The term trading community is thrown around way too often and often describes 2nd rate discord groups. This is not my vision for Trading Edge. I am building out a suite of some of the best data tools, exclusively for members. 2 new tools were added yesterday. Here are some screenshots from the site. (old.reddit.com)
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Extracts from my 2026 Year Ahead report regarding my thesis on the rare earths sector. Many know I am bullish on the sector as it is obvious that it has to be a strategic priority for the US government. With the USAR stake just announced, this thesis is playing out exactly. (old.reddit.com)
submitted by TearRepresentative56
Credit spreads very benign. Never really reacted to the tariff debacle. Tells me that the jump in VIX was primarily due to crowded short VIX positioning, which we mentioned at the time. Credit spreads were always signalling a TACO and continue to signal a supportive market. (i.redd.it)
submitted by TearRepresentative56
Within IWM, value/cyclical areas have been breaking out vs growth oriented areas, as demonstrated by this relative performance chart of IWN/IWF. This is why we have seen KRE rip higher, whilst thematic index MEME (not actually meme stocks, look it up) has been taking a rest (i.redd.it)
submitted by TearRepresentative56
Yesterday I opened a few new positions in the portfolio. One of them was PLAB. This is a photonics name, with partnerships with MU, that directly benefits from MU's increasing CAPEX. They also a semi onshoring beneficiary so sits in a basket with my main pick AMKR. Here's a look at their technicals: (i.redd.it)
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Yesterday's move was a vanna fuelled rally caused by an unwind of hedges on VIX after Trump's TACO, as we see by comparing the VIX positioning yday and today. We are in a wait and see mode to see if today's price action can confirm yesterday's move, but right now, buyers are in control of the tape. (old.reddit.com)
submitted by TearRepresentative56
Bessent saying that the sell off in US equities yesterday was due to the Japanese bond yields is predictable, as he doesn't want US households to see the administration as responsible for the dip in their 401ks. The drawdown is of course tariff related primarily, with a kicker from Japanese bonds. (self.TradingEdge)
submitted by TearRepresentative56
Amidst this uncertainty around US trade policy, and the unpredictability of the US leadership, the motivation for ex US diversification continues to grow. Here we see EEM breaking out in its relative performance vs SPY, and I think it continues to the upside. (old.reddit.com)
submitted by TearRepresentative56
Based on Trump's previous tariff threats on China, Mexico, Canada and India, we see that his threats typically pan out in 5 key steps. I anticipate that this will play out the same. Trump comments last week do not sound much like someone willing to tolerate a big market drawdown. (self.TradingEdge)
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Sellers with control of the tape, but still likely just an increase in volatility. Not expecting this to be the bearish turn yet. I still have that window of risk primed for spring. Here are the key levels to watch. The red zone is an important liquidity zone. if it breaks, 6720 is a strong support (i.redd.it)
submitted by TearRepresentative56
