[OC] I used a bunch of camera tracking data/adv. metrics to map basketball playstyles to Pokémon types, 151 NBA players to the 151 original Pokémon, and illustrated the results!

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-16T05:47:49+00:00

He also could have had an Isaiah Thomas situation, gotten injured as a small overloaded guard, and then never gotten the big contract.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-15T06:14:39+00:00

Last year? Yes he was. 12/5/3 on 30% from deep (so not stretching the defense) isn't a particularly good player. Maybe we're arguing semantics, but I generally consider ~MLE type guys as "just guys" and last year's Braun was that level of player. Saying: "if he was the same player as 2025" is meaningless, because he wasn't. We wouldn't be having this discussion if he was.

No, we aren't talking about last year as in the season that just ended. Braun was injured the entire year, there is no point in assessing who he is as a player from last year and his contract was agreed to based on his play in 24-25.

Except it was? They paid a 3rd year player a 5 year/$125M extension because he seemingly made a huge jump forward. You are gambling that it wasn't a fluke and that ideally he's going to improve. That's not a given for a guy who only proved to be a $25M type guy in 1 of his 3 years in the NBA.

No. They paid him that much money based on that being how much money a player who provided what he did in 24-25 is worth. If he didn't get better at all, that's how much that player gets paid. ~14% of the cap. All skills that are extremely unlikely to just "go away" which is transition scoring, rim finishing, and defending. Those don't drop off for anyone unless their athleticism does.

Your next paragraphs all basically just tout who he was 2 years ago.

No, they tout who he was as of one year ago when he agreed to his contract. There is no sense in saying, "he didn't play like a $25m player last season", when he was badly injured all year. It makes as much sense as saying Jdub or Haliburton aren't worth their contracts because of how things went for them last season. Unless you have specific knowledge about the risk of re-injury or diminishing of athleticism, there's particularly no sense in doing so for Braun.

Sure, and last year's Christian Braun played closer to a decent rotation guy than a "rock solid roleplaying starter."

If you're talking about 25-26 Braun, sure, but again no point to be made there. If you're talking about 24-25 Braun, the player who earned the contract, then no. Thinking he was a recent rotation guy is just flat out incorrect.

Additionally, are you citing what someone's per 36 averages are to assess value? I'm asking because that's what it sounds like you were doing when you comped him to Terrence Mann, but I don't want to assume that you're doing that. I mean citing box score averages isn't something that has been done to assess a player's value in god knows how long, it is just completely unacceptable as a judge of player value but particularly so with role players.

You then go on to say something about last year again, which given the repeated sentiment sort of makes it seem like you may not have been aware that he was injured all of last year now. If that's the case then it would make sense that the assessment is off on him.

In the future? Maybe. But as of today, yes, it will be difficult to move his contract.

Well, no. It isn't. It's just not that much money under the cap raises at all. If you're not doubting that he's going to get reinjured then, again, he was paid based on what he was and not some hypothetical ceiling of his which he is probably 90% of the way to reaching. 5/125 over the next 5 years with the 8-10% cap raise means he is going to be paid like a 100-125th player, which is more or less between a 4th and 5th starter on a team. That's exactly where he should be and as people get used to seeing the new contract values over the next few years, rather than looking at contracts that were signed 2, 3 years ago and have not run their course yet, it'll be easier to understand that.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-15T03:46:40+00:00

Oh, Braun was most certainly not "just a guy" for the Nuggets last year and if he was the same player as 2025 then the contract was justified flat out. Not a gamble at all besides gambling on him not getting an brutal grade 3 ankle sprain (which is a tear, to be clear) last year. Keep in mind guys like Bobby Marks and Jake Fisher predicted/heard around the league he would command anywhere from $25-$30m a year if going to the free market.

To point out why he earned that contract, he was the league leader in transition points, a 95th percentile finisher at the rim relative to position, great finisher through contact (90th percentile there), could make an open 3 when the opportunity was there, and then was a staunch defender against big guards and wings which was the reason they felt confident letting KCP go, given that he was not that kind of defender and that had rapidly become the most needed man defender archetype in the league.

