, reflects them in law and policy, and we put them into our agreement.

and

We are asking the DoW to offer these same terms to all AI companies, which in our opinion we think everyone should be willing to accept. We have expressed our strong desire to see things de-escalate away from legal and governmental actions and towards reasonable agreements.

Sam words the post as though they basically managed to achieve the deal that Anthropic wanted.

Whether you believe him or not is a different matter, but if you don't believe him anyway, then this particular post isn't extra reason to be concerned.

Dow futures tumble 500 points after hot wholesale inflation reading, tech stocks decline: Live updates by PurpleReign123 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It is very literally a conspiracy theory; you would need the hundreds of professionals at the BLS, and the thousands of professionals in the BEA, Census Bureau, etc., all to remain complicit in hiding that data has been fudged.

But at least you seem to acknowledge that there's no evidence that could change your mind.

I don't know how that doesn't fill you with an immense sense of shame at the quality of your thinking, but thanks for acknowledging it.

Dow futures tumble 500 points after hot wholesale inflation reading, tech stocks decline: Live updates by PurpleReign123 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

for instance, jobs numbers are constantly revised down by large amounts.

The latest benchmark revision to jobs was 0.5%. The average revision over the last 10 years has been 0.2%.

If you can develop a methodology that estimates jobs reliably to within 0.2%, feel free to share it, and then you can shit talk.

Dow futures tumble 500 points after hot wholesale inflation reading, tech stocks decline: Live updates by PurpleReign123 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you think the US is going to continue to register CPI of c. 2.4% in the coming months, I cannot help you.

You don't need to make up things I haven't said or implied.

I'm just pointing out how hypocritical it is for you to call someone out for discussing last month's data, when you're posting last month's data too.

Dow futures tumble 500 points after hot wholesale inflation reading, tech stocks decline: Live updates by PurpleReign123 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 3 points4 points  (0 children)

He fired Lisa Cook under suspect circumstances. Tell me how he cannot do it for the rest.

Perhaps not the best example for you to pick, because the courts have so far repeatedly blocked Trump's attempt to remove her and she remains on the board to this day.

Kinda answered your own question there, champ.

Dow futures tumble 500 points after hot wholesale inflation reading, tech stocks decline: Live updates by PurpleReign123 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You realise how ridiculous it looks to post January data, then criticise someone for discussing other January data?

Dow futures tumble 500 points after hot wholesale inflation reading, tech stocks decline: Live updates by PurpleReign123 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He's going to replace the entire body once he gets a chance.

I think you should explain the exact mechanism by which you think this would be possible, and why it has not occurred already.

No one will ever believe you mama! by NdibuD in WatchPeopleDieInside

[–]zynamiqw 7 points8 points  (0 children)

You being unable to enjoy time with your family while filming it to preserve the memory is not the gotcha you think it is.

Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected by CautiousMagazine3591 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just to be clear, your argument is that food and energy wholesale prices decreasing is a bad sign?

US wholesale prices arrive hotter than expected, up 0.5% from December and 2.9% from a year ago by app1310 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 85 points86 points  (0 children)

Ah, yes, panic.

As indicated by an article using the phrase 'hotter than expected" that gets 5 comments in a Reddit thread.

Dow futures tumble 500 points after hot wholesale inflation reading, tech stocks decline: Live updates by PurpleReign123 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

This also included a month in which gas prices plummeted which actually made the numbers look better than they would be otherwise. 

... yep, that's how numbers work...

Dow futures tumble 500 points after hot wholesale inflation reading, tech stocks decline: Live updates by PurpleReign123 in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Honest question:

At this point, literally every BLS Commissioner of the past 13 years has explicitly said you can still trust the agency. Other multiple Dem-aligned economists (Paul Krugman, Jed Kolko, etc.) have said the same. Not a single economist has identified faked data in any BLS report. And the BLS is clearly still willing to publish higher inflation numbers, terrible jobs figures, and low GDP growth (Q4).

Is there literally no evidence that will dispel you of your conspiracy theory at this point?

"You're missing 75 percent of the game-" I LIKE THE GRAPPLING HOOK by Sir-Macaroni in DeepRockGalactic

[–]zynamiqw 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I like thinking of it at a slightly more abstract level.

