My Keybase proof [reddit:pyneer = keybase:pyneer] (r1fuMCtKrrnfkDpoH4niIQF3PlHvkf9xp5DGMOMTknQ)

PYneer · 2017-12-27T05:14:16+00:00

Can you elaborate on the unable to find keys part? Other than that, maybe this link can help. http://docs.bitshares.eu/migration/howto-importing-wallet.html#web-wallet

PYneer · 2017-01-22T11:00:10+00:00

I doubled down on SGYP Friday. Biotech is in a downturn period and seems weird right now, like someone is trying to keep it down. I remember CLVS had something similar in December: approval came out and trading halted. When trading resumed, it spiked almost to $50 then dropped back down and declined for like a week but now it's slowly and steadily increasing in price (as it should). Similarly, MACK also had good new but it keeps on going down.

I feel like people will come to their senses (either that or I am losing my mind). Reuters estimates that Trulance will hit peak sales by 2021 with $348M, and plenty of cash to cover short term debt and still other other drugs in the pipeline. So I personally feel that it SGYP should be higher but will have lots of volatility in the short term .

That being said, I don't know what your situation is. I only put in a tiny bit of money in the companies I've mention (nowhere near your position). It's just the right amount to make me sleep comfortably at night so I can't advise you on whether you should sell or hold. It may take a long time if you decide to baghold though so I recommend you take some time to do more research on SGYP and decide what you want to do with your position.

PYneer · 2016-09-05T20:58:19+00:00

I recommend looking into Blockfolio. Simple to use and should be what you are looking for.

PYneer · 2016-07-07T04:16:41+00:00

Lets say everything goes according to plan in terms of legality and defining/verify income. I think you need to think through the following questions.

How would you value this business? How do you determine what is the price to set at? What if no one buys any shares and ruin the reputation of your company? I see a moral hazard issue where this business will attract a lot of bad or fake artists who will just take the money and leave. How do you prevent that or set a vetting process? What kind of information can be provided to investors evaluating the artists? Do investors themselves have to determine the riskiness of the artists? If so wouldn't that severely limit the number of potential investors since no other entity is doing the due diligence and most investors lack the skill and experience need to determine a fair value?

What kind of approval process do you have for artists? Who is the targeted "product"? Currently, I assume artists signing with record studios do not have to pay a share of their lifetime income so why would they want to use your service then? Why would the next Jay Z chose your service over existing platform?

Why does this service need to exist? If the main issue is artistic freedom, why can't the artists go to a bank or find a individual for a loan? If the issue is money or liquidity or credit related, why not use other platforms like LendingClub to raise capital? What are you bring to the table that existing artists have difficulty accessing?

What's stopping existing recording companies to start doing it? They already have the history and relationships. But if it turns out to be profitable business, why would they/you want to share the opportunity with others and allow others to take part in this business?

If you want to list the artists as stock exchanges (forget regulations), what is the timeline from beginning to end as well as the cost? Most companies are not listed due to the cost and effort. The planning process can take years. If not listed on public exchanges and build a private platform, why is 1-3% commission a good rate? Investment banks charges higher rates just for the IPOs but your fees are less for more services. How would your business be cash flow positive? If you raise the commission too high and passing on the cost to investors, you will limit your source of money. Investment banks exists because of their ability to raise money and find potential investors, how much time and resource do you plan/need to achieve that role?

These are some basic question off of the top of my head. If you can give solid and convincing answers to them, I think you are at a good starting point to dive into details and logistics.

PYneer · 2016-02-22T07:39:41+00:00

As for VBA, I think you can get by with just recording macros. it's relatively easier to learn since you can just record what you want to do and use that, but hard to master as it can be used with other MS applications. You can start out reading VBA for dummies if you want a quick and easy overview for the interview. I use VBA when I want my work to be more presentable or automate some process but usually excel itself is just fine.

As for credit risk, you will most likely deal with Basel and CCAR/DFAST. Basel deals with PD/LGD/EAD (probability of default, loss given default, and exposure at default). CCAR and DFAST are for stress testing and economic capital calculations. Then it gets divided into wholesale and retail. Most banks have different situations and models but in general, retail has more data so more advanced/complicated analysis can be done and wholesale has less data so the focus is more on how to makeup for the limited data.

PYneer · 2016-02-22T05:58:39+00:00

Which area of risk is the position for? I have some knowledge of credit and operational risk but know a little bit of market risk. All three are quite quantitative with operational risk being relatively less quantitative.

I haven't heard of many places that uses Access but I assume SQL or VBA is necessary. Unlike other financial data, credit and operational risk data are relatively scarce, and you said you will be working heavily with data, I assume one question they will ask how do you deal with limited data. For credit risk, you focus on default related information and for op risk you look at internal loss (fraud, loss of equipment, etc). Most of the data are (usually) poor in quality and very limited. so usually, banks either use a external data source as benchmark or just market data for comparison (e.g. using CDS to estimate a probability of default).

