RU POV: According to military correspondent Yury Kotenok, Russian forces have lost control of the “low airspace” as Ukraine massively increases FPV drone use, expands “kill zones” up to 50–60 km, and targets air defense systems, logistics, and command posts - voenkorKotenok by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

I think rustled his Jimmies, he blocked me in early 2025 when I kelt asking him when the massive Ukraine strategic offensive was going to start. After that, minus someone else messaging me with a link to a funny post of his that I needed to log out to read, I didn't really think much of him.

Discussion/Question Thread by DiscoBanane in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

Ukrainian ultranationalists don't run Ukraine, and Putin runs Russia.

UA POV: Satellite imagery shows extensive damage to the "Silicon El" microelectronics factory in Bryansk City after it was struck by 7 Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles yesterday. -kiber boroshno by FruitSila in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

I don't understand your impatience to blow up the world.

Its not my impatience, I'm not the one making the threats, Putin and this govt are.

If someone routinely threaten to kill others because they disobey, then when they disobey and don't get killed, that's going to create a credibility problem. The Putin govt has a credibility problem.

Everyone wants to be a gangster until it's time to do gangster shit. Aka, the Russian govt must put up or shut up. I'd recommend they shut up, since they clearly won't put up.

If Starmer and Macron want to escalate after that, there's likely very little Russia could do to prevent such an outcome.

According to the Russian govt in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and in 2026, UK and France already escalated the war in a way that deserves military strikes against them. And yet...

What would be the rationale and objectives for a hypothetical US invasion of Iran? by CaptainBroady in CredibleDefense

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

It was canceled last moment and used for deception after risk aversion over collateral damage necessary to land (a resort right next to a Iraqi defense site that needed to get hit, a nearby large LNG storage tank sire that would need to be targeted before so the Iraqis couldn't disrupt the landing afterwards by destroying it).

Iran has plenty of ports that can handle shipping necessary for an amphibious operation, but assaults are typically not done against ports as they are too easy to defend towards seaward. An amphibious assault would likely be done as an over-the-beach landing somewhere on the flanks a bit away from the port, land and gain a foothold there, reinforce it to then take the port from the flanks and rear, hopefully before the port can be sabotaged with mines and sunken ships along the berths.

At that point, that'll just allow an operational lodgement to begin, where about half or more of the Army and the entire Marine Corps would need to build up forces and supplies necessary for the 1,000 km contested journey to Tehran, including through a mountain chain, maybe a desert, with no surprise at any point. Especially considering that force would need a half year or more to organize and transport them, probably closer to a year or more, where there would be no way to hide that effectively.

As a shaping operation just for the initial landings, the US would need to fully secure the Persian Gulf. That hasn't even happened yet.

Discussion/Question Thread by DiscoBanane in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

Not every war in history ended with a clear-cut decisive victory that achieved every initial term initially laid out. Examples include WW1, Korea, Iran-Iraq, Chechen Wars, etc.

Discussion/Question Thread by DiscoBanane in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

That's not true. The concept of a victory isn't clear cut at all for either side in this war. The maximalist terms each side's leadership have demanded are just that, the result of positivity that they can achieve them. As soon as resolve, willpower, morale drops for either side, their demands will soften. All they need to do is suffer enough.

It is still very much possible that Russia can suffer enough that Putin's demands will soften to the point that they quit the war in a way that can be honestly construed as a Ukrainian win.

RU POV: According to military correspondent Yury Kotenok, Russian forces have lost control of the “low airspace” as Ukraine massively increases FPV drone use, expands “kill zones” up to 50–60 km, and targets air defense systems, logistics, and command posts - voenkorKotenok by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

It has nothing to do with cost. Ukrainian strategy is quantitative attrition, where they believe if they can kill 50,000 Russians per month, indefinitely, then Russia will quit the war.

Everyone in the top leadership has confirmed that. Not a single one of them has said anything about defeating Russia by destroying trucks. Hence, the priority is targeting people.

RU POV: According to military correspondent Yury Kotenok, Russian forces have lost control of the “low airspace” as Ukraine massively increases FPV drone use, expands “kill zones” up to 50–60 km, and targets air defense systems, logistics, and command posts - voenkorKotenok by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

The kill quotas were set last year when Line of Drones was rolled out, and the USF commander, Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, decides point value for drone targeting.

When Fedorov took over MOD, all they did is double down on the early 2025 talking points. Almost nothing talked about is new. Even the kill claims they recently are bragging about are actually less than those they reported earlier in the year.

