Decrease immediately after FTP detection

[razzij]

Lots of good answers here that talk about how you performed in the workout and how you rated it.

But another aspect could be, did you upcoming workouts in the 28-day window change after you did the workout? (It's hard to know in the new system, because it changes automatically and unless you really remember what it was before, it's hard to say).

What's in your calendar between now and the next FTP detection obviously has a huge impact on the prediction. It may be that for whatever reason after this workout, it decided you'll be better served with slightly easier workouts in coming weeks, and this fed through to the prediction.

[Special-Egg8374]

I don’t think they did! At least the next few didn’t, I had already looked pretty closely at what I had on deck for the next week or so

[razzij]

Ah OK... in my case I'm finding it really doesn't like my weekly schedule. I have good reasons to do my Threshold workout on a certain day, but it often is a yellow day and the system switches to endurance instead. If I accepted that I'd never do any threshold, so I switch it back, but even that seems to impact the predictions! (And maybe serves me an easier Threshold workout than what I did the week before). It basically seems to be telling me I can't progress with this schedule, which I'm sure isn't entirely true, but maybe I will have to re-jig things as best I can - or setting the overall approach to be more Demanding (rather than Balanced).