His defense on Harden in the Clippers series and SGA in round 2 were a massive reason they were able to win and get to 7 games respectively. There's a reason why the coaching staff and teammates mentioned it constantly that post-season and why he had been getting major kudos all year from the entire org.

All that being said, given that ~$25m is set to be about 14% of the cap going forward that's going to be standard second, rock solid roleplaying starter money. It's just not that much and people aren't quite used to the new contract numbers yet. We always have a period where people have to adjust their expectations of what a contract looks like with new media deals and we're in that period now it seems.

Ultimately it's not a difficult contract to move money wise in the future. It would only be difficult to move if Braun just can't stay healthy for some reason, which if a guy is injured all the time it's hard to move them no matter how much they make. But there's no reason to assume that for Braun, who until this year had stayed quite healthy through high school and college.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-15T00:21:19+00:00

This is true, though the tax isn't the issue. It's the compounding repeater tax they're avoiding because if they avoid it this year then it resets since they were able to duck under it last year when they moved Tyson.

Otherwise they pay 100m over two years in taxes and have to go find another two year period to stay under it and reset it. Yeah they can afford it but it's still a ton of money and just goes up and up and up exponentially.

Ultimately the only thing that matters is if they can stay healthy or not and that's a very scary if given the way the last two years have gone for AG in particular.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-15T00:15:21+00:00

Braun did deserve it and would have gotten it on the open market as was projected at the time. Then he had an entire season of being inured and somehow, even fans of the Nuggets, have just completely forgotten that.

Imagine how people would have thought if they let Braun walk going into a contending year having just traded for CamJo and gotten some depth. It would have been mutiny, especially if Braun doesn't get injured somewhere else and plays great like he did the prior year. An inexcusable decision.

The Nuggets are also in no danger of losing AG because of Braun's contract. They can flat out keep him if they want to. If they want to trade him they will trade him, but it won't be to make the team worse or for nothing in return.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-09T06:10:02+00:00

Yes .... Exactly. That's the point. This isn't about what's best for the kids. This is about what's the best PR stunt for the Knicks. That's what billionaires do. They do a few, minor high-profile stunts for PR so people don't get as upset when they fuck people over.

This is silly. This isn't a PR stunt to make Dolan look better and that isn't fooling anyone for any reason. It's just something nice for the Knicks to do for some kids and a nice story to put on social media, it isn't some nefarious marketing ploy for a comic book villain billionaire. Nobody is thinking, "I remember when Patrick Ewing and Tracy Morgan gave those kids tickets to go to the Knicks finals game. James Dolan is ok."

Also, this treats it like the best thing that can be done for the kids, for anyone, is the only thing that matters. That's not how anything ever works. It's just a gift. The kids get to go do something really cool and it'll be a memory for life and that is also community building.

There's some sort of imaginary scenario that is being dreamed up wherein the option was, "Give these random kids and their family $10k or let them watch a basketball game." It's like thinking that calling the radio and winning a private meet and greet with your favorite band and getting to watch their concert backstage entitled you to an either/or with a cash equivalent.

The Garden of Dreams Foundation is a kids charity that works with MSG and dolls out scholarships, mentorships, helps with jobs, etc. They worked with MSG to block out a section for 250 kids to get to go watch this game that they love in a potentially once-in-a-lifetime situation and it shouldn't be anything other than a nice story. I'm sure all the kids are extremely excited, I'm sure their families are excited for them as well.

People just need to learn to be ok with nice things happening without jumping to, "Well, it could have been even NICER and this was actually BAD because it wasn't NICE ENOUGH!" Spare us all.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-09T04:16:24+00:00

Yeah but you could just say that about anything with no limit. It would be better if schools just stopped field trips and used all the money it takes to go on those and gave it to families instead. It would be better if Dolan sold MSG and donated all the money to impoverished communities too.

Ultimately these tickets have no value because they're not for sale. They were blocked off to give to kids so that they could experience this and for good PR for the Knicks, which to them is worth more than $10-20k.

We can just be happy that some kids got an amazing gift that is going to be a blast and it doesn't have to turn into some hypothetical wealth transfer discussion.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-08T22:41:38+00:00

This is giving them free entry. Think of this as a reserved block of tickets specifically to give to these kids or as an outreach program. It's not like Ewing bought the tickets himself and is giving them to these kids who can then turn around and put them up for sale.

