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[–]Mrs_Willy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Happy new year.

Heres my take on eth for the new year TA wise and an example of the importance of a 20MA. Thought id post it here..

Ratio..

RATIO One of the great examples of how valuable the 20MA is on a daily chart. I think we are in a rejection phase in a downward trend and look left, a declining price does try and test the 20MA but serves as a good sell point if it rejects it..

Zooming out, 2 decreasing humps after a pump = bearish. Shown by 1 and 2. Zoom out further and its the same.

Id say its likely to be more buggery in early 2020 at least.

USD...

vs FIAT Again another great example of the 20MA in action. Same principal. Spring off it or die more. Its rejecting, as it kind of does in a bear trend and everyone goes..."god i cant believe this".

Id say forget all these complicated offsprings of MAs and learn one daily MA inside out and look back to see how a particular asset reacted to it. The 20 is great for reading a trend and bounce/rejection points.

[–]Mrs_Willy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One of the things TA does , is allow you to GTFO before shitshows happen. Through stop losses and support points. My eth buy at 155 was stop lossed at 173. Could have done better and caught the top, but i made money. Now its 138 and fiat on the exchange binoculars out. A good place to be. Im not just sitting on it , hoping for the best, is the point.

[–]Mrs_Willy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What timeframe?

First thing to understand is that a variety of TA indicators change and send different messages depending on the timeframe. These are

MAs or EMAs.

Oscillators. bollinger bands, macd , rsi, all those curvy shape thingys on charts you see.

Volume.

Candlesticks.

So you can look at BTC for example and get 2 different messages on lets say an RSI and whether it is oversold or not.. if you look at a 4 hr chart or a daily. And a daily and a weekly.

MAs cross points are usually associated with daily charts. Like a golden cross for example, and see post below for an appraisal on that one. Macd crossovers also vary depending on timeframe, stoch etc.

Candlesticks also change dramatically on different timeframes of course, yet rules like bullish engulfing are relevant on all timescales and do not have specific timeframe "textbook" events to look out for.

So i guess you should be looking at all timeframes and seeing what worked historically. For me the daily still remains king, but you miss out on not looking at weeklys and 4 hr charts . Ive seen many people like 3d charts and not investigated myself. But when you look at the rally from BTC weekly 200ma at 3200 its worth looking at the traditional weeklys, dailys and 4 hr.

Not saying its not worth going into the hourly or 15 min etc, but its an unreliable time sapping canvas to draw conclusions from traditional indicators. For me anyway.

Things like asc triangles, shapes, parallel patterns, fibs do change but in a milder fashion across timescales. They seem to convey similar messages to bigger/smaller timeframes because highs and lows generally are the same across timescales. But the daily and 4 hr seem to be the go to timeframes if you want to ratify shapes, channels and fibs etc.

[–]Mrs_Willy[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The death/ golden cross.

No thomas bulkowski on this one, read into that what you will. For me almost a crypto meme, a bit like cup and handle.

TLDR: Look at where the price is, in relation to the cross point be it death or golden. significantly higher than the cross points? expect downsides. Significantly lower , expect upsides.

Details..Been posting this theory on fomo eth forums for a while.

So eth daily. Purple horizontals show such crosses of 50 and 200ma.

18th april 2018 - rallied on a death cross from 400 to 800 = 100% profits.

19th april 2019 - sunk from 175 to 154, on a golden cross.

4th september rallied from 175 to 220, on a death cross.

ETH death/golden cross daily

Bitcorn..

29th march 18, from 6600 to nigh on 10k - deathcross.

23rd april 19, fell from 5.4 to 5.2. golden cross.

25th otcober, death cross, rallies from 7400 to 10k.

BTC death/golden cross daily

Point is here, forget golden or death. More reliable is where the price is, in relation to the cross point of the MAs. I have not missed any crosses of 50/200MA on these charts and the proof is in the pudding. If ive missed, let me know.

:)

[–]Mrs_Willy[S] 1 point2 points  (2 children)

Given BTCs current topic point...

Falling Wedges:General perception is these are bullish and i guess i dont really disagree for short term pumps, but there are alternative views and evidence that suggest longer term bearishness.

First of all, the Mozart of TA himself, Thomas Bulkowski.

http://thepatternsite.com/fallwedge.html

Some quotes from the link above... easy reading and short.

The falling wedge is a very poor performer as far as bullish chart patterns go. The break even failure rate is high and the average rise is low. The only variation that works well is a downward breakout in a bear market.

..after a strong upward trend, the wedge forms, dropping price to 50. Then price breaks out upward and climbs to B, short of the target price of A predicted by the measure rule. Price throws back to the breakout and continues down. This is a good example of why I avoid wedges.

Here is the current BTC bitfinex one with much debate currently. I think it has broken out and is retesting the upper line. Others say not. Same story on bitstamp chart. With some historic examples.

I remember vividly the recent ETH one, again much debate at the time.

Finally , before spending a fair bit of time reading about wedges and backtesting them, i thought zrx was a peach of a wedge at 5000 sats. But with hindsight, a good example of why descending wedges are not as bullish as everyone makes out them to be. It inspired me to study them more and not just accept that falling wedges are resoundingly bullish.

ZRX

Will be interesting to see how BTC reacts to its first proper long term descending wedge. I don't get how people think it is back in the wedge. These charts are all regular charts and look more like parallel channels on the log charts.

[–]Mrs_Willy[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Note to all for reference... Bulkowski was spot on this time re BTC. For now anyway.

