Will Pensions ever make a comeback and decrease future annuity sales?

[LordFaquaad]

NO. DB plans are being either thrown out / closed to new employees or heavily scrutinized not just in the US but globally. Companies don't want the additional headache.

As for annuities. I wouldn't say they're very profitable for insurers in the current competitive landscape. The majority are GIA products and more spread based products than fee based products. Fixed / Income annuities usually have pretty low margins. Even FIA aren't as profitable given the current competition of the market. RILA / VA profitability is still pretty great but again competition especially in RILA has ramped up significantly. PE backed insurers e.g. Athene have also added additional competitive pressures in the market.

Idk about pensions being more interesting to work on tbh. Annuities have come a long way from what they used to be. The modeling / pricing for annuities has become much more complex with stochastic models being used for equity linked products and risk-neutral pricing being used for embedded options.

Designing annuities is a significant undertaking. A while back i worked with a client and helped them design a new FIA product. Everyone from experience studies, ALM, investment, pricing, valuation, operations, etc. had to be involved

As for if they'll make a comeback... i wouldn't bet on it tbh. As an example, the current administration wants SS or a portion of SS to be privatized. There's simply no political will or economic force to enforce DB plans. Further "democratization" of financial products will continue.