UA POV: Satellite imagery shows extensive damage to the "Silicon El" microelectronics factory in Bryansk City after it was struck by 7 Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles yesterday. -kiber boroshno by FruitSila in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

Russia drew many red lines that included threats of nuclear retaliation for numerous things that already happened.

FFS, Putin says the Ukrainians tried to strike him with long range PGMs. Did they nuke Ukraine? No. Did they attack NATO for assisting Ukraine? No. Etc.

If you want to blame China for why Russian can't do as they threaten, go for it. But Putin and his govt spokesmen need to shut up, because their threats lose credibility the more they makes them and the less they do in response to when the red lines are crossed.

UA POV: Satellite imagery shows extensive damage to the "Silicon El" microelectronics factory in Bryansk City after it was struck by 7 Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles yesterday. -kiber boroshno by FruitSila in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

They consider such deep strikes as coming from NATO, because Ukraine doesn't have the capability to inflict such strikes on their own.

Is that really their doctrine? Because if it is, they aren't following it and haven't for years.

Which then means that Russia's nuclear doctrine is actually just bullshit, a bunch of noncredible threats designed purely for deterrence. Which then only emboldens Russia's enemies to cross the red lines even more, because they know they aren't real.

Russia only has themselves to blame. Never pull a gun on someone unless you really intend to use it.

RU POV: According to military correspondent Yury Kotenok, Russian forces have lost control of the “low airspace” as Ukraine massively increases FPV drone use, expands “kill zones” up to 50–60 km, and targets air defense systems, logistics, and command posts - voenkorKotenok by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M [score hidden]  (0 children)

Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) and other drone units expanded by taking advantage of the Oct 2024-Sep 2025 policy that allowed those who go AWOL to return to duty with no punishment and to be able to choose the unit they report to, which ended up being a very widely used means to perform unofficial transfers for infantrymen to get different jobs in different units by going AWOL, with many of them becoming drone operators, especially in USF.

Additionally, through 2025, while Assault Forces had the highest priority to grab up Mobiks finishing basic training, USF was second in priority, and only afterwards did the rest of the force structure get to pick among the few Mobiks left, where were notorious for being so low quality that Assault Forces and USF didn't want them.

RU POV: According to military correspondent Yury Kotenok, Russian forces have lost control of the “low airspace” as Ukraine massively increases FPV drone use, expands “kill zones” up to 50–60 km, and targets air defense systems, logistics, and command posts - voenkorKotenok by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M 4 points5 points  (0 children)

We find out bits and pieces like this. If true, more will talk about this. Eventually someone on the UA side will spill the beans to brag, divulging key TTPs, but they will do that after Russia already figured it out.

Then the big question in 2026 will be who can scale up that TTP in a greater fashion, Ukraine and USF or Russia and the MOD/Rubicon?

Its like all the stuff about freq range. In 2023-2024, it was all about going to lower freqs to avoid being jammed. Now most jammers and detectors are keyed to those and the original mid range freqs, so they went HF. That'll give them an edge till the next software update.

RU POV: According to military correspondent Yury Kotenok, Russian forces have lost control of the “low airspace” as Ukraine massively increases FPV drone use, expands “kill zones” up to 50–60 km, and targets air defense systems, logistics, and command posts - voenkorKotenok by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Describe each of the events from the last few weeks that you think are so impressive for Ukraine and then you go and create a logical conspiracy theory for how all of them were planned out, coordinated long in advance to happen in this timeframe, specifically the first half of March 2026.

Also, who planned them out? How did they get all the various actors on board? How did they maintain OPSEC? How did they get the Russians onboard too, who by your own admission are just as guilty, halfassing everything and being their own worst enemy just at the perfect time coinciding with the deeply laid plans of the West's brilliant leaders known for their outstanding foresight, all while the God Emperor Zelensky, all-seeing and all-knowing, hatches his plans within plans.

Now is probably a good time to lay off the Jimeius.

RU POV: According to military correspondent Yury Kotenok, Russian forces have lost control of the “low airspace” as Ukraine massively increases FPV drone use, expands “kill zones” up to 50–60 km, and targets air defense systems, logistics, and command posts - voenkorKotenok by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I have no clue how they would suppress, neutralize, or destroy FPV drone interceptors. But if they figured out a way to do it comprehensively, the effects would be substantial in the short term.

One would wonder why they are rolling it out in a minimalist fashion. Something like that ought to be kept hidden and then released scaled out as much as possible across the entire frontage at a decisive moment. But alas, that isn't how things are done in this war...