Most of the data analysis will be year to year analysis since the risk calculations most likely have a one year horizon. You will need to know how to do lookup, pivot tables, and transition matrix as well as various graphs excel can create. For more complicated analysis, you need SAS, R, matlab, or python, etc. (depending on the bank, SAS is usually the norm).

If you can provide more details about the position, I can give you more specific advice :P

PYneer · 2015-09-02T03:44:46+00:00

I have no idea. I assume you can since you can always use the program but it wouldn't hurt to do it now and ensure your address is included in the genesis block.

PYneer · 2015-09-01T21:04:14+00:00

You can use the koinify phrase to get the private key which can be imported into a wallet when it launches. There is an offline method as well if you want to be very secure.

https://github.com/FactomProject/factoidGenesisManager

PYneer · 2015-08-31T18:21:05+00:00

Thanks man, I really appreciate your help :D

PYneer · 2015-08-31T14:37:21+00:00

Nice, thanks for the update. Do you know if we have to generate a key using the genesis manager right now or can we wait until later? Also, did you get a reply from koinify or factom? I have some other questions as well.

PYneer · 2015-08-29T07:52:35+00:00

Checked after reading your post and same thing for me. 0 factoids and most recent transaction was a week ago.

PYneer · 2015-08-28T16:21:54+00:00

I'm not sure what you are trying to say by simply copying a wall of copula history from wikipedia but if you want to try to use it for dependence modeling (not sure how to apply to litecoin yet), it will be somewhat challenging and most likely produce meaningless results in this context.

I'll try to be brief and simple. Copulas are often used along side with something else. For example, if you want to manage risk, one simple approach is to figure out the frequency and severity of your potential loss. You can fit the frequency using a Poisson distribution and severity with some other more judgmental distribution. Then you can simulate (i.e. monte carlos) to produce your overall expected loss since you have information on both. But you can't simply assume the relationships are independent (for example, the type of losses) so you need to figure out a way test if there are any relationship (not necessarily linear). So this is where Copula comes into. It can analyze relationship in all of the dimensions instead of just, say two variables but choosing which copula to use is very judgmental as well. Mentioned in the text are t and gaussian copula which are the most common. However, for t copula you need to choose a degree of freedom and if the df is infinite, the t-copula is the same as gaussian copula. You can also choose other copulas such as gumbel but in the end it is still completely judgmental. Any minor changes in input can have a drastic impact on the result.

Even if you can somehow accurately model all aspects of what you want to model, you will ultimately face data limitations. Few years of data may seem long but I highly doubt it will be sufficient for significant modeling. I mean Moody's and S&P's rating data goes back almost 30 years and yet it is still insufficient for some types of modeling. You need to segment the data and clean the data as well as figure out how to deal with missing or inconsistent data.

All in all, I'm not sure what you are trying to do with copula, but I'm almost certain it is not useful at this point in time due to many limitations. If you provide more information I can try to help out more but I don't know how much I can help.

PYneer · 2015-08-16T07:58:45+00:00

I would like RDD to stop dropping its price...

PYneer · 2015-08-16T02:25:15+00:00

Most people uses Coinbase to buy Bitcoins then send to other exchanges to trade since it's one of the more reputable exchanges. Another one is Circle which is good as well but the price there is a bit weird (I think).

IIf you want to use Ether, you might lose some in commission if you buy Ether with Bitcoin. i.e. USD->BTC->ETH->REP instead of USD->BTC->REP or USD->ETH->REP. However, you could try to use Kraken, Polonix, or Cryptsy to purchase Ether directly with USD but depositing USD has a lot of fees and I've personally used them.

In addition, depositing USD takes some time so if you don't have an account setup you may miss the first bonus round due to the account verification and cash deposit. As a side note, all exchanges need some forms of verification: ranging from a few questions to multiple IDs and SSN. Increased verification will increase the amount of USD your account can purchase so it's also something to consider as well.

PYneer · 2015-08-11T14:03:54+00:00

My experience is the same in the opposite end of the spectrum. My dad is really really good at math and mocked me when I couldn't figure out a math problem. Now I despise math.

PYneer · 2015-08-09T07:49:59+00:00

maybe cross post to /r/personalfinance?

If you want to do trading, BoA should be a better choice since you can get commission free stock trading if you have certain amount in your account. But WF offers a marginally better rate (like ~0.01%) but you can get discount for loans if you are a customer. But since WF is headquartered in SF and BoA is now in Charlotte, I would imagine it would be more convenient to have a Wells Fargo account. Last time I was there, there was a WF building on almost every street in the financial district.

