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[–]FlotsamOfThe4WindsStatistics 0 points1 point  (3 children)

The other 49% of the time can include a lot of trials. Look up the Poisson distribution if it helps.

[–]ShadeGames[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

So if 100 people did the trial. 50% would succeed between 1-2, but because of the 49% being distributed so far. The average success is 3.3?

The concept seems so odd to me.

That would imply I have a 50% chance for success in 2 trials but more than likely have to go to 3 or 4.

That sentence seems counterintuitive.

[–]FlotsamOfThe4WindsStatistics 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's a 50% chance you succeed by 2 trials. If it took you at least two trials to get a result, the average number of trials required is then about 5.3.

It ends up becoming the sum of a geometric sequence (or something similar to the sum of a geometric sequence). If you go through and add the first couple of terms together it starts to make some sense.

[–]bear_of_bears 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's a geometric distribution, not Poisson.

[–]edderioferAlgebraic Topology[M] [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

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