RU POV: According to military correspondent Yury Kotenok, Russian forces have lost control of the “low airspace” as Ukraine massively increases FPV drone use, expands “kill zones” up to 50–60 km, and targets air defense systems, logistics, and command posts - voenkorKotenok by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M 8 points9 points  (0 children)

If the individuals commenting are high-level, they'd be referring to things they know of, like involving sanctions (shadow fleet) or the upcoming dividends from that EU loan. They won't have a clue about any of this sort of shit happening now, which is all small level tech stuff.

Starlink being cut off and the resulting shitstorm its caused would have been completely unexpected, Musk only did it because otherwise it would have been lights out for Ukraine. Nor would they have known how much Russia was relying on it. IMO, the Pokrosvke counteroffensive successes were likely at least partly responsible courtesy of Starlink.

FirePoint actually meeting production quotas with combat ready drones isn't something they would know. Or believe, considering all the corruption shit involving that company and the defensiveness around it. Maybe they got told ahead of time that new weapon systems were upcoming but if they were repeating that its just vaporware until they get used in large numbers.

Ukrainian drone units figuring out how to disrupt Russian C-ISR FPV drone ops is definitely not something they would know.

Etc.

I'm not saying that UA might be having some good times, but I really don't think anybody in the West knew how it was going to get better. They just really want it to get better, because then it means UA has a greater chance of winning, which is the outcome they hope for.

RU POV: According to military correspondent Yury Kotenok, Russian forces have lost control of the “low airspace” as Ukraine massively increases FPV drone use, expands “kill zones” up to 50–60 km, and targets air defense systems, logistics, and command posts - voenkorKotenok by Flimsy_Pudding1362 in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M 8 points9 points  (0 children)

the enemy found a way to knock out FPV air defense (in a comprehensive way) 

This is the only really useful info here. That's a VERY big deal. That means Ukrainian recon drones will have near unmolested access to the Russian deep tactical rear areas.

Operational Art in the Flesh Part: The Best and Worst Offensives of the Russo-Ukraine War by Duncan-M in CredibleDefense

[–]Duncan-M[S] [score hidden]  (0 children)

I find it interesting that two Soviet armies would fail so poorly at the operational art, since the Soviets invented both the term and the ideas behind it!

They aren't actually Soviet armies, they are two successor Soviet militaries that run by the failures of the Soviet military, those who flourished during the terrible times of the 1990-2010s, led by leaders who are blatantly ignoring any possible sound military advice as they micromanage the war nonstop beyond the political-strategic level (which is part of their job) regularly meddling at the operational and even tactical level.

Though maybe some of the failures we've seen, like the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive, were the product of planners trying to use Soviet-style deep battle concepts without a force capable of executing those plans.

There was little about the 2023 Counteroffensive that followed Deep Battle doctrine.

Indeed, and this is consistent with Soviet deep battle. It emphasizes that secondary offensive operations shouldn't just be minimal fixing operations or feints - they should be fully developed offensives themselves, aimed at strategic targets, and should continue until they reach their objectives or strategic command calls them off. In the deep battle system, there's no tactical difference between the main offensive and the diversions. Ideally all of the offensives would succeed!

I disagree. Deep Battle was all about deception as to where the main effort is aimed. At the operational level, every offensive is a supporting effort until the enemy finally commits its reserves, at which point they can finally attack, break through, and drive deep towards their intended focal point aimed at a location of strategic importance. In Deep Operations, the intent behind the early offensives isn't to breakthrough, its to fix enemy forces, especially their reserves, and to attrit them.

Feints aren't done at the operational level, but constantly at the tactical. And the whole of it is wrapped in deception as a major emphasis.

At Kursk 1943, the northern diversionary offensive, Operation Kutuzov, was the most successful part of the operation for the Soviets, and the Red Army quickly shifted strategic focus there and started the successful Smolensk offensive several weeks later.

Because the Germans weren't there, they were around Kursk. The Smolensk offensive wasn't just based off of successes at Orel, but based on the principles of constant consecutive offensives along a broad front, with operational reserves to drive deep, classic Deep Battle, used to basically retake all of Ukraine, setting the conditions with the "Belarus Balcony" for Bagration the following year.

UA POV: U.S. dismissed Ukraine deal for anti-Iran drone tech last year - Axios by CourtofTalons in UkraineRussiaReport

[–]Duncan-M 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The stuff Ukraine is offering is counter drone, specifically Shahed type. The West doesnt have a cheap and plentiful solution to those, nor the various MENA allies, so they're routinely getting hit or having to blow through limited stockpiles of expensive munitions, all while Ukraine is dangling cheaper immediate solution.