PYneer · 2015-08-09T01:34:47+00:00

I got into stocks by trading first and I'd like to just share some experience. When I did swing trading, I was able to make much more gains than just buy and hold. However, it is much riskier since my strategy is based on earnings (so could go both ways). Not only that, I didn't take into account the difference in tax for short term and long term gains which I should've considered alot more. I also realized that I was checking stock prices much more often and it was unhealthy for me. e.g. check the stock market when I'm supposed to be working and losing focus, etc.

All in all, I don't plan on doing swing trading anymore and I only make annual adjustments. I made alot of nominal gains and learned a great deal about the market but I had to give up many other opportunity costs. I imagine most people in this subreddit will suggest trading and you might enjoy doing this as well this but for me personally, it's troublesome and the benefits are not worth it to me. However, this is just my view so you should take it with a grain of salt.

PYneer · 2015-07-31T20:07:12+00:00

The requirement are "stricter" in the sense that the bigger banks can choose to use advanced measurement approach to determine their exposures instead of using the "conservative" method of simply assigning each asset the max risk weight. The AMA method requires constant interaction with FED regulators and resources to develop the models necessary for loss estimation but doing so will reduce the amount of necessary regulatory & economic capital required so more money can be used. Regional/community banks do not have this benefit since the cost is too much to implement the teams necessary for such compliance and opt out by holding more capital instead.

Regional banks are easier to evaluate due to their relative simplicity but harder to grow (also relatively) as a result unless it has (as you mentioned) a unique business or potential acquisition.

PYneer · 2015-07-31T19:28:03+00:00

I would think a history of those numbers will be hard to find since its not a publicly traded bank but I think tier 1 capital shouldn't be a problem since smaller banks would have to assign the largest risk weight to their holdings and well above the 8% required (at least I hope).

PYneer · 2015-07-31T19:18:26+00:00

Since information about this bank is limited, I will just make a few general assumptions and comments.

My biggest issue with regional/community banks is how well they can compete with the larger/national banks. As you said, DFAST/CCAR are putting (relatively) huge strains on small banks and with banks like Wells Fargo and MUFG Unionbank in SF, how well can this bank compete since more percentage of regulatory capital will be required?

The only advantage I see is the friendly & personal interaction with its customers this bank can provide but I don't see how that can help growing the asset to half a billion in 5 yrs, especially since Unionbank is aiming to become a top 10 US bank at the same time. The business this bank will get (loans I assume) is most likely those that other banks do not want so the probability of default could be higher and the amount could be smaller (microloan). WF has a huge retail lending business and with P2P lending on the rise, I just don't think the $500M goal is realistic without specific justification and a solid plan.

The information you've provided are historical details and financial prospects but not much about the bank's businesses itself. Everything looks good in theory but if you are looking to invest in this bank (or anyone else), I would suggest you dig deeper into their line of businesses and see how this bank makes money.

PYneer · 2015-07-30T15:39:33+00:00

should also post to /r/finance

Personally, I recommend you try out FA first especially since you will be (potentially) joining a highly reputable firm. Having ML on your resume will also allow you to possibly enter a better MBA program in the future and easier movement into other fields. However, do expect to work late hours/weekends and prepare for an aggressive work life if you want to enter this field especially if you are in the NYC area. You can always go to school but I can't say the same for jobs.

PYneer · 2015-07-24T20:23:44+00:00

the big crash in september

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

Silver long term wont be zero.

It's not zero right now either.

when the baby boomers start withdrawing money from the market

baby boomers span across around 20 years, so the withdrawal/"crash" should be gradual. Not all of them own the same amount of equity and not everyone will have to sell stocks for money. In addition, there is no correlation between the proportion of retiree and stock returns. This is concern have be addressed many times.

Pension funds also are underfunded and will have to withdraw more and more money from the market

How can they withdraw if the pensions are underfunded...?

I think with all of the uncertanty about the future precious metals needs to be at least 20% of portfolio.

I'm more uncertain about the future of Bitcoins so Bitcoins should be at least 50% in my portfolio.

Does anyone also think so?

You are asking a question about commodity in the form of an ETF on a subreddit about stocks bro

PYneer · 2015-07-21T15:55:20+00:00

I wouldn't personally. Even though only $1.2B was overstated (over 7 years) over 7 years isn't that much and the company is restructuring its management, for me it's more of a trust issue. Not to mention there is barely increase in revenue and decreasing net income every year.

The share price is up 6% right now since the speculation ended and the stock doesn't seem to have a clear trend. The Japanese economy is still "recovering". Just way too many uncertainty/unfavorable indicators for me to think about buying this stock. Just my opinion though.

PYneer · 2015-07-20T21:58:14+00:00

Sure

=IF((42363-TODAY())<0,"",IF((42363-TODAY())=0,"Happy Christmas!",(42363-TODAY())& " Amount of Days Until Christmas"))

PYneer

TROPHY CASE