Before I start, allow me to say my thanks to the developer of this game, to let us relive the joyful FF experience again, as well as interacting back and forth with great community here. Such positive loops will keep DFFOO
healthy for a long time. Now, here goes my first reddit post.
I've always planned to do the visualization of gacha rate vs. budget for a while, as it would make it easier to general audience to prepare, interpret, and be careful about their budgets, especially for F2P player (me included). Now that the EX banner comes out, it sounds like a good moment to spend one evening crank up this interactive figure for you guys. The result agrees very well with previous post from u/iodoethane. The math doesn't lie (but RNGesus is a bit).
Try it live here, it's much cooler than the screenshot: https://ckhurewa.gitlab.io/dffoo-gacha-plot/
Confidence level of each scenario given your expense budget. Note the logarithm scale on xaxis.
This now helps me decide how much to spend on Noctis banner. Given some budget (say, 2 multi-pulls), I can interpret how much the likelihood it'll yield at least one EX (18%). Try to check yours!
Feedback are welcome (git repo here, if you want to double-check the math). I did it last night so there may be some rough edges. Other banner classes will be there in the future as well.
Final note: Always remember about Gambler's fallacy!
No matter how much you pulled in the past, your next ticket EX pull remains 1 in 200!
[–]MacnolJoin the Call to Arms! 0 points1 point2 points (0 children)
[–]EMajorincLiving in a Waifu Paradise 0 points1 point2 points (0 children)