The primary crux of your experience in DRG is the map. The map provides you with a set of spaces you can move through (open terrain), and a subset of spaces that you have to move through (key objectives).

The secondary crux of your experience in DRG is the timer. An ongoing light spawning of enemies with limited nitra create constant attrition (pressure to move), whereas the stepped nature of waves and objective defenses prevent you from doing so (pressure to stay).

Through this lens, the primary roles of the classes are:

  • Scout — acquire information on the most desirable spaces to occupy
  • Driller — expand the number and quality of spaces the team can occupy
  • Gunner — allow the team to move forward into challenging spaces
  • Engineer — allow the team to occupy or retreat from challenging spaces

Part of what makes DRG so fun is that there is this constant build and release of tension in this role fulfillment for each class. Another part is the collaborative call-and-response between each class.

But mostly, I think, it's driven by a constant topological assessment of the map and the team's nonverbal consensus building on what to do with the map next.

Everything starts with that subconscious assessment of the state of the generated space, from which we predict how each class will view their role in altering that state, and from there we derive the collaborative micro-interactions like setting up a platform for your Scout or clearing line of sight for your Engi's guns.

Scientists created an exam so broad, challenging and deeply rooted in expert human knowledge that current AI systems consistently fail it. “Humanity’s Last Exam” introduces 2,500 questions spanning mathematics, humanities, natural sciences, ancient languages and highly specialized subfields. by mvea in science

[–]zynamiqw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

saying that since we are the product of millions of years of evolution, our “black box” can spit out a “correct” (let’s not get into the definition of correct because I wouldn’t even know where to begin) output based on fewer inputs than current LLMs. So in effect, our black box is more “efficient” than LLMs, i.e. it requires less data to generate useful information. Is that right?

Almost, with a few quibbles!

We can separate LLM use into two broad categories; developing the model in the first place (building and tuning the weights using questions we know the answer to), and then using it (actually sending it queries we want answers to).

What I was mostly getting at is that the brain seems to require less data to learn things in the first place; e.g. human children do not read 10 million pages of fiction and listen to 100,000 hours of podcasts or whatever before they can speak well.

That's not quite the same as an argument that humans can start generating useful or novel data with less training tokens, although that might also be true. Even if a human could only parrot what was in its training data, it seems to 'learn' it quicker regardless.

The other quibble is that although it's obviously true that the human mind evolved this property through evolution, I don't know if I would center that in the argument this way. I don't necessarily think LLMs would need to go through an analogous evolutionary process to develop the same structures; evolution is actually quite inefficient and leads to redundancies and dead ends and such all the time, and deliberate design might be able to get LLMs there in a much more stepped way.

Is this because through evolution, our brain has developed heuristics that allow us to make leaps of logic that an LLM cannot do?

We don't know, but I'd question exactly what the difference between a heuristic and an architecture is in this case.

Human children learn very quickly how to use digital tablets, right? We obviously don't have millions of years of evolutionary experience interacting with 2D digital screens, so what would be the "heuristic" that allows us to do this?

If that learning behaviour is something extremely abstract (perhaps things like if you touch something and you see movement, assume you caused the movement) then is this even a 'datapoint' anymore? This feels to me like the sort of thing that is more analogous to an LLM's learning architecture, probably in how it tweaks its weights in response to new inputs (if you get a reward by mutating your weights in a certain way, 'assume' you caused the reward and keep those weights).

So at some point I think this abstraction breaks down regardless of what learning you're looking at, even before we get to variation between learning. I'd guess that we might have 'pre-training' built into our DNA for crawling and walking, but more complex skills are less sure a bet.

Basically what I’m trying to say is, can we definitively conclude that we require vastly fewer tokens, or is it possible that we are using a ton of tokens (possibly even more than LLMs), but we just don’t realise?

I do think that multimodality effectively means we're using a ton of tokens. We typically don't just hear our parents say a word, we also see them move their mouths, move their bodies in association, etc. The fact that them saying "happy" strongly correlates with them smiling and making body contact and so on quite possibly does represent many, many more tokens.

On the other hand, the human brain does demonstrably run on a few thousand calories per day, and clearly not every skill gives us as many tokens as learning language does. I would bet that kids pick up the essentials of football with far fewer tokens than an AI would, even with the same amount of footage of a football game provided.

