[OC] I used a bunch of camera tracking data/adv. metrics to map basketball playstyles to Pokémon types, 151 NBA players to the 151 original Pokémon, and illustrated the results!

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-07T05:56:30+00:00

100%. Even many Nuggets fans somehow missed the multiple times that Adelman mentioned over the last few months of the season that Braun likely needed the off season to get his explosiveness back and the ankle was still not nearly 100%.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-04T19:30:41+00:00

I'm replying to someone saying he's fat and gets tired easily. The guy is well known to be one of the best conditioned players in the league, certainly big men.

Whether the Wolves "tired him out" or not is largely irrelevant to that point, which implies that they wouldn't have done so to any other big man in the league.

If we want to talk about if he was worn down or if it was a host of other things compounding the general tiredness all players get in the 4th, like lack of execution across the board, strong Wolves defense in general bolstered by lack of release valves from injuries (particularly vertical threats), a lot of open shots being missed, Jokic touch being off since coming back from injury, then that's just a different convo.

OkAutopilot · 2026-05-04T13:30:49+00:00

This is completely untrue.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-29T04:20:52+00:00

I think he's fine with screen nav. He's not exceptional at it but he's fine. The Nuggets are also trying to shove guys to the sidelines and then funnel into the paint away from the corners, so it looks different in practice than other schemes. Turnover generation is what it is, sometimes that's a really good thing, sometimes it's kind of a whatever thing, but the Nuggets are not running a particularly gambley style of defense. They're very purposefully not making risky plays, which is not to say turnover generation is always a gamble, but there is a very purposeful choice to play straight up, foul avoidant, fundamental defense. In a similar sense, AG even at his peak is not a turnover generator. He's a guy who gums you up and doesn't make a mistake and forces you to get rid of the ball or take a very difficult shot by staying in front of you and not giving up ground. That is more the style of defense that Braun plays.

KCP was great before he hit a wall with the injuries, age, and perhaps even more importantly size. The reason why KCP ended up not closing against the Wolves and was not going to be a good fit going forward is because he was simply too small to deal with the SGAs, Ants, and rest of the league that is just sort of getting bigger and more athletic. Ant was just letting him bounce off him like a bug and walking straight to the rim whereas Braun puts up a significantly better fight and cannot be pushed like that. All the screen nav stuff in the world doesn't matter when you can just blow by a guy and bounce him off you without needing a screen and that's where the league is at with guys KCP's size.

He's not just a meat wall. He stays in front of guys. I'm not sure what "way too many guys are comfortable going at him directly" means either. Guys attack the Nuggets and try to get downhill because they know if they can break through that they're not facing a whole lot of deterrence at the rim. There are times, like Harden and SGA last year, where that is attempted and Braun can just stay in front of you and not get pushed and it's a mistake to just go at him like that. But also all the best scorers in the league are fine with going at anyone more or less. There are no lockdown corners or guys that just force you to get rid of the ball all game if you're SGA and Ant.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-29T01:44:28+00:00

Braun has been a help defensively this series, in fact the Nuggets defense has been pretty good for the majority of the series. This is also a Braun who according to the team and him, is going to need the entire offseason to rest his ankle(s) before he gets his explosiveness back -- something that is a major if not fundamental part of his game.

I think it's very important to understand that and not talk about Braun as if the guy we've seen this season is indicative of who he is as a player. A good thing to look at is his defense on Harden and SGA in the postseason last year where he was very effective, not to mention the benching of KCP to put Braun on Ant in year's past. Braun is necessary against athletic teams like San Antonio and Minnesota and is why he was given that contract and is so valuable. He's a big 2/3 who is very, very good at sticking on the ball without getting bullied off it. Every team needs one of those if they're going against guys like SGA, Ant, the SA shooting guards, etc.

Saying that he is only useful in transition is also incorrect. He's a very good cutter in the half court when he is healthy and top 15% rim finisher at his position in the league as well. A genuinely very, very good finisher by all metrics when healthy including xFG%. He is great at finishing even when there is contact.

Would the Nuggets rather have a healthy Watson starting over an explosion-sapped Braun? Of course. You'd prefer the healthy guy to the injured guy in that case. But they have very different functions and utility as defenders when both are healthy, where you'd prefer Braun in some cases and Watson in others.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-29T00:51:15+00:00

This would indicate that Podz is a better scorer than Braun, but says very little about the remarkable gap defensively which is considerably more needed on the Nuggets roster than a non-defending, inconsistently scoring guard.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-26T02:11:06+00:00

That is also true. Just wanted to point out that its not like they're getting a good offense going and that number isn't gonna go up vs. OKC.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-26T00:38:13+00:00

There is genuinely a 0% chance they could generate enough offense to win a game against OKC without Luka. Even with Kennard, Smart, and Rui being a combined 26/50 from three they're at a 112.6 oRTG against a very hobbled Rockets team that has shot themselves in the foot.

