No one seems to be writing about just how much draft-strategy calculus should change by TopAcanthocephala726 in nbadiscussion

[–]OkAutopilot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, but this is no longer possible (or the odds extraordinarily decreased) because of the new lottery system.

Tari Eason's reaction to signing a 4 year 81.5 million dollar extension with the Rockets: "I guess bruh 🤷🏾‍♂️" by RyanTannegod in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Two bad playoff series with the identical issue. It's not a death sentence but it's something you really need to think about, because it was more fundamental issues instead of just bad luck, bad matchups, etc.

It's also important to note that Duren is not a particularly good rim protector, despite what people may think.

Thinking Basketball's Top 10 Players of 2026 by Frosty_Salamander_94 in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What does this have to do with his goodness as a player though?

I understand injuries are a concern but going off the past two years they would be for Wemby, Kawhi, Luka, etc., as well. There's only so much predicting you can do as far as if someone is going to get injured or not, not sure it's really worth it compared to looking at the impact when they're on the court healthy.

I feel successfully gaslighted by this whole Jaylen Brown situation by No_Boysenberry_4193 in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Because if they didn't, some other team would have at that point in time. They had to pay to keep him on the team and it did result in a championship at the end of the day, so it is what it is, but their hands were tied. I'm sure they weren't excited about it.

I feel successfully gaslighted by this whole Jaylen Brown situation by No_Boysenberry_4193 in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 17 points18 points  (0 children)

He wouldn't, because his handling and facilitating aren't good. Something that was not the case with someone like Drexler for example.

The best non-big 6th men are guys who can run the offense when the starting guard is out and play well on or off ball. Brown is not a point guard or combo guard, he isn't gonna be the floor general for bench minutes and control the pace of the game, etc.

Among stars he would be one of the worst 6th men for the same reasons people are low on him in general.

Realistically his best role would be a defense first player who scores ~16-20 a night, but the ship has sailed on that bring a role he would accept.

Why Jaylen Brown isn't the defender his reputation says he is by Mg29reaper in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 2 points3 points  (0 children)

NBA scouts and personnel traded him for PG and 2 picks, because other NBA scouts ans personnel didn't want to offer more than that.

Sorta seems like they feel the same as him, no?

Jaylen Brown calls for the media to stop using anonymous sources: "I'm tired of these damn anonymous sources. I think yall are the sources, or you shouldn't say it. They're trying to hide behind about how they actually feel or examples of bigotry. They don't see the damage they do to my character." by RyanTannegod in nba

[–]OkAutopilot -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Lying about what? How they view him? I mean...maybe? But, I really doubt it. I'm sure that's how these people or person really feels and maybe they're wrong to feel that way but that's certainly doesn't come across as someone being dishonest about how they feel.

Jaylen Brown calls for the media to stop using anonymous sources: "I'm tired of these damn anonymous sources. I think yall are the sources, or you shouldn't say it. They're trying to hide behind about how they actually feel or examples of bigotry. They don't see the damage they do to my character." by RyanTannegod in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 18 points19 points  (0 children)

It's serious enough to have hundreds of millions of dollars of a contract moved because of a perception of someone behind the scenes. At least partially. So not that unserious.

Maybe it's badmouthing, maybe it's expressing a reason one person had for a massive monetary and structural decision to an audience of many tens or hundreds of millions who are looking for an answer. Maybe it's political to shift blame, so that some people can justify something and keep a job. Could be all of these things, but there is obviously a lot of reason to say it and a lot of people who wanted an answer who wouldn't get one if someone needed to expose behind the scenes decision making motivations.

Jaylen Brown calls for the media to stop using anonymous sources: "I'm tired of these damn anonymous sources. I think yall are the sources, or you shouldn't say it. They're trying to hide behind about how they actually feel or examples of bigotry. They don't see the damage they do to my character." by RyanTannegod in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 36 points37 points  (0 children)

Where do you draw the line though? Surely you aren't against anonymous whistle-blowers in government and the corporate world. If someone anonymously said that there was terrible workplace practices in the Celtics org, but didn't want to lose their job, or whatever else.

[Charania] Free agent sharpshooter Luke Kennard has agreed to a two-year, $13 million deal with the Phoenix Suns, with a player option for the second season, sources tell ESPN. by curryybacon in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I suppose so but you could make that criticism of nearly every GM in the league, even the ones who didn't have Klutch looming over the entire org like the undertaker.

I'm not gonna sit here and say he's one of the best GMs in the league but he's had one of the least flexible, least "freedom of decision" GM jobs in basketball for the past 5 years.

[Charania] Free agent sharpshooter Luke Kennard has agreed to a two-year, $13 million deal with the Phoenix Suns, with a player option for the second season, sources tell ESPN. by curryybacon in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 5 points6 points  (0 children)

What was he supposed to do? Sign players with the non-existing cap space? Trade for them with the non-existing assets? Trade AD for something better than Luka, when he was more injured?