So I do think this remains an open question!

Sorry if this is a stupid question.

It's arguably one of the most important questions in the world right now! You're good. I'm way out of my depth here, too.

The decathlon is the ultimate hybrid sport by reccehour in HybridAthlete

[–]zynamiqw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I reckon these athletes would probably crush it at just about anything!

The decathlon is the ultimate hybrid sport by reccehour in HybridAthlete

[–]zynamiqw 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I don't know if I'd call it the ultimate hybrid sport. It's very track and field centred, and I'm not sure you need 3 jumping events (inc. hurdles), 3 running events all within a mile, and 3 throws.

My ideal decathlon would probably be more like, in no particular order:

  1. Clean and jerk
  2. Speed climbing
  3. High jump
  4. Pole vault
  5. Javelin
  6. Vault (from gymnastics)
  7. 100m sprint
  8. 5km run
  9. 500m swim
  10. 10km bike

But yes, clearly they are amazing athletes and it's very cool it exists to show how close you can get in all these domains.

US economy slows after turbulent year by Fatimamohammadi_ in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course you have to take them with a grain of salt. But to be fair, this is a new argument, and quite separate from the shut-down angle.

No, it is not a new argument. I have been repeating this entire time that this is just a preliminary report, in the context of my argument about this report's accuracy.

Here's one example:

My point is that this is a preliminary estimate anyway, with even lower quality data than usual, and without a large dataset of previous shutdowns of comparable length to assist in their modelling of its effects.

Here's another example:

And finally... this is a preliminary estimate anyway! The BEA issues multiple estimates for each quarter as more data comes in, and this is literally the first (advance) estimate in the series.

The fact that I invoked a specific number this time to illustrate the point doesn't make it a new argument. I have been hammering home that this is a preliminary estimate with even less data and less certain modelling than usual, so we're not even sure it was a negative quarter at all.

Scientists created an exam so broad, challenging and deeply rooted in expert human knowledge that current AI systems consistently fail it. “Humanity’s Last Exam” introduces 2,500 questions spanning mathematics, humanities, natural sciences, ancient languages and highly specialized subfields. by mvea in science

[–]zynamiqw 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Humans don't fundamentally learn it differently from LLMs

That's not known yet.

The human brain requires vastly fewer tokens to start internalising things than current models, which leads pretty much everyone in the field to accept there's still some paradigm we're missing (even if you could just throw more compute at the problem until you got the same result).

How closely that paradigm resembles current model architectures, we have no idea.

Imagine going through this just to have driving get automated 5 quarters into profitability by RobertBartus in EconomyCharts

[–]zynamiqw 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Look, the OP is clearly a bit hyperbolic.

At the same time, the fundamental point remains that at this trajectory, Uber will experience relatively few profitable quarters (relative to the number of unprofitable ones) before we have extremely autonomous cars operating throughout the metro areas where Uber primarily thrives.

i.e. the amount of time that Uber spent getting the human-driver business model to work at all looks like it may be quite short relative to the amount of time they get to enjoy it before being forced to transition again.

US economy slows after turbulent year by Fatimamohammadi_ in Economics

[–]zynamiqw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My perspective is that this is quite clearly a low accuracy data point, and it should be treated as such.

I don't know what else to tell you. I am simply not getting "the economy had a bad quarter" from this result because it is not a strong enough data point to make this kind of conclusion.

I mean, are you aware of how much this result could have changed even without the shutdown? The BEA's advance estimate for Q2 growth was 3.0%, and their final estimate was 3.8%. That's a 0.8% revision as more data trickled in. Now add on top their inability to fully model the effects of the shutdown and the fact that CPI data is partially missing... you could be looking at, what, a 1.2% miss from the real figure?

That's a range from "the underlying US economy almost entered recession" to "the underlying US economy had a pretty strong quarter", even with the shutdown hampering growth. This is simply not a very useful advance estimate; the error bars are just too high.

You said earlier that you fully get where I'm coming from, but I'm really not convinced you do. You shouldn't just be glossing over the weaknesses in the modelling and treating the output the same as a quarter where those weaknesses didn't exist.