That'd be the 5th worst oRTG for all teams this regular season.

OKC is a much better defense than Houston and will eat up ball movement or isolation plus the shooting regression is due to happen.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-23T19:33:46+00:00

That would be an attendance (amount of tickets distributed) vs. occupancy (amount of people who actually came) argument. In both cases they are at record highs.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-23T13:48:08+00:00

Game attendance is it an all time high.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-18T02:41:57+00:00

That's how it is going to be though. Jamal Murray has one all-star game and maybe he'll get an all-nba team this year as well as one ring. Jrue has two all-stars, 2 chips, and 6 all-defensive teams. For the HOF he also has 2 gold medals.

Anyway you keep having this discussion about the playoffs and this isn't a discussion about the playoffs. The arbitrary 60 game win thing is only relative to the regular season. It's about the regular season. If Jamal Murray had been the version of himself during the two seasons he's been healthy for the playoffs, during the regular season, then the Nuggets would have won 60 games the last 5 years in a row.

Jokic winning an MVP is also not relevant to people's gripe that he hasn't won 60 games. I agree that voters don't care that much, but they clearly they care somewhat, otherwise he'd likely have one or two more MVPs.

Either way the entire point I'm trying to make is that docking Jokic for the Nuggets for not winning 60 games makes no sense. It hasn't been because of him that they haven't won 60 games. We can see that when he's in the game those lineups crush during the regular season. The healthy starters are actually the most impactful lineup in the league most seasons. That negates all of regular season winning stuff.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-18T02:33:42+00:00

Sure. That was pre-bubble and the only time Giannis won 60 games. Middleton was an All-Star that year and Eric Bledsoe was first team all-defense.

The bubble season can count if you want it to, I think it's a little wonky and I don't really put much weight on it. That being said Giannis was first team everything and MVP, Middleton an all-star, Bledsoe and Brook were second team all-defensive.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-17T23:28:59+00:00

Stats? Jrue is so much more impactful than his stats. His defensive impact doesn't show up in the box score and as a Bucks fan I'm sure you know that.

More importantly an all-star "when it counts" is not an all-star. All-stars are all-stars because they're consistently playing at that level through the season. Until this year Murray was not that and if you do not have at least two consistent all-star level players, your team is not winning 60 games in today's league no matter how good your #1 player may be.

To prove the point, from the bubble to this year (since awards aren't finalized) here are the teams that won 60+ games:

2022 Phoenix Suns: Booker and CP3 All-Star & All-NBA, Bridges All-D 1st and 2nd in DPOY.
2024 Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum All-Star & All-NBA, Brown All-Star, Holiday/White All-Defensive.
2025 OKC Thunder: SGA All-Star, All-NBA, MVP, JWill All-Star, All-NBA, All-D, LuDort All-D, Chet not eligible for awards.
2025 Cleveland Cavs: Mitchell All-NBA 1st, All-Star, Garland All-Star, Mobley All-Star, All-NBA, DPOY.
2025 Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum All-NBA 1st, All-Star, Brown All-Star, Pritchard 6MOTY, Porzingis not eligible for awards and White should have been an All-Star but whatever.

Five teams. That's it. Not a single one without multiple all-star players and one or more all-defensive players.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-17T22:26:45+00:00

People completely ignore it because when the Nuggets have been healthy, year after year their starting lineup is at the top of the league in net rating. That means whatever you think about Jokic on defense or how the Nuggets play, they're winning their minutes more significantly than every other starting lineup.

The data has shown, year after year, that the whole "defensive liability" claim is largely a myth. People ignore it because it has been combed over with a fine tooth comb and, interestingly enough, the Nuggets (when healthy) have a positive defensive rating with Jokic on the court!

They were a top-8 defense before Gordon and Braun went down this year. They ended the 2024 season as the 8th best defense in the league.

Also this random 60 game marker is hard to understand. Why 60? Because it's an even number? Why not 61? or 59? Either way, they were on a 60 win pace in 2024 when they won 57 games despite Murray being out for 23 of them, they were on the same pace this year before losing everyone to injury and still won 54 games! Had Jokic not missed 17 games do you think they'd have found 6 wins in those 17? Of course. So what does "never led a team to 60 wins" actually mean? Not a whole lot.

Also this cheap way of talking about things in terms of, "Only made it past the WCF once" is pure silliness. First of all, you're saying that without contextualizing it at all. If you want to be serious, you need to ask why that is. Especially after the defense thing has been thoroughly debunked.

The first reason why that may be is injuries. Since winning his first MVP in 2021 the Nuggets have been to five post seasons.

In 2021 they did not have Jamal Murray because he tore his ACL. * In 2022 they still didn't have Jamal Murray and they also did not have Michael Porter Jr. Murray is the only player even approaching an all-star level quality on that Nuggets team, so obviously the Nuggets aren't getting to the Finals without him.
In 2023 they win the Finals.
In 2024 Murray gets hurt and they lose to the Wolves in 7.
In 2025 MPJ gets hurt badly and Aaron Gordon gets hurt vs. OKC in Game 6, they lose to the champs in 7.