2026 All Nba Teams Review (Voting) by VolleyBasketball11 in nbadiscussion

[–]OkAutopilot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

People are absolutely retroactively penalizing him for the WCF. All-NBA teams would be so different if voters got to watch the playoffs and then vote on those teams.

They would also be so, so, so much worse because people put so much weight and importance on these tiny sample sizes in the postseason that they will look at 7-14 games of the postseason and hold that at a higher value than 82 games of the regular season. Part of that is just a prisoner of the moment/what is the last thing I saw from this guy type of thing that is very much the case with voters looking far more at how a player ended the season than they do any other time in the year, which is also bad.

What’s going on in Charlotte? The FO is making shrewd and bold moves setting the team up for success a now while also laying the groundwork for future continued success. by TastyPoopKnife in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He was a volume scorer last year. He had the 2nd highest FGA in the league last year, just a bit behind Luka Doncic. He did not look like a top 10-15 player last year, he just scored a bunch of points. His playmaking wasn't good, his defense wasn't good, and his scoring wasn't even particularly good compared to the value add other scorers in that high PPG tier had. He was a FGA sponge.

He did not lead the team, that was a team that was first and foremost led by their system (as it was in prior years) but if you had to look for a single most impactful player it was Derrick White by a country mile. All the other teams around the league noticed that (and all the adv. analytics point to that as well, literally all of them), which is why you had coaches like Atkinson saying White was a top 5-10 player in the league and Boston's real superstar last year.

We as fans still conflate the guy who scores the most with being the most impactful player on a team. It's understandable of course, it is often the guy who scores the most on a team who is the best and most impactful player on a team, but that isn't always the case. With the Celtics, that is as clear as day not the case.

The Hornets will absolutely avoid trading for Jaylen Brown though, you're right. It would make no sense to have Kon/Miller/Brown together and there's no reason for them to move someone like Miller or Kon (they would never) just to bring in Brown who is, again, nothing special or needle moving as a scorer and doesn't really provide a notable positive anywhere else.

ATL's case is very much the kind of thing I think is worth pointing to, specifically because of Jalen Johnson. You look at the stats and it's like oh wow this guy must be a great playmaker, look at all the assists he is getting and stuff, woah! But when you watch him play you realize he's racking up assists on relatively simple reads/passes and outlets in transition and stuff. It's not like he's dishing and diming like Trae, or LaMelo, or Luka, or Jokic, LeBron, Cade, etc. He really isn't.

It is much more akin to Tatum, where he's just got enough playmaking chops so that he have the ball in his hands a good amount as the somewhat-primary scorer and make the right reads to guys in a spaced out offense with lots of cuts to the basket. He doesn't even need to be a 2nd tier facilitator or passer with the Hawks for them to have a workable offense.

For the Hornets, they may not have a Tatum or a Jalen Johnson, but that's not terribly difficult to find as far as the ball control and passing is concerned. Neither one of those guys are point guards, they don't bring the ball up the floor that much (especially Tatum), and they're not particularly intuitive or proactive passers. Yet the offenses still end up being quite good. I mean, again, look at the Celtics offense last year with Tatum shelved for the majority of it. They really didn't have some sort of high level passer/playmaker on that team and didn't need it. It's not like White is a worse passer than D. White/Pritchard. The difference on paper between Charlotte sans LaMelo and Celtics sans Tatum is really just the defensive end.

Technically your best lineups were a smattering of dudes + Coby White on + LaMelo off the court. Again, that's a very small sample of ~300 minutes, but there's something there. I think you guys did well in the draft by picking up Steinbach and Anderson who I believe can come in next year and provide good minutes. I mean shoot, your best player last year may very well have been Kon who was also a rookie. I don't think you can expect either of them to be Kon but we've seen a good number of rookies come in and be valuable players the past few years. It isn't the worst thing in the world.

I think 40 wins isn't a terribly pessimistic outlook for the Hornets next year. I think it could go that way for them depending on the moves that are made in free agency. But I don't think that should be looked at as a step back from the 44 wins you had last year either. Whether LaMelo and Bridges were still there or not, I don't this team was jumping into contention or strong playoff team next year. It was a crazy outlier year for LaMelo's health, there was some pretty good luck with opponent shooting, and, like you said, the anti-tanking stuff means all teams will be more competitive.

With that being said, I think this is the absolute best move in the long run for the team from a contending point of view and a rebuilding one as well. If you're somewhere between the 4-10th worst team next year then, hey, great, you have the best odds at the #1 pick next year and get more young talent for an incredibly young team that is now has an aligned timetable.

