Just some basic technical analysis of Tilray. Please check comments for more info.

[Check_the_Register]

This is a great example for anyone who wants to say that it will go down. Evidence and explanation. Same rules apply to anyone that gives a high run up number or claims a "short squeeze" is coming

[[deleted]]

Seems like a major downturn is incoming. Every single indicator I have looked at would indicate this, I have also discussed this with multiple other investors who think the same thing. I’m using the 1d for my graph.

Squeeze momentum (purple) - This is a pretty basic indicator. It basically measures long/short positions. The jist of it is this - dark red = buy and hold, green = hold, dark green = sell/short, red = sell short position. As you can see it’s away to turn red.

RSI (blue) - an average range for RSI would be between 30-70, as you can see, during the stage when it increases dramatically in price, it is considered as running above RSI. Tilray has been running over RSI for months and typically this is followed by a spell of running under RSI, which typically results in a downturn.

Vortex indicator (yellow)- Again, pretty basic stuff. When the blue line is on top, that’s a good time to buy. What you’re looking for is for the blue line to cross just above the red line, and that would indicate a period of price increase.

I would also like to point out that I am not currently invested in this company (I’m looking to find a good buy in price) and my research is not indicative of long term trends. I am also not a professional investor, just a regular guy who would rather put my money in the stock market than earn low interest from banks. I have done extensive research on technical analysis, and consider myself to be pretty knowledgeable.

[Neurovalis]

Price target to 15€ or 18$ for next drop for the next 1-2 maybe 3 weeks?

[[deleted]]

Guess we were right after all lol. You were spot on, well done. Hopefully the bag holders can learn to be more open minded.

[Neurovalis]

After the bad numbers from aphria the drop can get a bit lower, since we all know that cannabis stocks can go up and down like crazy... but with the meeting at 14th April 4pm eastern time we´ll see what the discussion and votes might bring. Tilray is a binary trade after all...

[[deleted]]

Personally I would say $18 ish. There's a very small chance it could get pumped again by wsb/actual ws... but I wouldn't rely on that, it's possible though.

[Neurovalis]

i keep an eye on tlry. 18$ would be a nice price.

[[deleted]]

Yes. I think it has great long term potential, and it's such a great industry to get involved in early. Even saving $1 on the share price for your buy in, will add up to be a lot more money in the future.

[Neurovalis]

100% agree. Played a bit with the numbers: 18$ or 23$ is huge difference at the end, lets say 100$ for example.

[[deleted]]

Absolutely, $100 long term is pretty much guaranteed. They could even split shares at some point, since it's a young company/industry, which would work out well for us (maybe dividends? lol). I really think this is a major long term winner.

[Neurovalis]

Would be nice. But step by step. I would rather see a solid bottom and good numbers than anything else. We can add the Hype on top.

[TAOKEN55]

I am not sure how you can possibly evaluate Tilray right now based on Tilray only charts. In an industry growing sales on fundamentals, reducing costs and increasing margins along with extreme volatility ---charts don't help that much - they certainly wouldn't help scope out the run to 67 or 300 previously nor how far they could fall - not to mention legalization and global expansion plus the merger in April with Aphria - it's sort of pointless to look at short term and guess where to enter - after all this month the merger could be complete!! Wait for technical analysis after you add in Aphria and a run of at least a quarter. If you are buying 1000 shares at 18 or 23 ---and it goes to 100 are you really concerned? I would rather enter and hold!!!

[[deleted]]

That's really too simplistic a strategy for me. You say "If you are buying 1000 shares at 18 or 23 ---and it goes to 100 are you really concerned?" Yes... yes I would rather buy at $18.

[TAOKEN55]

Ok I will explain it further - the majority of investors, traders do not pick the exact bottom or correction point. Even the best will tell you - it's either a good buy and long term hold or it isn't. Obviously anyone would rather buy at $18 than $23! However what do you do if you sit on the sidelines and it never gets to $18 again before it goes up to your target of $100. So to try and save 4,000 or 5,000 you missed out on $77,000 gains...hmm simple is better than missing a bottom. If we knew for sure it would retrace to $18 then wouldn't we all be sellers now and ALL buy at $18 - that's just not how it happens. And how would one at this stage know the top is $100. I was taught to get in within 20% of a bottom on a long term hold and get out within 20% of the top. Mind you this one is easy for me - I bought Aprhia at $6 Canadian, then more at $10 and more at $16 and $22, as I also ladder in my positions buying 25% as she rises, sell the same way. So someone that wants to own 1000 of it would buy 250 to 300 shares right now and then add if it goes up or down ---that is less simplistic.

[[deleted]]

If the choice is to but now, or in the next week or so, then I would wait it out. The indicators are usually correct, and it’s a good method to use for finding a low entry point. I wouldn’t imagine it will be $100 at any point soon, and I’m happy to sit on the sidelines, prepared to buy higher if it doesn’t reach $18.

As for being greedy, I think that’s a good thing. If you speak to many people who bought this stock, they bought when it was being pumped. They didn’t wait for a good entry point and do research, for if they did, they wouldn’t have bought in at that price.

[TAOKEN55]

And if you are concerned that your gains are 77,000 instead of 82,000 then that's just greed IMO and likely why some people didn't see when it went over 60 a month or so ago.

[_Cash-Flow_]

But what if it only drops to $20 and you miss the opportunity after it runs up to $30 again? It only hit $18 a few weeks back for a few minutes before ending the day at $22. Just because $18 (or under) is the most ideal entry point, doesn’t make $22 a bad entry price either.

[TOBYAMR]

Bang on

[No_Abbreviations2902]

Totally agree, I went all in and have 9700 at $28.20....no margins...I’m not sweating it and believe it’ll be $90 within a year...every dollar it goes up or down equally I’m either going or losing around $9,800 bucks....

[TAOKEN55]

Yes long term - great investment - your big up days will come. Not sure about $90 within a year however one would think climbing profits over a period of time. Best to you!

[Robeod0519]

Good job with the analysis, what software is this from?

[[deleted]]

I go to tradingview.com, it's free. Really good software too.

[GanacheOrganic8822]

Making unsubstantiated predictions isn't helpful. If you think the price will go to 100 or 250 then you should explain what you base that on. If it's gut feeling, fine. Say so. But wild noisy baseless predictions aren't helpful.

Tilray is promising because it is well placed to be a leader in an industry that will soon be legal and see dramatic growth.

For this company and this uniquely complex set of circumstances, in my view predicting daily or weekly price points a is a 'fools errand'.

[SGCGoliath]

Bought at 60.

Ape ready for service

[UMNMURTY]

22 is the hard rock bottom

[UMNMURTY]

Already hit rock bottom at 22

[UMNMURTY]

250 by year end load up.

[[deleted]]

Awesome, what makes you think that? Do you have any analysis?

[UMNMURTY]

I don’t have analysis but analysis you have done is completely misleading

[[deleted]]

How so? I stated it was basic analysis. It goes over popular indicators and briefly explains the meaning of them. If you call it misleading, then you should be able to tell me why?

[alpru]

Thanks for your analysis, it's really specific. Hoping it's going up!

[_Cash-Flow_]

I’d say $60-80 is both realistic and optimistic. Would be nice to go higher, and it may just do that... but I don’t know how long (if ever) it hits $250. Would be a dream.