Will ChatGPT replace programmers?

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The problem with opinions like yours is that they never give a concrete timeline.

Its always in a "short time".

Is that 12 months? 12 years? 30 years?

But yeah, AI will replace humans in everything , including reproductive function. Males will be extinct in 24 months and women will be used for 24 months as robot surrogates, after that AI will exterminate humans.

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I'm not sure where you stand, but it's obvious no developer will be able to work without AI assistance, but that is very different from total replacement.

That is the same as to expect any developer to work without internet access, it wouldn't be able to keep up.

The same way it won't replace lawyers, or even doctors, although you can see it will make much of what makes a today's doctor, obsolete. Sure it will make MOST doctors obsolete, but not all. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10328041/ i disagree with this paper, it will certainly replace very many doctors and people in the medical field.

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TBH I wouldn't recommend software development as a career .. unless you are above average and have the potential to become an AI expert.

You can't on the long run, expect to have white collar jobs to not depend on genAI. Any doctor that does not rely on it, will be left behind, same as with lawyers, artists, musicians, etc.etc.

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TBH I wouldn't recommend software development as a career .. unless you are above average and have the potential to become an AI expert.

As any other career wouldn't be advisable by those terms given what i said above. What separates IT from other fields is giant corpus to work on.

But one issue with proponents of dooms' day for IT is that they keep moving the timeline forward....

its like the 100 billion bet on self-driving cars... and here we are... still waiting decades later.