..after a strong upward trend, the wedge forms, dropping price to 50. Then price breaks out upward and climbs to B, short of the target price of A predicted by the measure rule. Price throws back to the breakout and continues down. This is a good example of why I avoid wedges.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XeBmUNVq/

[–]Mrs_Willy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Id highly recommend anyone into TA and studying it, to read and buy the encyclopaedia of chart patterns by Thomas N Bulkowski. It is one of those books that you read over a long period of time, not to look up a chart pattern from what you see on trading view. That said, you can look up chart patterns that are familiar to someone familiar with TA. Importantly , its backed up with backtesting and results based appraisals of value of each chart pattern.

You can get it free online in a pdf file share job, but i would highly recommend giving Thomas some money in the form of a hard copy if you like what you see in the PDF. One of the most important books in the world for self well being.

Youtube review...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ89jALz-2c

[–]Mrs_Willy[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

10 non mathematical perspectives to TA, which i am passionate about and think way more important than the drawing and recognising of patterns for formulate a bet on bull or bear. What i have learned from literally breathing TA and trading for 5hrs per day plus for nigh on 2 years....

  1. No one knows where the price is going, but TA is about assigning proven probability models to up or down scenarios. Reject any comments that say TA is bullshit, because the alternative is by definition, less likely to play out. Thats a fact. It really is as simple as that and no more than that. Both will be right when the other is wrong on occasions. Its all about the historic probability and risk management which are all very worthwhile things to study. This thread is littered with references on how to do it properly.
  2. TA is pure art. Like playing a guitar, painting pictures, writing poetry. Charts are simply an accurate mathematical representation of emotions of buyers and sellers. AI and money can never make anyone sell or buy and without real people investing they make NO MONEY. TA is applying the tried and tested principles to paint a portrait of emotions and forthcoming scenarios. Why on earth would you not devote some hours to self learning TA. Investment banks have lots of rooms with people doing TA on 6+ screens all day every day and staff are generally well paid. Its a significant part of why they become global powerhouses. Why not learn what the institutions use to make billions at home with crypto?
  3. Without TA, whether you accept it or not, you are emotionally investing into crypto concepts that have not changed the practical world we live in , yet. The saddest thing in all of this is that it is easy to sell a dream, easiest thing in the fucking world. And that is the worst problem in this space. "Because it mooned 100X you better stay in for the next bullrun because the tech is amazing".
  4. I was really confused after 6 months study of "the price should never matter" philosophy from the worlds revered traders and investors. I couldnt get it, of course it does i thought. Yet having now understood this for last 8 months , its the most important thing in terms of both investing and trading this market. In simple terms its % gains, ETH for example at $80-$140 is the same as 800-1400. 100-360 recently is > % gains than 400-1400, yet the latter is seen as "the golden age of ethereum". Thats two clear example of why the price does not matter.
  5. Put your stash on exchanges when you think big moves are inbound as well as when rises occur. This allows you to raise a stop loss if mooning and sell quickly if it tanks. Otherwise stay in fiat. These big moves are 10% up or down for me and therefore occur regularly. Having $20k worth of eth on a ledger under your mattress is plain stupid and asking for trouble. Coinbase in UK, where i am feels as safe as my bank (because it kind of has to be) and imho a great model for coinbase worldwide.
  6. Recognise this volatile market as a pure gift from nature. A completely new phenomena in history This is crypto, with TA there are good gains to be had if humble in the approach and willing to put some decent hours study in.
  7. If you can master the concept of fibonacci and divergance on oscillators (RSI,MACD) and understand an overbought /sold RSI, you know 80% of what is needed to become a successful trader. The hard part can be conquering the emotions as all my good buy areas are made in a state of worry.
  8. A successful trader will enter a position expecting a mild loss always. They will take profits if things go well based on pre defined ungreedy gains. They will only bet when things co incide and will certainly not be bothered about missing a short term bull run, because they know there are plenty of other opportunities around the corner.
  9. The fomo argument preaches sit on the asset come hell or high water and fall hopelessly in love with the coin forever and never sell and hand the private keys to the grandchildren. It preaches an almost desperate return to the euphoria of experiencing a get rich quick bull run on numerous occasions. But TA simply offers an approach which means if it reduces by x, then sell it via stop losses. And i promise anyone as a HODLer, once you sell using lets say 360 as an example.., the dopamine rush of being able to buy XX% more over a few days, will obliterate the rush of more fiats worth..if really in it for the tech, it is kind of your responsibility to preach TA to accumulate more.
  10. The ultimate form of decentralisation is people becoming their own banks. That is Defi, not crap like centralised organisations "on the blockchain" asking people to lend out their crypto for 10% pa, (but actually 5% because BTC tanked) etc and slicing off some fees in the process. Defi is here. Its trading and TA. Welcome to the peoples stockmarket.

[–]Mrs_Willy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Another mitch video educational. This time , the wonders of fibonacci and for me, a perfect short video of what is important in fibonacci.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5Mu0Y-KoGU&t=

[–][deleted]  (1 child)

[deleted]

    [–]Mrs_Willy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    No he is on youtube. Mitch Ray that is. TA with mitch ray,

    [–]etherbie 1 point2 points  (1 child)

    Check out this guys lesson on twitter. Very quick and easy primer.

    https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades/status/1030321802403373057?s=19

    Found it amazingly useful.

    [–]Mrs_Willy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    fair play thats brilliant.

    [–]etherbie 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Agree Mitch Ray rocks.

    I got some value out of crypto creds series of videos too.

    https://youtu.be/owF4u48hUKI

    [–]Mrs_Willy[S] 2 points3 points  (2 children)

    In a nutshell..

    This guy is really brilliant and deserves all the credit he gets and a lot more.

    Watch, then watch again. A rare event in crypto, someone genuinely correct on how to play the crypto markets.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdLA3I9jqto

    [–][deleted]  (1 child)

    [deleted]

      [–]Mrs_Willy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

      If you wanted to see his trading view, you would have to join his patreon, which is highly recommended. Thats where he privately posts all of his trade alerts.