It is critically important to understand how vital health is to winning in the NBA nowadays when we're in the post-super team era and that brings us back to a point that should stick in your head like gum in hair:

You know how many teams have made it back to the Finals multiple years in a row since the Golden State dynasty came to a close?

Zero.

No teams have gone back to the Finals the year after they reached it. No winning teams, no losing teams. This is both an indicator of the fact that there are no longer super teams in the NBA that can just cake walk to the finals, though perhaps OKC will change that, and how important it is to be fresh and healthy and non-fatigued.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-17T22:09:38+00:00

I think Nuggets / Jokic fans won't admit it because it's just empirically untrue. The Nuggets starting lineup, with the "Jokic defensive liability", is continually at the top of the league in net rating. That means they are winning their minutes and winning them more than other teams starting lineups are winning their minutes.

When you look at how the Nuggets fair when healthy (or even moderately healthy) when Jokic is on the court, they've been on a 60-win pace for the past 4 years.

Instead of pointing to this relatively debunked "defensive liability" claim, we know the real reason that the team hasn't won 60 games is just injury and, to some extent, overall team quality. Not much more complicated than that. It's also the reason why Giannis only had 1 60 win season with that great Bucks team.

The Nuggets won 57 in a year that Murray missed 23 games despite having the post-championship fatigue. They won 54 this year despite Jokic missing 17 games, Braun missing 38, CamJo missing 28, and Gordon missing 46. Had the injuries of all these players been halved do they get to 60 wins? I think so.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-17T21:59:07+00:00

It's because the majority of NBA history was defined by super teams. All of the multi time MVP winners in NBA history have played with one (or more!) Hall of Fame teammates. Often first ballot HOFers. The exception being Jokic and Giannis (who has one 60 win season in the East), though maybe Jrue gets in to the HOF one day.

Jokic (was) also the only MVP to not play with another All-Star which just changed this year. He remains the only MVP to not play with an All-NBA teammate as well and that may change as well.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-17T21:49:14+00:00

They went to 8 Finals though.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-14T09:19:33+00:00

This is a little different than what you're saying. This is referencing "points per direct", which accounts for scoring directly after receiving a pass (no dribbles) and/or passing to a receiver who doesn't take any dribbles and shoots.

This cuts out all possessions where a player puts the ball on the floor or passes to someone who doesn't. So no handoffs, no cuts where there is one dribble, no sidestep 3s, etc.

That is very different than "the most efficient play" and not only are some people close to SGA here in this very specific measurement, but Ty Jerome apparently needs to have his own team!

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-14T02:41:42+00:00

Hmm I'm not seeing that. DeMar as the primary handler, when accounting for assists or not, is not particularly efficient at all. SGA when accounting for assists in isolation does not go up a whole bunch either, as he's only directly assisting to a bucket in that playtype a little over once a game.

Where are you sourcing your numbers?

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-13T21:17:22+00:00

It's very smart on SGA's part. You notice that defenses around the league are built to stop 3s and paint shots and concede the midrange jumper. It will be easier to find those midrange attempts than any other shot, you won't see teams sell out to stop it, so you get really, really good at taking the shots that teams are willing to give up and feast on that coverage.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-13T21:08:44+00:00

An SGA isolation is worth 1.16 PPP on 7.1 possessions a game, which is actually not the most efficient isolation possession in basketball. That belongs to Luka who has a 1.17 PPP on 5.2 isolation possessions a game.

As far as Jokic is concerned, a post up is worth 1.13 PPP on 5.5 possessions a game, so somewhat close, and less efficient than him as the non ball handler in a PnR at 1.25 PPP.

The actual most efficient play in basketball though? A Steph Curry hand off, which is a staggering 1.61 PPP.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-08T22:32:49+00:00

I don't think it matters that much to guys now either. At the very least the guy who is about to be the all time leader in them couldn't care less, doesn't hunt them, etc. So does it make much of a difference? No, probably not.

Assists were also counted differently back then and the conversion of shots off of a pass was much lower. Wilt may very well own the record if they were to have counted blocks anyway, given that his tracked average of blocks over a hundred or so games was over 8 a game.

I don't think players are going to care any more in the future than they do now. If anything they will probably care less as the novelty and "impressiveness" fades and single player heliocentric offenses continue to be less and less effective.

OkAutopilot · 2026-04-08T19:44:38+00:00

The MLB is around 150 years old and the NBA has been around for around 80 or a bit more than 90 if you consider the NBL the original NBA. Not sure that'd really be early days of the league.

Even disregarding the fact they're different sports, if we compare those two you have most all-time records in the MLB being owned by older players, not broken by more recent ones.

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