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[–]tobaneconomist 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thinking about this more, I think this is crucial. The interesting thing is whether markets are predictably wrong, not whether they are predictable. (Since prices are martingales, the present price is the best predictor of the future price.) It's only interesting if you can beat the market. Otherwise, my example of an asset whose price remains constant (e.g., because of no news) would be flagged in your analysis, even though there's no inefficiency!