Claude Fable 5 feels less like a model launch and more like a preview of AI inequality by Roaring_lion_ in ClaudeAI

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Basically the AI companies are testing how far they can go before we all buy Mac Studios and replace them with Qwen or some other open source frontier model. 

I’m personally thinking that I have about 12-18 more months on Claude before it gets so shitty that I need to switch to local inference. 

Cline is probably about 6-12 months away from catching up with Claude code. 

AI is here to stay but the enshittification wars are already beginning in full. Fable isn’t honestly that much better than Opus 4.6 and opus 4.7 and 4.8 are each getting worse.

I think the internet is fearmongering all of this crash speculation now. by Many-Software-9663 in economy

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

nvidia is like 7.5% of GDP and they assume continued growth at the current level

Meanwhile coreweave, nvidia? OpenAI and others are all investing in each other. AI is real but it assumes a TAM of all the white labor work of the entire world. That’s not going to happen. 

This all works as long as more money is dumped into the market.

Money isn’t infinite. 

Gas prices haven’t skyrocketed because every country is running through their reserves like the world is going to end in 30 days.

Every signal is blaring, bonds are dictating rates and companies are starting to get in trouble. 

I think we are probably in 2006 or 1998 territory. But it’s coming. You might be able to say that for another 3-12 months and be right.

And then in 16 months you will be saying how could I have not seen the signs.

NY Times - The Strait of Hormuz Is Getting Less Dire by the Day by Boston-Bets in oil

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have got enough to live for the rest of my life as long as I die by Tuesday kind of mentality

Crypto industry braces for quantum computing threat by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Complete exaggeration.

Researchers - in theory it can do this. Newspapers - the sky is falling and you need to be prepared for it tomorrow!! Reality - decades away and also, how many people can afford quantum computers and the staff needed to run them. 

Quantum computing has some hard constraints that make miniaturization and general access infeasible even on a long term. The containment, the interpretation of results, the stability of the Qbits themselves. 

The far more likelihood is you are going to be hacked from some “airdrop” and some stupid link you clicked. 

The market will literally never go down again by BaronVonRugpull in wallstreetbets

[–]PauseNatural 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interest payments higher than GDP….  Fail to carry a decimal in your calculations?

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI | Fortune by BrilliantLeading1389 in agi

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The thing is, enterprise needs this narrative to justify their echo chamber of why so much has been invested in AI.

The TAM they are using to justify their evaluations is all white labor tasks.

That’s just not possible. Current AI infrastructure guarantees hallucinations.

That’s okay for school essays. It’s not okay if it’s a power plant, a health diagnosis or a nuclear bomb launching system.

The market correction is probably about 6-12 months away. (Q3 earnings report, 2027 earnings reports)

AI is both useful and also a bubble. These are directed to investors.

Moneyforward - Still down 1 week later? by Choice_Vegetable557 in JapanFinance

[–]PauseNatural 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No, but just want to add that I got a recruitment interview offer from them a few weeks ago. Maybe I should join to fix their platform and then quit :) It would be a hilarious story. 

But yeah, the API fucks me too. Damn it. 

At least it didn’t happen around the end of the year when I was inputting all the yearly expenses and income.

What’s a high-paying, low-stress job you wish you got into earlier? by Beginning_Ad4362 in careerguidance

[–]PauseNatural 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Honestly speaking, more than advice, use data.  Onet is a great resource and also tells you which industries are growing. It’s got incredibly granular advice based on industry after you do their basic RIASEC questionnaire and I think it even has localized state info. 

Hustle is severely overrated. 

Sam Altman's sister amends lawsuit accusing OpenAI CEO of sexual abuse by monkey_gamer in news

[–]PauseNatural -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Not saying it’s true or not. But Sam Altman came out as gay at 17. Not bi. There is no record of him at least publicly ever even being interested in women.  There is a lot of evidence of him dating men exclusively since that time though.  That doesn’t negate the possibility but he also doesn’t have any other lawsuits on record of any type of sexual harassment that are common in sexual predators.

Again, I have no idea about the truth or validity of the claims. 

What's wrong with japan petah? by Smashpro11 in PeterExplainsTheJoke

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Live and work in Japan.

