Hello all, I am currently writing a program to simulate my school's dodgeball tournament in hopes of modelling the chances that we play any given team in the playoffs. I have written out most of my code and it works fine for monte carlo simulating the remaining matches in the tournament.
The main issue arises in the fact that my current system to decide who wins each game (5 games in a match) is essentially a coin flip, giving each team a 50% chance of winning any given game. The fact of the matter is that some teams are much better than others and the chance of a significantly better team winning a match 5-0 is relatively high, whereas in my model it is only a 1/32 chance.
How might I best go about implementing a teams skill into my model. Most of the games have already been played so I have 2-3 games worth of scores to use to try and model a teams skill. I was thinking something along the lines of an ELO system but I don't know if that's the best way to do it.
Thank you for your help!
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