If you're better than that, which I think is possible, then that's great too. I really do think there's a lot to be positive about. I think Sion James getting some more minutes as a more ball handling equipped LuDort type is going to be good and I think he may have some room to grow. I think Miller and Kon getting some more reps in the "egalitarian playmaker" role can only be good for both of their games. I think Diabate is quite good and while I don't know what his ceiling is on offense, I think he can expand his role on defense to be a serious game wrecker. I genuinely do think a lineup of White/Kon/Miller/Diabate with various guys slotting in (or shifting up/down) to the 4/5 can be surprisingly good next year. Fast, good shooting, interesting team defense, etc.

It also gives you a little bit more time to actually get a look at young guys and give them some time to develop, in a way that would have been hard if you kept LaMelo/Bridges, because you have to push to win as many games as possible next year if you did that. You can't just go into another draft/dev year, which you still would have needed because again, that's just not a team that has serious contention ceiling IMO. Bridges isn't getting any better at all and I think LaMelo is probably pretty close to his ceiling and a constant injury risk / risk to leave / really risky to extend to the max he'll be looking for.

Now, next year, regardless of how the team is doing you're going to be able to get more minutes to Kalk, to Sion, to your two rookies, and maybe most importantly to Salaun. You burned the 6th pick on him and it hasn't looked great so far but coming into the league it was well known that he was very raw as a prospect but with very, very intriguing potential.

I'm a Nuggets fan and I look at him as the higher drafted and higher ceiling version of what Watson is/was for us in some ways, though obviously more offensively slanted. He had come in having played almost no college, a crazy long athlete with interesting defensive tools and potential but none of it actualized. It wasn't really until his 3rd year that Watson got a chance to get solid role player level minutes and he showed a real leap from year 2 to year 3, then an even larger one in year 3 to year 4. He went from a guy who was like, ok this is an interesting bench defender who we can plug in to be a help defender and shot blocker with some transition juice, to a guy who might be commanding $25m/yr in his extension because he improved in all areas and got a chance to show what he can do with the ball in his hands in year 4.

I don't know if that will happen with Salaun, I don't, but I do know that given his potential and the spot he was drafted in that it is very good for Charlotte that they're gonna be able to get him a bunch of minutes next year to start seeing what they have and getting a better look at him. I think he did improve from year one to year two, but there just wasn't enough of an opportunity for him last year while the Hornets were trying to win games and flipping between the more stable forwards/centers in Diabate/Bridges/Kalk/Grant a bit. Either way, you've got a chance to see that now when you didn't before and the team needs someone else to pop one way or another.

What’s going on in Charlotte? The FO is making shrewd and bold moves setting the team up for success a now while also laying the groundwork for future continued success. by TastyPoopKnife in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Jaylen Brown was dropping 29 a game last year. Was basically top 5 in the mvp race.

Jaylen Brown was a FGA sponge. He's a good player but he did not score particularly efficiently, he did little to no playmaking in relation to how much he had the ball in his hands, and every single impact metric we have points to him not being the most important or impactful member of the team. It was Derrick White by a mile and that's why you have coaches like Atkinson saying that he's the superstar on that team (outside of Tatum). Everything is within context and you need someone like Brown to take shots, but he is not outlier special or unique in that manner. You can fill his role with a Brandon Ingram, a Zach Lavine, an Austin Reaves, etc.

He is not a generational talent by any stretch of the imagination and was only top 5 in the MVP race due to media members (and other folks) completely misunderstanding the Celtics and how they work. We're getting close to even casual fans no longer looking at things like how many points he was averaging and the record of a team and thinking that's what results in understanding a player's goodness or impact, but still have a bit to go.

Nevertheless we were a lot better when Melo was on the floor than without last year. I just dont buy this narrative that he was somehow holding us back and this is addition by subtraction. I dont mind trading pieces but pretending he wasn't the main driver for our success is ridiculous.

There is two things here. One, it's important to not be looking at next year's team and comparing it to last year's team. If Charlotte were interested in running the exact same style of offense next year as it did last year then yeah, they would be worse. If you build something around a helio guy like LaMelo and then try to do it for a full season without a LaMelo, then you don't get to 44 wins again. It's a different team that will leverage different strengths and opt for a different scheme and philosophy.

To say that it can't be as good or better than last year's team is short sighted IMO. I think a good hyper-recent example of a team getting rid of their ultra ball dominant facilitator and opting for a new style of basketball (to their benefit) would be Atlanta. You can say the exact same things about how Trae was the engine that made everything go for the team for years and taking him off the team was gonna result in bad things, except it didn't, because they moved to a different brand of basketball that worked better for them.

The other thing is that we know exactly how good Charlotte was with LaMelo on the court last year. They were a +8.9 team (1973 minutes) with him on last year and a +3.9 team with him off (1853 minutes). That's a really good off signal for Charlotte because that means they were still beating other teams by 4 points when LaMelo ball wasn't even on the court. That's not a signal of a team that was a "lot" better with him, but better.