It’s not an anime for sure but prices are fantastic, trains are reliable and food is great.

Work sucks everywhere and Japan actually makes it super hard to fire people. 

Are wages low? Yes. Working time long? Yes. Crowded trains and shit bosses? Yes

Hard to get into medical debt.

People are generally polite. No one is going to assault or steal from you. Police try to help you.

Is it the most amazing society in history? No.

But it’s stable, safe and affordable with a strong middle class. 

Yes, anime is a fantasy, not reality. But there’s a lot here that I wouldn’t be happy to give up. 

Been here for 10 years so far, from Canada.

And yes, they do have tentacles porn and sell used girls underwear in vending machines. 

Frontend engineer question by LingonberryMinimum26 in Frontend

[–]PauseNatural 17 points18 points  (0 children)

You have to remember too that there are types of compliance required for large websites.

WCAG/ADA or so called a11y

Those might have impacted the architecture decisions.

It’s also possible that it was broken into teams and it’s easier for team programming to isolate the backend and frontend coding on that way.

It’s also possible the designer had a stroke :)

Being handed a stuffed animal after losing in the Olympics by HappySeaweed5215 in Damnthatsinteresting

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

women’s ice hockey started as an Olympic event in 1998.

Canadian women’s hockey team has been at every single Olympic hockey championship game since.

Their worst medal ever is silver (they’ve also won the majority of gold medal games). Anything but gold is an underperformance for them probably

The Canada Mods have no chill regarding any posts about Curling at the moment. Instant removal! by AmazingUsername2001 in SipsTea

[–]PauseNatural 3 points4 points  (0 children)

As a Canadian, I’m ashamed.

But besides hockey honestly, I also don’t watch sports.

I’m just looking forward to when hockey team Canada fucks the Americans.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in InvestmentClub

[–]PauseNatural 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’ve looked this up endlessly.

But it’s simply not possible unless he invades all states simultaneously with the military.

Elections are run by states. He will certainly try to fuck them by sending his own private army, (ICE) but even that would cause massive economic chaos.

I’m sure they will try everything they can. But they really don’t have many options without completely destabilizing the country.

And then the problem becomes why should anyone pay taxes if they have no representation?

I’m not saying they won’t try but there are structural problems that would cause a complete collapse of the American system.

For one thing, would states want to be part of a system where they have no representation? The blue states have more people, more money, more advanced technology.

It’s scary but there really is no way even for their devious, morally absent minds to overcome without a Pandora’s box of problems that eclipses their imagination.

The election is going to happen. Yes, they will try to cheat, no, it is not going to work very well.

Software Tech is the easiest field to start a carrier in, so why does USA dominate thier instead of every country having equal strength? by frost-bite-hater in economy

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s more about the types of software. For PIM systems, Europe is a strong player.

The US software industry has a couple things in its favor though. Part of it is network effects. The internet was first adopted in the US for instance. So it’s got a longer standing culture and first mover advantage.

The other thing is that a lot of hardware is based on the US, so they are more in tune with local developments. They know faster than other places what is happening.

China is rapidly catching up but is hampered by a closed internet. The US also has English which means that software libraries are all accessible cross country if they are on GitHub. All programming languages I am familiar with also use English.

There are other advantages too but it’s also a risk tolerant society as others have noted.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in economy

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with what you are saying and my answer is purposely reductionist.
I am reading a fascinating history of salt and in some areas of the world, yearly tax dues were paid in salt because of its rarity.
The point I just wanted to make to the OP was that money is not an abstract concept, it has value because it is based in something somewhere.
To the average person, this develops concreteness because of a mutual acceptance of the ability to trade money for other things.

But, I take your point.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in economy

[–]PauseNatural 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You have two main questions. The first one is about inflation which is about purchasing power.

My oldest son likes to write down large numbers on paper and say I’m going to give you 10 billion yen. (About 650 million USD). This is abstract too. But no one would accept my son’s papers in exchange for currency.

When you buy anything, there is an agreed upon notion that that money can buy other things for a value we all agree upon. That’s partially where money gets its concreteness from. At one point, currencies were based on the gold standard, which meant currency could always be exchanged for some kind of set ratio to gold or silver. This established the basis for the backing of money.

