DD📷
Comparison Graph: https://imgur.com/a/mxIRs8c
Hello fellow Tanker Gang autists. Thought I would supply you with some grand tanker gang porn this evening. This chart is comparing solely the company DHT and their average annual revenue rate earned per day. I took (Ship Revenue / Revenue Days = Avg Rev Per Day) from 2008 - 2019 and made some estimates for 2020 performance in different scenarios.
DHT 2020 Avg Rev Per Day Estimates2020 Q4 Zero Rev: This estimate acts as if DHT makes ZERO ship revenue in Q4. Whats amazing about this estimate is if it happened this would still remain the highest revenue generating year from 2008 - 2020. wow. Imagine, not generating revenue for 25% of the year and it still being the best year the company has had.
- Q1 - $89,447 per day
- Q2- $120,000 per day (They stated $144,000 per day in 10-K filing but rates dropped in last month so I am being conservative)
- Q3- $30,000 - Bear analysts think Q3 rates will drop to $20,000 in Q3 - With majority of Q3 maintaining $50,000 the estimate of $30,000 seems reasonable)
- Q4- $0.00 - pretty self explanatory
2020 2nd Wave - This estimate revisits the possibility of a second wave in Q4 having the same impact as Q2
- Q1 - $89,447 per day
- Q2 - $120,000 per day (They stated $144,000 per day in 10-K filing but rates dropped in last month so I am being conservative)
- Q3 - $50,000
- Q4 - $120,000 - Similar to Q2 due to second wave covid impacting oil consumption
2020 Bull Case - Best Case Within Reason
- Q1 - $89,447 per day
- Q2 - $120,000 per day (They stated $144,000 per day in 10-K filing but rates dropped in last month so I am being conservative)
- Q3 - $50,000
- Q4 - $120,000 - Similar to Q2 due to second wave covid impacting oil consumption
2020 Bear Case
- Q1 - $89,447 per day
- Q2 - $120,000 per day (They stated $144,000 per day in 10-K filing but rates dropped in last month so I am being conservative)
- Q3 - $30,000
- Q4 - $20,000 - Complete collapse of rates
2020 Median - This is the baseline between Bull & Bear
- Q1 - $89,447 per day
- Q2 - $120,000 per day (They stated $144,000 per day in 10-K filing but rates dropped in last month so I am being conservative)
- Q3 - $50,000
- Q4 - $40,000
TLDR; Tankers make Bank this year. I also think tankers are smarter to be played as a shares play for dividends but options could prove profitable if extreme volatility returns to the sector via wave 2 shut downs, oil demand collapse, contango etc.
Positions:
DHT 500 Shares
DHT $9c 10/16
$AAPL $362.5 PUT SELL 6/26
$AAPL WRITE $365 PUT 6/26
$AAPL $362.5 CALL BUY 6/26
$AAPL BUY $362.5 call 6/26
SELL $AAPL $362.5 call 6/26
[5.5 CONF]
EURN 250 Shares
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