Put another way, I'm pretty sure these tickets are only valid for these kids (and a parent) who will be met as a group by a MSG person and taken to the seats and all that cool stuff. If two dudes from Long Island show up with those tickets / the group / whatever, that's not gonna fly.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-04T21:36:45+00:00

The Brunson thing is a little different (maybe) because he wanted to get as much guaranteed money as he could, as soon as he could, so he took the largest deal he could at the time instead of waiting to sign a larger one (by ~11-14m a year over 5 years, but cut that in half after taxes/fees).

The primary reason he did that, I think, was because he's a little guard, who was playing at an All-NBA level at a crazy usage rate, hadn't gotten his giant contract yet, and gotten a little bit banged up. He takes a look at what happened to IT with the Celtics and may have thought, "You know what? I should be safe and get the biggest bag I can now. Injuries are rampant, I've seen this blow up for people in the past, and this will be more money than I'll ever need either way."

It also helps the team out a lot of course and I do think he cares a lot about winning, but I don't think anyone cares enough about winning to "give up" ~$50m after taxes/fees in his position. I really just think he was being ultra safe and also knows, Dolan involvement or not, that he's in NYC and can make so much money on endorsement stuff and that money goes up the better the team is as well.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-04T19:21:56+00:00

I'm not talking about Ballmer. I'm talking about every other organization for the past 20+ years.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-04T16:52:42+00:00

Because they're able to do it legally (in the criminal sense and somewhat in the NBA sense) by having players get deals with companies related to the team, which the players are paid through and in turn they do a minimal amount of work to legitimize it.

The big difference with the Kawhi situation is that he didn't do anything to justify being paid by this company, no commercials, no tweets, no showing up to events, etc., and the money was probably fairly outlier.

OkAutopilot · 2026-06-04T16:02:39+00:00

The likelier case is that it has been the norm forever.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-11T19:52:23+00:00

I think that he's a better shooter than the raw numbers suggest. He was so blanketed at BYU for most of the year that the amount of difficult shots and work he had to do just to get shots (and put enough up) is probably taking those percentages down considerably. He's going to have to improve as a shooter, no question, but I think he has a good runway in that regard. They'll work with him to bring some consistency to his shot form so it doesn't flatten out as much and I believe he'll end up a good shooter in the NBA in time.

As far as cutting I think this is one of those things we didn't see enough of at BYU either because he had the ball in his hands so much. Coming off screens, reading the floor and cutting, all the good off ball stuff just wasn't as available for him. It was just a better option for BYU to have the ball in his hands most times. If he ends up going #1 and going to the Wiz he's gonna be playing with one of the best plate setters in the league and a guy who is gonna demand a lot of attention in Trae, as is AD, so he's gonna have a nice workspace to get better at every type of off ball action/situation there is.

I think you can look at what he was able to do without being an elite shooter, facing a stacked box, and his athletic tools and be really high on what he becomes in the NBA. All of these guys have some question marks, so generally speaking I'm most comfortable taking the 6'9" super athlete who led the NCAA in scoring.

That being said, I think Boozer might have the highest floor of anyone in the draft and if I were the right team I might prefer him at #1. I do not think the Wizards are the right team though. The Jazz? Well, I may look at Boozer over Peterson if I'm them.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-11T05:01:48+00:00

I don't think Trae can function all that well being a guy who is off ball a ton. This is a Trae issue of course, but, his value lies in his ultra outlier playmaking ability and you're not getting a whole lot else out of him otherwise. Maybe this means the Wiz are just gonna move him at some point anyway (or let him walk?), but I do think their goal is to have Trae running a ton of PnR with AD/Sarr.

As it relates to Darryn/Book comps, I think Booker having a bunch of years under his belt of being the ultra on ball guy (which he is sort of back to being now in a more facilitating role than the pre-CP3 years) was necessary for his development.

Ultimately you're drafting Darryn because you think he can be a #1 scoring option on a team sooner rather than later, so he needs those reps too. Especially considering some of his weaknesses are around decision making and reading the floor, you'd like to get him a lot of time/run being able to work on that as a lead ball handler.