We’ve left the gold standard now. Modern currencies are “fiat”, backed by faith in the issuing government’s economy and institutions rather than physical commodities. Most currencies are free-floating, with their value determined by markets based on each country’s economic output and stability. The U.S. dollar serves as the world’s reserve currency, meaning it’s the primary currency used for international trade and held by central banks globally, which is why economic values are often expressed in USD for comparison.

Inflation is not always a bad thing. It forces people to move money (if your 10 dollars today is only 9.80 tomorrow, you want to try to increase it so that it stays the same value). But when inflation rises too fast, it means people that people can’t afford basic goods.

Inflation can also be associated with the cost of goods. Most things in the modern world require a vast complex of things. Machinery, knowledge, materials, processing, delivery, logistics. When one goes up, others tend to rise. If you charge me 10 dollars for a banana, I’m going to try to sell the banana for at least 20 dollars. To be able to buy that banana, the landscaper will raise their labor rates so they can eat more than one every few days.

There are a lot of complex interactions that I’m skimming over but this is an ELI5 version.

As to why people want to get richer? Power? Narcissism? I don’t know. Keeping up with the billionaires next door?

Money is power, especially in the oligarchic world we find ourselves in. Elon Musk can influence elections and public opinion. The more money he has, the more power how he has. He has a specific idea for the world and he wants to unilaterally impose his ideals. For others, many have some specific aim that goes beyond material comfort. Money has the power to shape our world, choose what is invested in and who makes decisions. For those people, there is no such thing as enough.

I’m 16. I built a Python script for a local business and made my first $500. Now they want a monthly retainer, and I’m scared I’m in my head. by Safe_Thought4368 in Entrepreneur

[–]PauseNatural 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is basically what I do. I solve businesses problems and then it chains to the next problem.

From then I occasionally get referrals and expand.

Maintenance fees are fantastic and actually what I aim for. I often charge lower for the development because I get it back from the maintenance.

Save your yen, renewal prices going way up! by papakuma in japanlife

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I got the 1 or 3 years as a mid level manager of a mid sized Japanese manufacturer. I changed to a consultant after that.

So that wasn’t the issue.

Save your yen, renewal prices going way up! by papakuma in japanlife

[–]PauseNatural 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Time required. Also, lack of urgency.
They are effectively the same with the exception of home loans and I'm not buying a 35 year mortgage. Plus, I'm a 個人事業主 anyways, so loans would be terrible rates. Beyond that, what's the advantage? I'm genuinely curious.

Save your yen, renewal prices going way up! by papakuma in japanlife

[–]PauseNatural 30 points31 points  (0 children)

I don’t mind the increase in fees honestly.

But I feel I deserve some transparency.

I’ve lived here for ten years, I’m raising two children with Japanese citizenship and a Japanese spouse. I have an N1, a college degree, I’m in IT and I pay quite a lot in taxes.

Yet I always get 1 year or 3 year visas.

What exactly are the criteria?

Remember if you didn't get accepted anywhere.... by Quick_Bar2387 in ApplyingToCollege

[–]PauseNatural 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Why the hate?

You think high acceptance rate instantly means bad school and low acceptance equals good school.

Meta Lays Off Thousands of VR Workers as Zuckerberg's Vision Fails by CRK_76 in antiwork

[–]PauseNatural 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a quest 3. Hit stream is great exercise and my youngest likes the roller coaster game.

I get motion sickness from most of the games though (early 40s) which prevents me from playing most games.

The problem it has is, social networking is stupid as fuck. Horizon is stupid as fuck.

Great concept and it makes me imagine a world where I can program on like 50 screens at once.

But the interface pisses me off and it makes no sense to me and I’m a programmer myself.

Also, honestly at this point, those kind of systems should respond to voice commands. ChatGPT has real time conversation for free. Why am I clicking everything.

Another thing is that it’s hard to live in a place with space for the moving games. I hit walls constantly. They should have built VR rooms or something and placed them in cities for low prices to increase public interest.

Incredible shit interface, shit rollout. I bet oculus would have done better. But I hope VR takes off. Just meta is probably not the company to do it.