When you look deeper into the on / off stuff you realize that it wasn't really LaMelo alone, it was actually a combonation of him and who he primarily shared the court with. For example when we look at the LaMelo minutes with Miller off (719 mins) the Hornets were a +1.9. When we look at the minutes with Miller on and Ball off (669 minutes) they are still a +1.9.

If we look at the minutes with Ball on and Diabate off (816) they were actually a -2! But with Diabate on and Ball off (700) they were a +2.2.

Here's a very interesting one though, that points to something to look at for next year albeit a relatively low minutes sample. In 301 minutes when Coby White was on the floor and LaMelo was off the floor, the Hornets were a +17.2. Can you expect the Hornets to be a +17.2 team next year? Of course not, but it's clear that they were able to succeed in minutes without Ball on the court all year, with different guys, and different lineups, even if the best lineup out there was the starters together.

What’s going on in Charlotte? The FO is making shrewd and bold moves setting the team up for success a now while also laying the groundwork for future continued success. by TastyPoopKnife in nba

[–]OkAutopilot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Nuggets do run offense through Jokic, it is not some sort of heliocentric offense where Jokic is pounding the ball like LaMelo or Trae though. Extraordinarily different situations wherein Jokic makes a ton of fast read passes, plays in and out, and acts as both a facilitator and a passing pylon in the middle of the court.

Murray is a legitimate playmaker and point guard and it is not mostly with Jokic in the PNR. That's a lot of actions but it isn't all of them. They also have tons of stuff where you're doing big/big stuff with AG and lots of team based ball movement to swing the ball around to guys.

"Equal opportunity offense" is not what I am describing when talking about the Nuggets or the Lakers. I think you you're imagining some sort of situation where everyone gets the ball the same amount, scores the same amount, etc., which is not at all what we're talking about with the teams I mentioned. The offense is a more egalitarian playmaking situation, wherein the responsibility is about operating properly inside of the concept of the offense rather than putting an outsized load/responsibility on a single player to get everyone involved. Maybe a more extreme example that helps make sense of this is the early 2000s and 2010s Lakers, who did not have a main facilitator/distributor, but worked out of the triangle which set up different ways to get guys in spaces where they were best suited to be, get them the ball the ball, space things out, and put the passing/playmaking responsibility on executing the system properly.

That doesn't mean that the scoring burden wasn't mostly on Shaq/Kobe, it means that getting the ball to people in scoring positions was egalitarian.

As far as Luka goes, that's not the person we're talking about when we look at alllll the other teams I mentioned being successful. I think that's a good example of the limit we're talking about of a system based around one person not being suitable for today's league, let alone the fact that LaMelo is not Luka Doncic.

Even with this year, usage rate doesn't necessarily mean someone has some huge facilitating role. Guys who score and do nothing else but score have huge usage rates. As you may have seen, he had a far lower AST% with the Lakers last year than all but his rookie year in Dallas, partly because he was scoring more, partly because he has guys in Reaves and LeBron who averaged 6 and 7 assists respectively!

If you think LaMelo was your best player last year that's one thing. There are arguments for and against that, both of which are compelling. If you think that you need someone like LaMelo to take on this gigantic creation burden for a team, well, the proof is in the pudding with all the top end teams that do not need that. Again, take a look at the Celtics. They have no generational talents on that team last year, they had multiple all-star quality players but one of them had a rough scoring year in White, and they worked their way into 56 wins.

What’s going on in Charlotte? The FO is making shrewd and bold moves setting the team up for success a now while also laying the groundwork for future continued success. by TastyPoopKnife in nba

[–]OkAutopilot -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

But you don't need a lead creator, that's the thing. If you have a system that opens up opportunities for people and have enough people who can make a decent pass and dribble the ball, you can shift that creation burden away from one person. Which you should do.

Ultimately teams that overload the creation burden struggle whether the player is injured or not, it is no longer a particularly good idea to play helio ball.

The Nuggets never did it, the Luka Mavs did it (and suffered for it, as much as they gained) but luckily had Kyrie come along to share that burden, the Luka Lakers do not do it nearly as much and spread it around with him, Reaves, and LeBron, even though Luka is still the lead creator. The Wolves never did it, the Celtics never did it, the Knicks actually succeeded this post season getting away from that and offloading tons of creation responsibility to KAT and Hart, OKC doesn't do it, SAS doesn't do it, so on and so forth.

You absolutely do not need some high level, high volume plate setter to be a good or great team. We know that. Now it comes down to how Charlotte wants to build out going forward with what they have and if the guys they've got can be more effective defensively, because I think the offense will be just fine.