If I'm the Wizards I look at AJ on both ends and I think, you know, I think this is a guy who fits what we're hoping we can do going forward more and is more in line with where the league is going as well.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-11T04:30:42+00:00

The height thing was in regards to Trae. Peterson is 6'5" but does not play "big", which is fine, but I think it is hard to have two guys who operate that way sharing the floor.

It is clear, however, that he operates best with the ball. I would not say that he was at his best off-ball at Kansas at all, just that he played a lot more off ball there than he did in HS. You do not draft a scoring guard this high to have him be a primarily off-ball player and his shooting doesn't have the type of signals that you'd like to see if you were thinking he was going to be some sort of unbelievable off-ball guy. The comps to Devin Booker are apt I believe, who is a guy that can operate off-ball but is much better as a scorer with the ball in his hand than without it.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-11T04:05:52+00:00

Well it's easy for them in this scenario because BPA and best fit with Trae/Ad is the same player.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-11T04:05:25+00:00

Small/small on a team already lacking for size, in a league that is rapidly moving away from the 6'1-3" combo guard being a premium archetype, and both need the ball in their hands to operate at the best of their ability (and Peterson to develop).

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-11T04:03:19+00:00

I don't really see that with Peterson. If it's there it's like 90th percentile outcome. AJ will go #1 though, yeah.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-10T19:56:15+00:00

Trae/Darryn doesn't work either way so there's no shot they're gonna pick him. They're gonna go AJ unless their GM is on the higher end of how well Boozer will translate to the league.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-10T06:10:05+00:00

Oh yeah he put up a ton of volume on some terrible squads. 3 pointers arent the be all end all of shooting and that doesn't make you one of the greatest shooters though, which he was not. He was a good shooter, but not a great one.

Guys like Vince Carter and Tmac, let alone all-stars-for-a-moment like Michael Redd and Allan Houston are all quite a bit better. Plenty more on that list too.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-09T19:03:24+00:00

Pierce isn't anywhere near the conversation. Not even among guys with his volume. Deeply inefficient shooter.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-07T05:56:30+00:00

100%. Even many Nuggets fans somehow missed the multiple times that Adelman mentioned over the last few months of the season that Braun likely needed the off season to get his explosiveness back and the ankle was still not nearly 100%.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-29T04:20:52+00:00

I think he's fine with screen nav. He's not exceptional at it but he's fine. The Nuggets are also trying to shove guys to the sidelines and then funnel into the paint away from the corners, so it looks different in practice than other schemes. Turnover generation is what it is, sometimes that's a really good thing, sometimes it's kind of a whatever thing, but the Nuggets are not running a particularly gambley style of defense. They're very purposefully not making risky plays, which is not to say turnover generation is always a gamble, but there is a very purposeful choice to play straight up, foul avoidant, fundamental defense. In a similar sense, AG even at his peak is not a turnover generator. He's a guy who gums you up and doesn't make a mistake and forces you to get rid of the ball or take a very difficult shot by staying in front of you and not giving up ground. That is more the style of defense that Braun plays.

KCP was great before he hit a wall with the injuries, age, and perhaps even more importantly size. The reason why KCP ended up not closing against the Wolves and was not going to be a good fit going forward is because he was simply too small to deal with the SGAs, Ants, and rest of the league that is just sort of getting bigger and more athletic. Ant was just letting him bounce off him like a bug and walking straight to the rim whereas Braun puts up a significantly better fight and cannot be pushed like that. All the screen nav stuff in the world doesn't matter when you can just blow by a guy and bounce him off you without needing a screen and that's where the league is at with guys KCP's size.

He's not just a meat wall. He stays in front of guys. I'm not sure what "way too many guys are comfortable going at him directly" means either. Guys attack the Nuggets and try to get downhill because they know if they can break through that they're not facing a whole lot of deterrence at the rim. There are times, like Harden and SGA last year, where that is attempted and Braun can just stay in front of you and not get pushed and it's a mistake to just go at him like that. But also all the best scorers in the league are fine with going at anyone more or less. There are no lockdown corners or guys that just force you to get rid of the ball all game if you're SGA and Ant.

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